STORM2K

525
fxus62 ktbw 190036
afdtbw


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
736 PM EST sun Jan 18 2009


Update...showers associated with the approaching cold front have
just begun to move into northern Levy County. Radar imagery
indicates the main portion of the showers is moving directly to
the east with the band thinning somewhat over the northeast Gulf.
Satellite imagery supports this general trend as well...and with
the surface low associated with the front over North Carolina...it
is probable that the front will show continued stretching and
subsequent weakening overnight. Still expect the front to move
through overnight...with a wind shift to the west/northwest and a
chance for showers. A more potent front appears to be on track for
late Tuesday into Wednesday with the coldest air of the season
poised to plunge southward over Florida. Model guidance continues
to cool temperatures Tuesday night...with most areas from
Hillsborough/Polk counties northward seeing freezing temperatures. The
low level atmospheric set-up for Tuesday night is again indicating
a scenario where a few flakes of snow may not be out of the
question north of Tampa Bay...as a deck of stratus streams off the
Gulf over western Florida and interacts with the very cold low
level atmosphere. Even model sounding data suggests that if
precipitation is heavy enough evaporative cooling would support
flakes. The situation will truly hinge on how much stratus
develops...its thickness...and where the middle-level winds steer the
deck. Stay tuned to updates as the situation draws closer.


&&


Aviation (19/00z - 20/00z)...VFR with broken middle-high clouds and SW
winds prevail except when a narrow band of rain showers and bkn035 moves
from north to south over the terminals between late night and
shortly after sunrise. Winds become northwest and west behind this band
and gusty in the afternoon.




&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 54 69 50 58 / 50 10 20 10
fmy 57 73 57 65 / 30 20 10 20
gif 53 71 48 58 / 40 10 20 10
srq 56 69 51 59 / 40 10 20 10
bkv 47 68 40 53 / 50 10 20 10
spg 55 68 51 56 / 50 10 20 10


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Monday for Englewood to
Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20
to 60 nm-Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River out 20 nm-Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River out 20 to 60 nm.


Small craft exercise caution from 4 am EST Monday through Monday
evening for Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 nm-Englewood
to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tarpon Springs to
Suwannee River out 20 nm-Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
out 20 to 60 nm.


Small craft exercise caution through Monday evening for Bonita
Beach to Englewood out 20 nm-Bonita Beach to Englewood out
20 to 60 nm.


Small craft exercise caution from 7 am EST Monday through Monday
evening for Tampa Bay waters.


&&


$$


Short term/marine/fire weather...05/cantin
long term/aviation...09/rude

WHOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here's something for you to wish for Tampa Bay Hurricane...

http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/photos/envi ... r/0627.htm

I remember that well. I'm gonna date myself with this one. I was a senior in high school and my parents woke us up to see the snow. My little sister (12 years younger) went running outside to make a snowman and promptly fell on her butt on the frozen walkway. She did manage to make a tiny snowman later though. They pretty much closed down Tampa that day because all of the overpasses were icy and there were wrecks everywhere.

BTW they mention it again this morning. Lets see if they continue to mention it later.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 190824
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
324 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...TURNING MUCH COLDER NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SIGNIF FREEZE POSSIBLE...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN ZONES ATTM...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY 12Z THEN SOUTH
OF FMY BY 18Z. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WILL CARRY ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE WX
GRIDS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINIMAL
TEMP CHANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THE MORE SIGNIF FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS
OUR CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW
WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL HOLD POPS TO 20 PRCNT TONIGHT. IT WILL TURN
WINDY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG CAA THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING
LOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...AND MAYBE 5-8 DEGREES FROM MORNING
LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
DAY MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT NIGHT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RIGHT BEFORE
FROPA.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL TAKE SHAPE LATER TUESDAY...WITH STRONG LLVL CAA
SETTING UP AN UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY THICK STRATO CU DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND MOVING
ONSHORE OVER WC FL ON NW WINDS. NAM AND GFS CLEARLY DEPICT THESE
CLOUDS IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY
MID-LATE TUESDAY...WHICH THEN AFFECT MUCH OF OUR CWA (EXCEPT FAR
INTERIOR ZONES) TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER
WHICH THE AVG WIND IN THAT LAYER WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
PUSH THE CLOUDS SOUTH AND KEEP THEM IN THE GULF. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER IN THIS CASE...THE FREEZING
LEVEL BY 00Z WED WILL BE AROUND 2500 FT WITH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. INITIALLY THIS
WOULD SUGGEST FROZEN PRECIP...BUT THE COLDEST TEMP WITHIN THIS CLOUD
LAYER WILL ONLY BE ABOUT -6C...WHICH NORMALLY ISN`T COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION...LEAVING SUPERCOOLED WATER IN THAT
LAYER (NOTED STRONG INVERSION AND WARMING ABOVE 850 MB). ITS WORTH
NOTING THOUGH...ONE LAST VORT MAX WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS N FL AROUND 00Z. THAT ALONG WITH LLVL CONVECTIVE LIFT
COULD POTENTIALLY COOL THE MOIST LAYER ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...
WHICH WOULD HELP INITIATE THE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION NEEDED TO MIX
THE SUPERCOOLED RAIN DROPS WITH SNOW. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR
FROM PASCO CO SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BUT ITS WELL WORTH MENTIONING THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
OR PELLETS MIXED WITH THE SPRINKLES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD
TUESDAY EVENING.

wow what a rare event if this verifies --- its been since 1989 since there has been any kind of snow event in the Tampa area (correct me if I am wrong).

The local ABC met mentioned it as well, although she isnt the best. When Denis says snow, I might begin to believe. I do say however, I am very excited.

No mention of snow flakes by NWS Jacksonville, NWS Tallahassee, or NWS Melbourne. Update this morning from NWS Tampa Bay makes no mention either (update since discussion posted in this thread). Actully no real mention of precip of any sort...rather anemic front in terms of precip.

The front isnt bring the 'snow' as I understand them. It seems to be moisture after the fact.

if it snows I'm going to college dressed in a yeti costume and running around
yelling like a wild cave man

keep in mind the morning and evening updates from Ruskin are "nowcast" updates. they won't address potential snow in those at this point as it is too far away... expect them to address snow potential in the afternoon disco... due out any time. Fact you are correct with respect to the source of the precip... it is the cold northwest flow coming across the gulf in the wake of the front and has nothing to do with the front itself...kind of lake effect Florida style. As a native to Northeast Ohio, I feel Like Lke Erie has followed me south!

Yea, as a native of the snow belt in NY, I am also very familiar with Lake Effect Snow. This is my first real experience with gulf/ocean effect snow however.

Also in this afternoon's disco...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...TONIGHT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CAUSE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF EFFECTING MAINLY
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ABOUT HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTHWARD. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPRINKLES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CAN`T RULE OUT A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO AS MENTIONED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. OVERALL
THOUGH...IT WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AND BLUSTERY.

I would guess that Pasco and Hernando counties have the best chance of squeezing out a flake or two as they will in that area of favorable onshore flow and have the best chance of temps cold enough to support frozen precip.

folks this is still a possibility -- surprised we are not seeing more posts on this. This event happens about 1 and every 15 years in the Tampa area.

BTW - for our members in the Tampa Bay area, I would like to see some pics if you see snow!

NWS Tampa Bay removed snow flake mention in update this pm...

NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE E GULF TO PRODUCE STRATO CU DECK WITH A
FEW COLD SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BUT THATS ABOUT IT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

The snow chance is almost entirely gone. The clouds are clearing.