Strong Cold front pushing through New England 9/9/08
Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:40 am
There is a strong cold front thats going to be pushing through NE this afternoon. May produce supercells with a Isolated Tornado Here in Maine.
Local Weather Statement:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
455 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-100900-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
455 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO THE SMALL RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.
$$
Storm Prediction Center Statement:
SPC AC 090537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S FL AND THE KEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MOBILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DE-AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY
WHILE LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND A 60-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL ATTEND THIS
TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER
SRN QUEBEC WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
SWRN EXTENSION OF FRONT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE
PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN
STATES.
ELSEWHERE...HURRICANE IKE WILL TRACK NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA INTO THE
SRN GULF OF MEXICO.
...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT IR SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING TODAY
ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY N OF THE DELMARVA.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS...CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG
OVER THE DELMARVA SWD ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 09/12Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO TN VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
INFLOW AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
OVER THE CNTRL/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE
NRN EXTENSION OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. OVERALL
SETUP APPEARS TO FAVOR A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW AND
PERHAPS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
FARTHER S...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND
TO DECREASE...BUT COMPARABLY STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...CAROLINAS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF FRONT TODAY WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
WILL EXIST N OF REGION RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...S FL AND THE KEYS...
PER NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. OUTER ENVELOPE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ATTENDANT TO TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM.
..MEAD/JEWELL.. 09/09/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1234Z (8:34AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Local Weather Statement:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
455 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-100900-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
455 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO THE SMALL RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN THEIR REPORTS.
$$
Storm Prediction Center Statement:
SPC AC 090537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S FL AND THE KEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MOBILE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DE-AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY
WHILE LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL
HEIGHT FALLS AND A 60-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL ATTEND THIS
TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER
SRN QUEBEC WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
SWRN EXTENSION OF FRONT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE
PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY SWD/SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN
STATES.
ELSEWHERE...HURRICANE IKE WILL TRACK NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA INTO THE
SRN GULF OF MEXICO.
...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT IR SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING TODAY
ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY N OF THE DELMARVA.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS...CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG
OVER THE DELMARVA SWD ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 09/12Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO TN VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
INFLOW AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
OVER THE CNTRL/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE
NRN EXTENSION OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. OVERALL
SETUP APPEARS TO FAVOR A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW AND
PERHAPS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
FARTHER S...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND
TO DECREASE...BUT COMPARABLY STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...CAROLINAS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF FRONT TODAY WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
WILL EXIST N OF REGION RESULTING IN RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...S FL AND THE KEYS...
PER NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. OUTER ENVELOPE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ATTENDANT TO TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM.
..MEAD/JEWELL.. 09/09/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1234Z (8:34AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME