STORM2K

It appears we might be looking at a late season outbreak...but it is too early to tell. Moderate risk out.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT POLK
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 944...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL LA...AND ALONG CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO
EASTERN AR. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL HELP ESTABLISH A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH
THE DAY...WHILE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS MAINTAINED. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA/SERN AR/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 944...945...

VALID 091612Z - 091745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 944...945...CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FROM PARTS OF E TX EWD INTO WRN MS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NERN AR/WRN TN SWWD INTO NERN TX. STRONGER STORMS
HOWEVER ARE DEVELOPING ATTM WITHIN A BAND ACROSS LA...EXTENDING FROM
FAR SERN AR SSWWD TO SWRN LA. STORMS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED
WITHIN THIS BAND...WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS EXHIBITING VARYING
DEGREES OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. STRONGEST CELL ATTM IS INDICATED OVER
RAPIDES PARISH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING A PRONOUNCED
MESOCYLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO WITHIN 800 FEET OF GROUND
LEVEL.

WHILE AIRMASS E OF THE MS RIVER REMAINS LESS UNSTABLE...A MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF LA /DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S/
IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. THIS COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..GOSS.. 12/09/2008


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31279502 32359446 34059239 34889088 34279027 32229073
30599161 30409374 31279502

CrazyC83 wrote:MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA/SERN AR/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 944...945...

VALID 091612Z - 091745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 944...945...CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FROM PARTS OF E TX EWD INTO WRN MS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NERN AR/WRN TN SWWD INTO NERN TX. STRONGER STORMS
HOWEVER ARE DEVELOPING ATTM WITHIN A BAND ACROSS LA...EXTENDING FROM
FAR SERN AR SSWWD TO SWRN LA. STORMS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED
WITHIN THIS BAND...WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS EXHIBITING VARYING
DEGREES OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. STRONGEST CELL ATTM IS INDICATED OVER
RAPIDES PARISH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING A PRONOUNCED
MESOCYLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO WITHIN 800 FEET OF GROUND
LEVEL. WHILE AIRMASS E OF THE MS RIVER REMAINS LESS UNSTABLE...A MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF LA /DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S/
IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. THIS COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..GOSS.. 12/09/2008


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31279502 32359446 34059239 34889088 34279027 32229073
30599161 30409374 31279502

Metro Alec in a tornado warning...

Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

LAC059-091815-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0070.000000T0000Z-081209T1815Z/
LA SALLE LA-
1204 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST FOR LA SALLE
PARISH...

AT 1202 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EDEN...OR ABOUT 25
MILES NORTH OF PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SEARCY...TROUT...GOOD PINE AND MIDWAY BY 1210 PM CST...
SUMMERVILLE BY 1215 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
SHREVEPORT.

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1219 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...
EASTERN SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST

* AT 1215 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MANY...OR
ABOUT 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANACOCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES BY 100 PM CST...

Report of a tornado touchdown in Alexandria. Roof damage, powerlines down.

1226 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
LA SALLE AND SOUTHERN CALDWELL PARISHES...

AT 1220 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR SUMMERVILLE...OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON BY 1230 PM CST...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPAULDING BY 1235 PM CST...
HOLLUM AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KELLY BY 1240 PM CST...
COPENHAGEN...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAYSON...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CLARKS AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULPWOOD BY 1245 PM CST...

1232 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

LAC069-085-091900-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0072.000000T0000Z-081209T1900Z/
NATCHITOCHES LA-SABINE LA-
1232 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL SABINE AND CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISHES...

AT 1227 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT JESSUP...OR
ABOUT 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROBELINE...SHAMROCK MILL AND MARTHAVILLE BY 1240 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PROVENCAL BY 1245 PM CST...
HAGEWOOD BY 1250 PM CST...
ALLEN BY 1255 PM CST...
POWHATAN...6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF
GRAPPES BLUFF BY 100 PM CST...

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1233 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNSBORO...
SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANGHAM...

* UNTIL 130 PM CST

* AT 1233 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
ROSEFIELD...OR 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINNSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JIGGER AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIDDIEVILLE BY 1245 PM CST...
WINNSBORO BY 1250 PM CST...
CROWVILLE BY 100 PM CST...

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1241 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HOLLUM...OR
ABOUT 38 MILES EAST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CALDWELL PARISH AT 100 PM CST

1645 ALEXANDRIA RAPIDES LA 3129 9246 ACME REFRIGERATOR ON EMPRIRE DRIVE HAD A CINDER BLOCK WALL ALMOST COMPLETELY BLOWN OUT. REPORTED BY KALB TV5 IN ALEXANDRIA. (LCH)

Under Tornado Damage Reports

Sounds like at least a solid EF2 there.

Looks like possibly 2 at once in that area...from the reports:

1727 ALEXANDRIA RAPIDES LA 3129 9246 TWO TORNADOES ON THE GROUND. REPORTED BY RED CROSS. (LCH)

Damage reported about 30 minutes ago in La Salle Parish, per a recent warning.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
103 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

LAC041-083-091930-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0260.000000T0000Z-081209T1930Z/
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
103 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISHES...

AT 103 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LIDDIEVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WINNSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WINNSBORO BY 110 PM CST...
BASKIN AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANGHAM BY 115 PM CST...
CROWVILLE BY 120 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED DAMAGE ACROSS LA SALLE PARISH NEAR THE
SUMMERVILLE COMMUNITY.

Add a severe thunderstorm warning into the mix....

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 100 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ARKANSAS CITY AROUND 110 PM CST...

&&

Time to get ready for work, everyone down south stay safe today.

2000Z - virtually unchanged:

SPC AC 091943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA INTO WCNTRL MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SERN TX INTO WRN AL...

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...

NUMEROUS DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES...MANY OF THEM
SUPERCELLS...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM SERN TX
INTO NRN/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING ALONG LEADING PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURN WHERE SFC DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70F. ALTHOUGH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA DOES NOT DEPICT A WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT...WARM ADVECTION CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR RASH OF ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH A FAIRLY
STRONG LLJ. 18Z SOUNDING FROM JAN SUPPORTS THIS WITH MOST BUOYANT
PARCELS STILL ROOTED AT 900MB WHILE BOTH LIX AND LCH INDICATE
NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS ARE LIKELY FEEDING THE PRIMARY UPDRAFTS. THE
TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE
2000 J/KG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SFC-1KM ABOVE 30KT. LATEST
RADAR STRUCTURES SUPPORT THIS STRONGLY SHEARED/BUOYANT AIRMASS WITH
SEVERAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE PRODUCED TORNADOES AT TIMES.
GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED STRUCTURES OBSERVED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
LA...THE MODERATE RISK CERTAINLY SEEMS WARRANTED AS NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS NERN LA INTO WCNTRL MS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. TORNADOES...A FEW STRONG...REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. WITH TIME SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS
SHOULD DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WELL
AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT.

..DARROW.. 12/09/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1958Z (2:58PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 945...

VALID 092018Z - 092145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 945 CONTINUES.

THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR WW 0945 OVER A LARGE PART OF
N-CENTRAL LA AND WRN MS. A WW REPLACEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE
AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT WW AND ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SRN LA.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH A DUAL WARM
FRONT STRUCTURE EXTENDING ESEWD FROM A LOW LOCATED NEAR RUE.
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS HAS OCCURRED 50 MI N HOU. SUBSTANTIAL
PRESSURE FALLS /1-2 MB PER HR/ HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF
E-CENTRAL LA EXTENDING NEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. S OF A NWD RETREATING
MARINE WARM FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S F DEG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROKEN SQUALL LINE.
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THIS AIRMASS S
OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER
LCH 18Z RAOB WITH 2200 J/KG MLCAPE. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL LA. ADDITIONAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
EMBEDDED IN ADVANCING QLCS WILL ALSO POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FURTHER N OVER PARTS OF NRN MS...VERY STRONG
0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH
THE MORE ORGANIZED...PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS.

..SMITH.. 12/09/2008


ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30119428 30329451 31099396 31659348 32109276 32679207
33369142 34388990 34548941 34338889 34068866 33358853
31938884 30728947 30008966 29349041 29519160 29979363
30119428