STORM2K

I'd figure I would start this thread for fun since we have a winter cancel thread for Texas in the winter board.We haven't had rain since November other than the little event early in Feb due to that arctic front we had.Lets hope that we can get something down here before June.

boca wrote:I'd figure I would start this thread for fun since we have a winter cancel thread for Texas in the winter board.We haven't had rain since November other than the little event early in Feb due to that arctic front we had.Lets hope that we can get something down here before June.

OK, Daytona is exactly 'South Florida', but are you trying to jinx the Great American Race?

BTW, I never could figure out why the PSU e-Wall page cuts Florida off around DAB

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Drought Information Statement
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04
[Printable]

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

THE WELLS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WERE 10 TO 30 PERCENT BELOW THE NORMAL LEVEL...WHILE THE
REST OF THE WELLS WERE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

THE UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WERE STILL AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WAS 13.16 FEET.
THIS IS ABOUT 1.4 FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
FISHEATING CREEK WAS AROUND 0.95 FEET WHICH WAS 18 PERCENT OF THE
NORMAL LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WAS BETWEEN 650
TO 700...EXCEPT 600 TO 650 OVER MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES. THIS STILL INDICATES THAT THE FIRE DANGER IS IN THE
SEVERE RANGE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESPONSE/ACTIONS...

THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS KEPT THE WATER
RESTRICTION AT A PHASE II OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIMIT
MOST RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL WATER USAGE TO TWICE A WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
14 DAYS IS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH AND APRIL IS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND THE END OF FEBRUARY UNLESS CONDITIONS
CHANGE BEFORE THEN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

It looks like we will most likely stay dry thru early spring.Maybe a sprinkle here and there,nothing significant.

boca wrote:I'd figure I would start this thread for fun since we have a winter cancel thread for Texas in the winter board.We haven't had rain since November other than the little event early in Feb due to that arctic front we had.Lets hope that we can get something down here before June.

Hi Boca, some generous rains fell in many areas of northern Palm Beach County yesterday afternoon as SW flow collided with SE seabreeze off Atlantic causing lift. It looked alot like a preview of the summer rainy season. There are already hints of this type of pattern developing. Give it about 3 more months and we should see afternoon and evening thunderstorms blowing up along the East Coast of Florida with SW flow at the mid-levels and seabreeze development along the low-levels.
Rainfall along East Coast metro areas would happen between 2:00pm and 5:00pm in this type of pattern.

The deep easterly flow will take a bit longer to develop this year and it looks like sometime in mid August at this point. Then expect nocturnal showers along SE coast metro areas with all of the big development inland and along the West coast of Florida. However, the presence of short-waves and upper-level lows traversing the U.S. Canadian border for much of this summer (especially the first half) will cause many breaks in this pattern with return to SW flow across Southern Florida.

Well, I had some hope for rain as a lot of heavy clouds blew through here in the last hour and a half. No joy, though.

KBDI Drought Index continues to go from bad to worse across the southern peninsula...more and more areas in the 700-749 range (800 being the highest value on the scale)...worst across Lake O region

http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/im ... -state.png

Rain reported Sun Feb 15/2009 from rain gauges in Florida:-

Okeechobee 0.22"
West Kendall 0.25"
Ft Pierce 0.26"
Juno Beach 0.28"
Ponce Inlet 0.41"
Perrine 0.52"


-justin-

What's going to ultimately save us is another Fay type storm not too strong to produce the same type of rainfall. I'm counting on afternoon storms to kick in once we get to mid May to start filing up Lake O again. The fire season might be as severe as 1998 because their was a fire just last week in Hillsboro county and were still in Feb as the fire season doesn't usually get going until April. Lets hope for a Miller A type storm system for the time being.

Well there you go. Rain cancel again for South Florida with this cold front it would appear. Another chance (even better) expected end of this weekend though.

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
One product issued by NWS for: 4 Miles SW Palm City FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
437 PM EST THU FEB 19 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-192300-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
437 PM EST THU FEB 19 2009

.NOW...
...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING...

THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PUSHED INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF ORLANDO. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN AND
SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES TODAY AND ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 6 PM. THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS IS DECREASING WITH TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE
MARTIN COUNTY MAY NOT SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
$$

Colors on the KBDI map continue to head in the wrong direction across the southern and central peninsula....rain chances for tonight in south florida are 10%. Between 20-30% on Sunday night into Monday followed by sunny days with a warming trend....all in all, low chances to make much of a dent in the rain deficit and growing drought.





URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
433 PM EST THU FEB 19 2009

METRO PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE LOWER 70S...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
RH`S ARE NOW FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE DURATION OF CRITICAL RH`S REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS

I'm sure by Sunday/Monday timeframe we won't even have a rain chance the way things are progressing this year.

Didn't even take that long to just about get rid of the rain chances for the next week.....now down to 10% chance on Sunday of scattered showers and a 20% chance monday night.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=139

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
620 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.. PLEASANT AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE, IF ANY,
PRECIP EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRNT MAY
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVR
ERN U.S., HOWEVER, MOST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH MOVE NEWD AND THIS
COULD LEAVE THE FRONT STALLING OVER S-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
DISSIPATING WITHOUT MAKING IT TO MAINLAND S. FLORIDA. WEAK RIDGING
IN THE UPPER LVLS WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER WEAK/MOD
SUBSIDENCE. WL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE MON/MON NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHWR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

boca wrote:I'm sure by Sunday/Monday timeframe we won't even have a rain chance the way things are progressing this year.

Looking quite likely that February will be the 4th month in a row that Miami and Fort Lauderdale have seen under 1" of rain for the month:

Fort Lauderdale
Nov 2008 - 0.59" (normal is 4.29")
Dec 2008 - 0.13" (normal is 2.65")
Jan 2009 - 0.04" (normal is 2.94")
Feb 2009 - 0.22" (as of 2/19) (normal is 2.70" for the month)

Miami
Nov 2008 - 0.97" (normal is 3.43")
Dec 2008 - 0.28" (normal is 2.18")
Jan 2009 - 0.34" (normal is 1.88")
Feb 2009 - 0.12" (as of 2/19) (normal is 2.07" for the month)

jinftl wrote:Looking quite likely that February will be the 4th month in a row that Miami and Fort Lauderdale have seen under 1" of rain for the month:

Fort Lauderdale
Nov 2008 - 0.59" (normal is 4.29")
Dec 2008 - 0.13" (normal is 2.65")
Jan 2009 - 0.04" (normal is 2.94")
Feb 2009 - 0.22" (as of 2/19) (normal is 2.70" for the month)

Miami
Nov 2008 - 0.97" (normal is 3.43")
Dec 2008 - 0.28" (normal is 2.18")
Jan 2009 - 0.34" (normal is 1.88")
Feb 2009 - 0.12" (as of 2/19) (normal is 2.07" for the month)

Yea getting the feeling SFL is going to slide into a pretty signifigant drought in the coming months...

I like to know if someone has the rainfall stats for Jan -May 1998 timeframe.I have a feeling that Florida will be making national news week after week from brush fires and this year will surpass the ugly fire season we had in 1998.

Here's the info off the NWS Miami with rainfall from this past fall thru present.Looking at these rain totals I don't think you'll disagree with my above statement with brush fires.

HERE IS THE LATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DEPARTURES FOR THE DRY
SEASON 2008-09 AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DEPARTURES FOR THE
2009 YEAR.

TOTAL RAINFALL DEPARTURE TOTAL DRY SEASON DEPATURE DRY SEASON
2009 2009 2008/2009 2008/2009

MIA 0.46 -2.85 1.71 -7.21
FLL 0.26 -4.66 0.98 -11.16
PBI 0.25 -5.31 2.90 -11.35
APF 0.47 -3.11 1.40 -5.70
MIAMI BEACH 0.19 -3.83 1.47 -7.85

&&

A few weeks old...and conditions have worsened since....but this gives some idea of where this dry period is ranking with other 'dry seasons'.....and the results are showing this an extreme outlier event in terms of magnitude of just how dry it has been.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...VERY DRY JANUARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FIRE DANGER INCREASING...

VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY, CONTINUING A TREND OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL GOING BACK TO NOVEMBER 2008. ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL COLD FRONTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH, LITTLE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED THESE FRONTS WHICH WERE THEN FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY AIR.

AS A RESULT, SEVERAL REPORTING STATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA RECORDED. SOME OF THE TOP TEN DRIEST ALL TIME MONTHLY TOTALS FOR JANUARY. THESE INCLUDE WEST PALM BEACH WHICH RECORDED ITS DRIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD AND MIAMI BEACH WHICH RECORDED ITS SECOND DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD.

THE THREE-MONTH RAINFALL TOTALS INCLUDING THE MONTHS OF NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 2008 AND JANUARY 2009 ARE AMONG THE LOWEST ON RECORD AT MOST LOCATIONS. FORT LAUDERDALE RECORDED ITS DRIEST NOVEMBER-JANUARY ON RECORD, WITH SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS FALLING IN THE TOP 5 ALL TIME DRIEST NOVEMBER-JANUARY PERIOD. MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY RECEIVED ABOUT 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING ARE THE NOVEMBER-JANUARY TOTALS, DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND DRIEST ALL TIME RANK:

SITE PRECIP SINCE NOV 1 DEPARTURE RANK
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL 1.59 - 5.90 5TH
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL 2.76 - 9.68 3RD
FORT LAUDERDALE INTL 0.76 - 9.40 1ST
NAPLES REGIONAL 1.08 - 4.44 3RD
MIAMI BEACH 1.35 - 6.39 4TH

THE PROBABLE CAUSE OF THIS PROLONGED DRY SPELL IS THE LA NIÑA PATTERN WHICH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY LEADS TO MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COOL AND DRY AIR, THEREBY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS LA NIÑA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SPRING. THESE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXACERBATE THE WILDFIRE THREAT OVER THE REGION, AND FIRE DANGER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. ALL PERSONS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO TAKE MEASURES TO PREVENT WILDFIRES DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. FURTHERMORE, IF THESE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS FORECAST, ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD LIKELY BE PLACED UNDER DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE COMING WEEKS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION, PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
MOLLEDA

Link is to archive of precip data by month for Miami since 1900!

http://coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center/prcpdat/miami.html

The only other timeframe that had a Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb where each month had under 1" of rain in Miami was November 1922 - February 1923 & November 1988 - February 1989.

boca wrote:I like to know if someone has the rainfall stats for Jan -May 1998 timeframe.I have a feeling that Florida will be making national news week after week from brush fires and this year will surpass the ugly fire season we had in 1998.

Here's the info off the NWS Miami with rainfall from this past fall thru present.Looking at these rain totals I don't think you'll disagree with my above statement with brush fires.

HERE IS THE LATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DEPARTURES FOR THE DRY
SEASON 2008-09 AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DEPARTURES FOR THE
2009 YEAR.

TOTAL RAINFALL DEPARTURE TOTAL DRY SEASON DEPATURE DRY SEASON
2009 2009 2008/2009 2008/2009

MIA 0.46 -2.85 1.71 -7.21
FLL 0.26 -4.66 0.98 -11.16
PBI 0.25 -5.31 2.90 -11.35
APF 0.47 -3.11 1.40 -5.70
MIAMI BEACH 0.19 -3.83 1.47 -7.85

&&

Another strong cold front but very little, if any rainfall is going to fall here in South Florida....

Still once late May and June are here rainfall should come back in a hurry with the summer rainy season in full swing by late June.

It's what happens until then....including water restrictions and brushfires...esp when we enter the climatological fire season mid-month that could make headlines....fires already have broken out (all small so far thankfully) near Lake O and over the Everglades.....this will only get much worse if we have to wait 10-14 weeks for any appreciable rain.

gatorcane wrote:Another strong cold front but very little, if any rainfall is going to fall here in South Florida....

Still once late May and June are here rainfall should come back in a hurry with the summer rainy season in full swing by late June.

Generous rains continue to head into Palm Beach County this morning off the Gulf Stream.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

10 weeks until the start of the rainy season and by end of June this drought talk will be a just a memory as I am expecting a very wet June for SE Florida.