STORM2K

According to the NWS in Miami this wave should effect us by Wednesday with good heavy downpours which should fill up the canals and lake areas.The only thing I disagree on is timing, this wave is at 71w and where at 80w.This will not travel 9 degrees in 24 hours.I'm thinking this will be a Thursday event. I've seen over the years when they predict a tropical wave in our area it seems to die out before it gets here and we end up with little to no rain so its hard to forecast these waves because they pulse up and down based on diernal max.

Local News and NWS have been saying Thursday for here.

From NWS Miami...doesn't sound like anything too exciting...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1034 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 71 WEST AND A
SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES IN ITS VICINITY HAS CREATED AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING
NORTH OF 20 NORTH. GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATES THAT SOME OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE
MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LARGELY PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

boca wrote:According to the NWS in Miami this wave should effect us by Wednesday with good heavy downpours which should fill up the canals and lake areas.The only thing I disagree on is timing, this wave is at 71w and where at 80w.This will not travel 9 degrees in 24 hours.I'm thinking this will be a Thursday event. I've seen over the years when they predict a tropical wave in our area it seems to die out before it gets here and we end up with little to no rain so its hard to forecast these waves because they pulse up and down based on diernal max.

Keep the faith Boca you will get it and to her if she cames

The TW is moving fast, and gfs has been persistent that its moisture will reach SFL Wednesday afternoon, central & northern FL on Thursday.

Also, this is not a landfalling event...the rain and instability of this wave could be hundreds of miles away from the 'center' fix at a particular latitude and longitude. It won't have to get to 80w before its effects are felt...which may just be somewhat enhanced rainfall.

boca wrote:According to the NWS in Miami this wave should effect us by Wednesday with good heavy downpours which should fill up the canals and lake areas.The only thing I disagree on is timing, this wave is at 71w and where at 80w.This will not travel 9 degrees in 24 hours.I'm thinking this will be a Thursday event. I've seen over the years when they predict a tropical wave in our area it seems to die out before it gets here and we end up with little to no rain so its hard to forecast these waves because they pulse up and down based on diernal max.

Boca South Florida has been receiving major rainfall over the past week. This wave will only add to a very drenched south florida.

I got 6+ inches in stuart area..I don't need any more!

Please evacuate guys! It's gonna be a bad one!

And Floridians not wanting rain? How things change.

It's either feast or famine in Florida.

Category 5 wrote:Please evacuate guys! It's gonna be a bad one!

And Floridians not wanting rain? How things change.

Depends on your location. Some areas can get 5-6 inches in 2 days, while
areas only a few miles away see nothing. This difference can last for a week or
more, with some neighbors getting weekly totals of 7+ inches, and some other areas
that are further away from seabreeze convergence zones (depending on the synoptic
pattern), getting no rain. Florida weather is like some other members have described it
a "feast or famine" phenomenon. There are exceptions, but most
rainy season weather is "feast or famine". Mother Nature has interesting
ways of setting up synoptics.

Category 5 wrote:Please evacuate guys! It's gonna be a bad one!

And Floridians not wanting rain? How things change.

No maybe they want more ... but sometimes i tell it with my roots and the thoughts based on my culture, you can't compare an island to big country like so it"s interresting see how a weather thing reveals a way of life never mind but be humble and accept life as it going on!

no question...it is very telling when people on a weather board discuss weather that may effect them...

Gustywind wrote:

Category 5 wrote:Please evacuate guys! It's gonna be a bad one!

And Floridians not wanting rain? How things change.

No maybe they want more ... but sometimes i tell it with my roots and the thoughts based on my culture, you can't compare an island to big country like so it"s interresting see how a weather thing reveals a way of life never mind but be humble and accept life as it going on!

gatorcane wrote:Boca South Florida has been receiving major rainfall over the past week. This wave will only add to a very drenched south florida.

If were so wet then why is Lake Okeechobee at 9.29ft when its suppossed to be at 13ft.Why do I still see entire drainage pipes exposed in all the canals.Why are we still on water restrictions at once a week watering times for odd and even address's. No offfense but we need alot more than one week of rain.

No comment....i understood....

It shows how big Florida is and how localized the weather is. I've gone down there and it's amazing. It's like thousands of little micro climates.

boca wrote:

gatorcane wrote:Boca South Florida has been receiving major rainfall over the past week. This wave will only add to a very drenched south florida.

If were so wet then why is Lake Okeechobee at 9.29ft when its suppossed to be at 13ft.Why do I still see entire drainage pipes exposed in all the canals.Why are we still on water restrictions at once a week watering times for odd and even address's. No offfense but we need alot more than one week of rain.

AMEN.

We actually now get to water twice a week but I remember when the drainage pipes were nowhere to be seen (did not know they even existed!) and you could water whenever you wanted. Flood Control District did NOT drain water from Lake O like they did the past couple of years (something I remember reading about here on the board so if I am incorrect, I apologize).

Now, we get a burst of rain for a few days, things are nice and green and the canals fill up. Then we get 2-3 weeks of almost nothing and are back to brown lawns and half filled canals and lakes.

So, when it is rainy season I want rain EVERY SINGLE DAY.
Our soil is so resilient that we sop it up and always have room for more.

It would be SO NICE to water when we wanted and even to have to shut the sprinkles down again because there is TOO much water.
Ah..... the memories......

I was going to post this yesterday but I didn't want to hex the wave. Every year the NWS tries to predict the waves. Using the models of course. The waves are so fickle that it's very hard to predict. Some go poof before coming across Fl. or end up way south. This wave went poof. Next wave.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... e=Fort_Lau

Well that was a bust.It also looks like we won't be getting afternoon storms for a while now, at least here on the east coast.

wow... NAM still aggressive with this wave.. here comes tropical moisture to the central gulf coast

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFC ... ml#picture