STORM2K

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National Weather Service

Drought Information Statement
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02
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000
AXUS72 KMFL 010956 RRA
DGTMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-040000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SUN FEB 1 2009

...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER EAST COAST METRO
AREAS...
...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THE DRY SEASON OF 2008-09. THIS HAS LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

HERE ARE SOME YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS...AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE 13 MONTH PERIOD COVERING FROM
JANUARY 1, 2008 TO JANUARY 31, 2009...AND THE DRY SEASON OF 2008-09.

AIRPORTS 13 MONTH : 13 MONTH : DRY : DRY TOTALS DEPARTURES
TOTALS DEPARTURES SEASON SEASON 2008-09
TOTAL 2008-09 2008-09 DEP.

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 60.61 : + 0.25 : 1.59 : -5.90
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 51.32 : -15.81 : 0.76 : -9.40
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 59.32 : - 5.82 : 2.76 : -9.68
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 48.43 : - 5.48 : 1.09 : -4.44

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE : 47.85 : -3.39 : 1.91 : -4.68
DEVILS GARDEN : 65.87 : -0.68 : 1.92 : -4.73
CLEWISTON : 52.15 : +4.33 : 1.80 : -5.22
BELLE GLADE : 57.91 : -5.33 : 1.34 : -5.68
MOORE HAVEN LOCK : 66.40 : +16.21 : 2.03 : -5.20
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 54.17 : +2.80 : 1.34 : -4.69
MIAMI BEACH : 56.29 : +7.25 : 1.35 : -6.39

These numbers are mind boggleing.We haven't been able to get moisture with these cold fronts due to our low latitude and mostly La Nina.What I mean by low latitude is these fronts are well removed from the parent low that attatched to them.

Florida with la nina may have big wild fires
this year...looking at australia...I get quite concerned...

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Florida with la nina may have big wild fires
this year...looking at australia...I get quite concerned...

They showed the Australia wild fires on satelite and they were impressive looking.That might happen to Florida unless we can get rain and soon. We can't wait until May or June.

WildFire ALREADY HAPPENING in Florida:
http://blogs.tampabay.com/breakingnews/ ... .html#more

February 09, 2009
Brush fire blazes in southeast Hillsborough County
TAMPA -- Firefighters are battling a 2,000- to 3,000-feet line of flames at a brush fire in southeast Hillsborough County tonight, according to Hillsborough County Fire Rescue.

The fire apparently started southeast of Hartford and 50th streets near the Kinder Morgan Hartford Terminal.

At least 13 units are on scene, authorities said, and an additional 30 firefighters have been called. The area is difficult to access because of railroad tracks.

No injuries have been reported and the cause is not yet determined, although dry conditions led authorities to warn Bay area residents of fire risk today.

Elisabeth Parker, Times staff writer

Areas of 'moderate drought' expanding...includes metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade and all of Tampa bay area

I'm not too worried about the drought, especially in Southern Florida. It is the DRY season for us. Most of Florida saw a very nice soaking from the last arctic front that came through. We are likely going to have several more fronts come through with some rain with some of them. I am worried though about NE Florida and the West Coast of Florida including the Tampa Bay area as drought conditions could linger well into Summer.

One thing to watch for are fronts that stall over Southern Florida. As we move into Spring, the likelyhood increases that these fronts stall and create convergence for showers. Once the rainy season gets here in June (or even as early as mid May depending upon when it starts, varies by year here in South Florida), the rains should come.

As long as we see a deep trough along the Eastern CONUS for the rainy season which seems to be dominating the long-wave pattern lately, South Florida will see a SW flow which will cause most of the thunderstorms to generate along the East Coast metro areas instead of the West Coast of Florida. I'm expecting this kind of pattern for the early Spring months May-June, and some of July with the pattern changing to deep easterly flow for August with occasional breaks in the long-wave pattern inbetween.

Im gonna say were gonna have a Dry April and May once again....Just like every year...And if we get nothing between now and then there could be issues...

But on the other hand Mother nature always balances herself out...IE(Fay)

Now if we can only get them NOT to drain the lake this time around..

Very true that it is the 'dry season' but all indicators are that this is an 'outlier' version of the dry season in terms of ongoing lack of sustained rainfall....the november-january period has been the driest in over 100 years of records in Fort Lauderdale, the 3rd driest in Naples and West Palm, and the 5th driest in Miami. What we are talking about is well beyond normal dry season conditions.

February is continuing that trend...from 2/1-2/9, Miami and West Palm have seen 0.11" of rain (0.56" below normal in Miami and 0.76" below normal in West Palm for the normal 2/1-2/9 period). Fort Lauderdale has seen 0.22" of rain so far (0.68" below normal). That brings the total rain in Fort Lauderdale since November 1....101 days...to 0.98"!!!

Going back to January 2008, Fort Lauderdale (airport) has seen just under 45" of rain....that is 21.95" below normal....we are talking feet of rain needed to just get back to where we need to be.

Lake Okechobee, although higher than this time last year (but still about 2' below normal), has dropped about 1' since 1/1/09 and is a bit over a foot away from "Water Shortage Management" stage.

http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/plots/okehp.gif


In fact the NWS Miami released this statement last week...


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...VERY DRY JANUARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FIRE DANGER INCREASING...

VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY, [b]CONTINUING A TREND OF
MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL GOING BACK TO NOVEMBER 2008. ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL COLD FRONTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH, LITTLE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED THESE FRONTS WHICH WERE THEN FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY AIR.

AS A RESULT, SEVERAL REPORTING STATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA RECORDED
SOME OF THE TOP TEN DRIEST ALL TIME MONTHLY TOTALS FOR JANUARY.
THESE INCLUDE WEST PALM BEACH WHICH RECORDED ITS DRIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD AND MIAMI BEACH WHICH RECORDED ITS SECOND DRIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD.

THE THREE-MONTH RAINFALL TOTALS INCLUDING THE MONTHS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 2008 AND JANUARY 2009
ARE AMONG THE LOWEST ON RECORD AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORT LAUDERDALE RECORDED ITS
DRIEST NOVEMBER-JANUARY ON RECORD, WITH SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS FALLING
IN THE TOP 5 ALL TIME DRIEST NOVEMBER-JANUARY PERIOD.

MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY RECEIVED ABOUT 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE PROBABLE CAUSE OF THIS PROLONGED DRY SPELL IS THE LA NIÑA PATTERN WHICH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
DURING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY LEADS TO MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL AND DRY AIR, THEREBY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INDICES
OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE NORMAL START OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WILDFIRE SEASON IS IN MARCH, BUT THE VERY HIGH VALUES CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED ARE WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS LA NIÑA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SPRING. THESE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS WILL
EXACERBATE THE WILDFIRE THREAT OVER THE REGION, AND FIRE DANGER LEVELS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. ALL PERSONS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO
TAKE MEASURES TO PREVENT WILDFIRES DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

FURTHERMORE, IF THESE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS FORECAST, ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD LIKELY BE PLACED UNDER DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE COMING WEEKS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION, PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
MOLLEDA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/news/Dry%20Winter%2008-09.pdf

gatorcane wrote:I'm not too worried about the drought, especially in Southern Florida. It is the DRY season for us. Most of Florida saw a very nice soaking from the last arctic front that came through. We are likely going to have several more fronts come through with some rain with some of them. I am worried though about NE Florida and the West Coast of Florida including the Tampa Bay area as drought conditions could linger well into Summer.

One thing to watch for are fronts that stall over Southern Florida. As we move into Spring, the likelyhood increases that these fronts stall and create convergence for showers. Once the rainy season gets here in June (or even as early as mid May depending upon when it starts, varies by year here in South Florida), the rains should come.

As long as we see a deep trough along the Eastern CONUS for the rainy season which seems to be dominating the long-wave pattern lately, South Florida will see a SW flow which will cause most of the thunderstorms to generate along the East Coast metro areas instead of the West Coast of Florida. I'm expecting this kind of pattern for the early Spring months May-June, and some of July with the pattern changing to deep easterly flow for August with occasional breaks in the long-wave pattern inbetween.

Fay and Hanna were the only systems that gave us any appreciable measureable rainfall.Actually Hanna gave us a soaking too as it was about 100 miles NE of S FL.Those were the only rain producing systems of 2008 and now 2009.This arctic front didn't do much here in Boca Raton, it rained for 20 minutes.I don't see anything on the horizon with the La Nina pattern we've been stuck in for 2 years now.

Latest update from NWS Miami:

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Drought Information Statement
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06
[Printable]

000
AXUS72 KMFL 170851
DGTMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-200000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
430 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2009

...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF EVERGLADES...
...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FIRE DANGER REMAINS SEVERE TO EXTREME AREA WIDE...

SYNOPSIS...

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS HAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
PAST THREE WEEKS. HOWEVER THESE FRONTS WERE RELATIVELY DRY IN
NATURE, RESULTING IN LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST AREAS ONLY SAW A TRACE TO TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF METRO PALM BEACH AND METRO MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF OF
AN INCH. ISOLATED AREAS OF CENTRAL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY SAW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH.

HERE ARE SOME YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS...AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE 16 MONTH PERIOD COVERING FROM
JANUARY 1, 2008 TO APRIL 16, 2009...AND THE DRY SEASON OF 2008-09.

AIRPORTS 16 MONTH : 16 MONTH : DRY : DRY
TOTALS DEPARTURES SEASON SEASON
TOTAL 2008-09 2008-09 DEP.

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 63.20 : -4.13 : 3.75 : -10.03
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 54.80 : -19.75 : 4.24 : -13.34
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 61.83 : -11.93 : 5.27 : -15.25
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 49.63 : -9.49 : 2.29 : -8.45

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE : 48.26 : -8.08 : 2.32 : -9.37
DEVILS GARDEN : 66.62 : -6.03 : 2.67 : -9.88
CLEWISTON : 52.88 : +0.05 : 2.38 : -9.80
BELLE GLADE : 59.19 : -9.83 : 2.62 : -10.18
MOORE HAVEN LOCK : 68.12 : +11.63 : 3.75 : -9.74
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 56.12 : -1.46 : 3.03 : -8.95
MIAMI BEACH : 61.67 : +6.73 : 6.21 : -6.91

THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE THE LAST
WEEK OF MARCH MEANS THAT MOST OF THE EVERGLADES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
HAVE BEEN PLACED IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT STATUS (D3), WITH THE REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS (D2). AREAS OF PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAINFALL IN MID-MARCH
HAVE SINCE SEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN, THEREFORE THESE AREAS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE REST OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS IN THE
SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

WELLS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WERE STARTING TO FALL INTO THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WELLS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS HAVE STARTED TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
WERE RUNNING AT 10 TO 30 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WAS 11.69 FEET, WHICH IS ABOUT
2.3 FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FISHEATING CREEK
WAS AROUND 0.15 FEET WHICH WAS 3 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL LEVEL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) HAS INCREASED SINCE LATE MARCH
DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THE ENTIRE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS, AS WELL AS GLADES COUNTY, HAVE INCREASED TO THE 650 TO
700 RANGE, WHILE COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES REMAINED IN THE 700 TO
750 RANGE. THIS KEEPS THE FIRE DANGER IN THE SEVERE RANGE FOR MOST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WHERE THEY
ARE IN THE EXTREME RANGE. KBDI VALUES OF 650 OR HIGHER ARE
INDICATIVE OF DESERT-LIKE DRYNESS.

THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS PLACED A BURN BAN
INTO EFFECT FOR ALL PUBLIC LAND AREAS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE IS
ALSO A BURN BAN IN EFFECT FOR GLADES, HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
DUE TO THE SEVERE TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

RESPONSE/ACTIONS...

THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS KEPT THE WATER
RESTRICTION AT A PHASE TWO OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIMIT
MOST RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL WATER USAGE TO TWICE A WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
14 DAYS IS FOR AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE DRY SEASON WHICH
ENCOMPASSES THE MONTH OF APRIL. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S
LONGER TERM OUTLOOK FOR MAY THROUGH JUNE SHOWS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
MOST OF MAY TYPICALLY FALLS IN THE SOUTH FLORIDA DRY SEASON, AND
THUS THE REGION IS PRONE TO EXTENDED DRY SPELLS. THESE EXTENDED DRY
SPELLS, COMBINED WITH RISING TEMPERATURES, MAY LEAD TO INCREASING
FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS BEFORE THE RAINY SEASON GETS
UNDERWAY IN LATE MAY OR EARLY JUNE.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND THE END OF APRIL UNLESS CONDITIONS
CHANGE BEFORE THEN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

BAXTER/MOLLEDA















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Lushine May around the corner. Last year was inconclusive. The track was there but the hurricane wasn't.

extreme drought conditions now present in Western Broward and Miami-Dade metro areas

000
AXUS72 KMFL 090324 CCA
DGTMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-110000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...EXTREME DROUGHT AREA EXPANDED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

...FIRE DANGER REMAINS SEVERE TO EXTREME AREA WIDE...

SYNOPSIS...

A PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS
KEPT SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A MAINLY DRY EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE
LAST 7 DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THIS TIME WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
AVERAGE. HOWEVER, A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST HENDRY AND EASTERN
COLLIER COUNTIES SAW BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

HERE ARE SOME YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS...NORMALS...AND DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE 16 MONTH PERIOD COVERING FROM
JANUARY 1, 2008 TO MAY 7, 2009...AS WELL AS THE DRY SEASON OF 2008-09.

AIRPORTS 16 MONTH : 16 MONTH : DRY : DRY
TOTALS DEPARTURES SEASON SEASON
TOTAL 2008-09 2008-09 DEP.

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 64.11 : -5.87 : 4.66 : -11.77
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 55.30 : -22.33 : 4.74 : -15.92
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 63.35 : -13.11 : 6.79 : -16.43
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 49.63 : -11.13 : 2.29 : -10.09

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE : 48.89 : -9.25 : 2.95 : -10.58
DEVILS GARDEN : 67.07 : -7.44 : 3.12 : -11.29
CLEWISTON : 52.88 : -1.79 : 2.38 : -11.64
BELLE GLADE : 59.31 : -11.55 : 2.74 : -11.90
MOORE HAVEN LOCK : 68.12 : +9.79 : 3.75 : -11.58
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 56.65 : -3.08 : 3.56 : -10.57
MIAMI BEACH : 62.37 : +5.02 : 6.91 : -8.62

THE DRY PATTERN OBSERVED IN THE LAST PART OF APRIL AND FIRST WEEK OF
MAY FOLLOWS THE RECORD DRY WINTER SEASON OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. ALL TIME DRIEST WINTER RECORDS WERE SET AT MIAMI AND FORT
LAUDERDALE, AND THE SECOND DRIEST WINTER WAS ESTABLISHED AT WEST
PALM BEACH AND NAPLES. IN FACT, THE OVERALL DRY SEASON RAINFALL
TOTALS SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2008 ARE THE SECOND LOWEST ON RECORD AT
MOST LOCATIONS (1971 BEING THE DRIEST DRY SEASON ON RECORD).

THE CONTINUED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MEANS
THAT THE EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
EVERGLADES. IN ADDITION, THE AREA OF EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN METRO AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF GLADES COUNTY. THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES UNDER A SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)
STATUS.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

WELLS OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WERE IN THE LOWEST 10
PERCENT OF NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE REST OF THE EAST
COAST METRO WELLS REMAINED IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
WERE RUNNING AT 10 TO 30 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...EXCEPT FOR UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY WHERE IT WAS RUNNING THE LOWEST 10 PERCENT LEVEL. THE LEVEL
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WAS AROUND 10.8 FEET, WHICH IS ABOUT 2.6 FEET
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FISHEATING CREEK WAS AROUND
-0.35 FEET WHICH IS NOW READING THE POOL LEVEL AS THE CREEK IS DRY.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) HAS REMAINED NEARLY CONSTANT
SINCE MID-APRIL DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL. THE ENTIRE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS, AS WELL AS GLADES COUNTY, IS IN THE 650 TO 700 RANGE,
WHILE COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES REMAINED IN THE 700 TO 750 RANGE.
THIS KEEPS THE FIRE DANGER LEVELS IN THE SEVERE RANGE FOR MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES WHERE THEY ARE
IN THE EXTREME RANGE. KBDI VALUES OF 650 OR HIGHER ARE INDICATIVE OF
DESERT-LIKE DRYNESS.

THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS KEPT THE BURN BAN IN
PLACE FOR ALL PUBLIC LAND AREAS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO
A BURN BAN IN EFFECT FOR GLADES, HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES DUE
TO THE SEVERE TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

RESPONSE/ACTIONS...

THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS PUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN METRO AREAS SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST 216TH STREET IN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY IN A PHASE THREE WATER USAGE RESTRICTION...WHICH LIMITS MOST
RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL WATER USAGE TO ONCE A WEEK. THE REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN A PHASE TWO WATER USAGE RESTRICTION WHICH
LIMITS RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL WATER USAGE TO TWICE A WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA WARM
AND MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
14 DAYS IS FOR OR AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE DRY SEASON WHICH
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE MONTH OF MAY. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER`S LONGER TERM OUTLOOK FOR JUNE AND JULY SHOWS AN EQUAL CHANCE
OF SEEING ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL, WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION BY AUGUST. IT SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF MAY TYPICALLY FALLS IN THE SOUTH FLORIDA DRY
SEASON, AND THUS THE REGION IS PRONE TO EXTENDED DRY SPELLS. THESE
EXTENDED DRY SPELLS, COMBINED WITH RISING TEMPERATURES, MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS BEFORE THE RAINY
SEASON GETS UNDERWAY IN LATE MAY OR EARLY JUNE.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF MAY UNLESS CONDITIONS
CHANGE BEFORE THEN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

BAXTER

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