U.S. Drought Monitor

[Stephanie]

Yeah, I hate having it rain the whole weekend, but I know we've been behind in precipitation this year, about 5+ inches. I don't want us to to go into summer with a rain deficit.

I'll bet that the beneficial rain that we received before the 90 degree heat wave was all sucked up by the trees and shrubs.

[somethingfunny]

The Texas map will change drastically with the next update, but South/Central TX is still extremely dry.

[cycloneye]

National Drought Summary -- May 5, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Widespread precipitation over many regions of the nation this week has led to large-scale improvements in drought conditions. These short-term improvements are reflected in the West, Plains and mid-Atlantic regions. Substantial, near-record rainfall in Oklahoma and northern Texas contributed to 3-category improvements in this region.

The Plains: The area of most significant precipitation of the week was along the Red River of Oklahoma and Texas. The Burneyville, OK mesonet site reported an incredible 24-hour total of 12.89 inches, the fourth highest in the state’s history, bringing the week’s total to over 15 inches. This, in combination with equally impressive storm totals in the area, generated a two- to three-category improvement throughout much of the region, similar to what might result from a tropical storm. Widespread and significant changes spilled over the border into Texas, along a line roughly from Wichita Falls to College Station and eastward. An expansion of extreme drought (D3) was made in the northern counties of Shackelford and Stevens, creating a steep gradient from wet to dry in this region.

In North Dakota, soil moisture has improved in the northwestern part of the state, but has worsened in the southwest. D0 was introduced in these drier counties, and removed from the wetter northwestern areas. Nebraska and Kansas have had a good dose of rainfall across their border that returned this area to near-normal conditions. Areas of abnormal dryness remain in central Kansas and east central Nebraska.

The South: Florida continues to experience extreme drought throughout the southern reaches of the state. D3 was expanded this week to include western Glades county, and eastward into the metropolitan areas in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. This expansion reflects the large precipitation deficits in these areas, including shortages of over 11 inches in Miami and over 15 inches in Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach. High fire danger is pervasive, and soil moisture ranges from one to five percent of normal in these interior areas. In Mississippi, substantial rainfall this week of two to eight inches brought relief to the western part of the state, ameliorating the previously abnormally dry conditions.

The East: Beneficial rains swept through the Ohio River Valley and mid-Atlantic states this week. This recovery in drought conditions meant improvements in a significant portion of the previously abnormally dry areas in Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware and southern New Jersey. Local rainfall totals of over 4 inches were observed in the heart of this area in eastern Maryland and northern West Virginia. In the Appalachian mountains, the area of D0 and D1 were reduced along the Tennessee/North Carolina border as well.

The West: The Sierra Nevada mountains of northern California were the recipients of significant rainfall the first few days in May. Some weekly totals were over 7.5 inches in select areas for the week in the western foothills. Forage and rangeland reports are near normal for this time of year, and California Department of Water Resources’ northern Sierra precipitation index is near normal for the water year (since October 1). A small area of short-term improvement in drought conditions west of Lake Tahoe led to a one-category change in central El Dorado, Placer and Nevada counties. A very tight gradient of precipitation over the crest to the lee of the Sierra Nevada contributed to the retention of D2 in northeastern California and northwestern Nevada.

Elsewhere, a review of water conditions in Utah revealed near to above normal precipitation for the water year to date in many counties that had been in the abnormally dry category. In addition, streamflow is near normal and reservoir storage is rising as a result. Improvements were made to reflect no drought conditions in several western, northern, and northeastern counties in Utah and into eastern Nevada. In Arizona, abnormally dry conditions persist and the east central part of the state was degraded to moderate drought, reflecting deficits in precipitation the last few months.

After a weather system pushed through Montana on April 27-29, improvements were warranted on this week’s map. A large area of abnormally dry conditions was removed from central and eastern Montana. Moderate drought remains in northwestern Montana.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: No changes were introduced this week in these regions.

Looking Ahead: The next week’s Drought Monitor period is starting off wet in the Tennessee River Valley, with a stationary front stretching from east Texas to Virginia. This system will bring precipitation to areas that have been recovering from drought in the Carolinas and Virginia, in addition to those areas already drought-free in Arkansas and Tennessee. Rain and high elevation snow will come to the Pacific Northwest during this same period. The system in the East will eventually work its way off the coast as high pressure from the central United States moves in. Oklahoma could be on track again to receive more rainfall during the next week.

For the next six to ten day period, models suggest a ridge setting in over the Aleutians, bringing above average temperatures in southwest Alaska. Above normal temperatures are predicted from New Mexico to New York and most of the southeast. Below normal temperatures will help slow the mountain snowpack east of the Cascades and in the northern Rockies. The precipitation outlook during this same period includes below average areas along all coastal areas, including the Pacific, Gulf, and Atlantic coasts. Above average precipitation in the next six to ten days may include the region from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes states.

[Ptarmigan]

The Texas map will change drastically with the next update, but South/Central TX is still extremely dry.

I hope all of Texas will be out of the drought and I think it will be.

[cycloneye]

National Drought Summary -- May 12, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

During May 5-11, an upper-air ridge (high pressure) over the Southwest brought very warm and dry weather to most of the region during the week, while upper-air troughs (low pressure) off the Pacific Northwest Coast and over the East contributed to stormy conditions. Rainfall totals in excess of two inches were observed in a broad, sweeping arc stretching from the South Central Plains to the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, northeastward into New England. Additional rains fell over the Carolinas, parts of the Northwest, and northwestern Corn Belt. The stormy conditions brought rainfall maxima of near 12 inches to the ArkLaTex. In contrast, hot and dry weather was recorded in peninsular Florida, southern Texas, and the southwestern quadrant of the Nation.

Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas: Another week of widespread moderate to heavy rains (2-4 inches) in the southern Appalachians, most of Virginia, and the I-95 corridor from Maryland to Massachusetts prompted a 1-category improvement for most of the area. Exceptions included northern Pennsylvania and southern New York where rainfall totals were less (0.5-1 inch). The remaining D0 is further supported by 7-, 14-, and 28-day average stream flows remaining in the lower 10th percentile. For the Carolinas, D0 remained along the Eastern Seaboard due to larger, long-term deficits (90-day departures of -3 to -6 inches, 6-month departures of -4 to -8 inches, and 1-year departures exceeding -12 inches). In the southern Appalachians, 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day average stream flows ending May 11 were finally back to near normal. Lingering long-term rainfall deficits prompted the retention of D0(H) across the southern Appalachians (8-12 inch deficits for previous 12-months).

Florida: The dry season continued to be abnormally dry and hot. Little or no rainfall and temperatures 6-10 degrees F above normal for the week exacerbated the drought conditions, prompting an expansion of D3 to just north of the Space Coast. D2 was expanded to include west-central Florida as conditions deteriorated further, reflected by additional US Geological Survey (USGS) stream flow measurements dropping to the lowest 2 percentile. Precipitation totals for the southern two-thirds of Florida over the previous six months were less than 50 percent of normal. South of a West-East line from Levy to Saint-Johns counties, Keetch-Byrum Drought Index (KBDI) values were greater than 550 with maximum values over the central Everglades topping out above 750. As of May 12, 5 large incidents across Florida are being monitored by the National Interagency Fire Center while 63 new, smaller wildfires broke out over last weekend (Florida Division of Forestry).

Midwest: Another week of repetitive precipitation events alleviated the abnormal dryness in southwest Ohio. 1-2 inches of rain (0.5-1 inch gain on climatology) across southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin led to a small trimming of the southern flank of the area in Minnesota/Wisconsin. The Minnesota NASS reports adequate top soil moisture in the newly trimmed areas. Stream hydrology in those improved areas was in the historical mid-range. Soil moisture and precipitation anomalies supported keeping D1/D2 in northern Wisconsin as weekly rainfall amounts were generally under 0.5 inch.

The Plains: Recent rains (0.5-1 inch) and fair topsoil moisture supported the removal of D0 from North Dakota. In the central Plains, the southern portions of the D0 area previously in central Kansas were eliminated due to approximately 2 inches of rainfall. To the north, however, below normal precipitation (less than 0.4 inches) maintained the abnormal dryness across eastern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. This D0 area reflects 90-day deficits of 3-6 inches.

In the southern Plains, an analysis of newly available data revealed a complicated picture. In general, improvements were made to southwest Oklahoma and northern and central Texas with further deterioration over southern Texas. In southwest Oklahoma, 1-category improvement along the border with Texas was supported by recent 1-2 inch rainfall totals with soil moisture levels now at or above normal. The only Oklahoma reservoirs not in flood control operations are in southwest, but these are used for irrigation and are normally drawn down in the spring. Arbuckle Lake in Murray County (south-central Oklahoma) was setting record lows three weeks ago but now has 19% of its flood pool filled. The exception is Roger Mills County which missed out on the latest rains. Little or no rain in the Oklahoma Panhandle did not support any improvement there.

The convective nature of the recent precipitation over Texas led to a complex depiction. Newly created SPI blend products from Texas A&M supported improvement along the Red River, a thin strip through the center of the state, and the eastern periphery of the previously indicated drought areas. The 14- and 28-day stream flows indicated the unique pattern of recent wetness in isolated areas, which is reflected in the very tight gradients of drought conditions across central Texas. The holes in the drought pattern were supported by isolated heavy thunderstorms that recently hit McCulloch, Pecos, and Crockett counties.

A 1-category deterioration (now D3/D4(A)) was rendered over south Texas as most areas received little to no rainfall (less than 0.1 inch) over the past month. The lack of rainfall, combined with daily high temperatures around the century mark and average weekly temperature 8-14 degrees F above normal, served to worsen conditions.

The West: Recent storminess (0.5-2.0 inches) in Montana provided fodder for improving the drought conditions. The D0 area was removed from eastern Montana and reduced in coverage in north-central Montana. The same system also dropped 1-3 inches of precipitation over western Oregon and western Washington. Those rains alleviated much of the drought in that region. The exceptions were the Olympic Peninsula and extreme northern Cascades, where the basin average snow water content was 77 and 85 percent of normal, respectively, and water-year-to-date precipitation remained at 85 and 86 percent of normal, respectively. In central Idaho, 1-2 inches of precipitation and May 1 Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) values near zero supported the removal of D1, and additional reduction of D0 southward. In contrast, current SWSI for the Bear River and Owyhee basins of -2.4 indicated D1 conditions in southeast and southwest Idaho, respectively. With recent short-term wetness across the northern half of the West and most pasture and range lands rated in good or excellent condition according to National Agricultural Statistic Services (NASS)/USDA, the impacts were deemed to be long-term (H) only.

Farther south, no rainfall, weekly temperatures 8 to 12 degrees F above normal, and highs in the 100s further deteriorated conditions in Arizona and New Mexico. This was depicted by the expansion of D1(A) into northeast Arizona and D1(A) and D2(A) into central New Mexico. NASS/USDA pasture and range lands were rated 61, 60, and 49 percent poor or very poor in New Mexico, California and Arizona, respectively. The rest of the West remained status quo.

Hawaii and Alaska: Although Hawaii has entered their normal dry season, some areas have been much drier than normal. This was most prevalent on the leeward side of Oahu, prompting the introduction of D0 conditions.

In Alaska, recent dryness (less than 0.5 inch of rain) on top of 30- and 90-day observed precipitation deficits at Sitka (3.3/7.8 inches), Ketchikan (5.4/13.3 inches), Juneau (1.7/3.8 inches), and Yakutat (8.3/21.7 inches) drove the expansion of D0 throughout the Alaskan Panhandle.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (May 14-18), a storm system in the Midwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the eastern third of the country. Mild weather over the East will be replaced by lower temperatures late in the period. On Thursday, another storm system will approach the Pacific Northwest and produce rain and higher-elevation snows. This system will track rapidly eastward across the northern US, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Beneficial rains are expected across the drought areas of peninsular Florida, the mid-Atlantic, Wisconsin, northern and central Texas, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. Dry and warm weather will persist over California, Great Basin, and Southwest.

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast (May 19-23) calls for above-normal precipitation over the Atlantic Coastal States (including Florida), and from Colorado northeastward to the upper Midwest. Subnormal precipitation is expected across the West, and from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes region. Warmer than usual weather is forecast for the western half of the Nation, while subnormal readings are predicted for the Southeast and upper Midwest.

[jinftl]

Huge jump in D3 Extreme Drought conditions in Florida from last week....11.3% of the state last week of the state to 29.7% this week!

Update:
Florida: The dry season continued to be abnormally dry and hot. Little or no rainfall and temperatures 6-10 degrees F above normal for the week exacerbated the drought conditions, prompting an expansion of D3 to just north of the Space Coast. D2 was expanded to include west-central Florida as conditions deteriorated further, reflected by additional US Geological Survey (USGS) stream flow measurements dropping to the lowest 2 percentile. Precipitation totals for the southern two-thirds of Florida over the previous six months were less than 50 percent of normal. South of a West-East line from Levy to Saint-Johns counties, Keetch-Byrum Drought Index (KBDI) values were greater than 550 with maximum values over the central Everglades topping out above 750. As of May 12, 5 large incidents across Florida are being monitored by the National Interagency Fire Center while 63 new, smaller wildfires broke out over last weekend (Florida Division of Forestry).

[cycloneye]

Latest update of the drought in the U.S.

Florida improved bigtime this week and is almost out of any drought classification.

During May 19-25, a slow-moving, low pressure center continued to bring very heavy rains (weekly amounts up to 12 inches, and storm totals to 25 inches) that produced localized flooding, effectively putting a huge dent into the drought. By the weekend, the low finally tracked northwestward, moving into the central Gulf coast and later into the northern Delta. Even after the low moved away, scattered showers and thunderstorms continued across Florida. In the Four Corners region, unseasonably heavy rains during the pre-monsoonal dry season fell across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado. Rains started early in the period and continued in earnest, with a slow northeastward movement. Scattered showers and thunderstorms fell on the Great Plains, but drier and warmer weather prevailed across the Great Lakes region and New England. In the Far West, hot and dry weather was observed.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas: In the eastern Great Lakes region, D0(A) was expanded northward and westward to Lakes Erie and Ontario due to a lack of rainfall (nine consecutive sunny and warm days) and minimal precipitation earlier in the month. Most of western New York has recorded under an inch of rain for May, and USGS average stream flows (1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-days) are in the lower twentieth percentile. Farther east, light scattered showers (0.5 to 1 inch, locally up to 2 inches) fell on northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey, but long-term deficits (4 to 8 inches at 6 months) still remained, therefore so did D0(H). In North Carolina, little or no rain fell on the northeast portion of the state, maintaining D0(H). In contrast, 2 to 3 inches of rain fell on the southern Appalachians (from northeastern Georgia to northwestern North Carolina) providing additional relief from abnormal dryness in that region. Some D0(H) remained due to below normal lake levels in northeast Georgia and the western Carolinas.

Florida: A rare, slow-moving May storm dumped widespread copious amounts of rainfall, especially on northeastern sections, dramatically easing the drought across the state. Most of Florida received heavy rains (more than 4 inches) with locally up to 2 feet (25.49 inches at Ormond Beach, 23.75 inches at the Flagler County State Fairgrounds, and more than 21 inches at Daytona Beach) and a prolonged period of strong onshore winds. Prior to this storm, south Florida had experienced one of its driest dry seasons (November 1-April 30) on record. The South Florida Water Management District reported the driest 6-month period since records began in 1932. West-central Florida was also gripped in drought and had enacted some of the tightest water restrictions in recent memory. The fire danger, which had been extremely high across central and southern Florida (KBDI 600-750, corresponding to extreme dryness) has greatly diminished (most locations now less than 100). Soils are completely saturated across northern and central Florida, and the widespread rainfall has sufficiently moistened soils and greened up vegetation (courtesy of Florida State climatologist David Zierden). Average stream flows, at record low levels two weeks ago, have undergone a major reversal with many now at record high levels. As of May 26, Lake Okeechobee was at 10.87 feet, up from 10.55 feet eight days ago, and still rising as swollen rivers over the Kissimmee River basin drain southward into it. As a result, widespread 1 to 2 category improvement was made throughout Florida. Exceptions included lingering D1(H) northwest of Lake Okeechobee where rainfall was at a minimum (2 to 3 inches) compared to surrounding areas, and extreme southern Florida where southern Miami-Dade County wells were still in the lowest tenth percentile and had yet to show significant recovery. After the data cutoff period, however, some wells had begun to quickly rebound.

Upper Midwest: Dry and warm weather prevailed across southern and central Minnesota, and temperatures averaged 3-6 degrees F above normal as highs reached into the upper 90’s. Evaporative rates were also quite high as St. Paul Campus Observatory in Ramsey County recorded its third highest single day pan evaporation (0.63 inches on May 20) since records began in 1972. Accordingly, the dryness (D0 to D2) was expanded westward into south-central Minnesota, with D2 covering Anoka, Ramsey, Dakota and Washington Counties. There is a benchmark lake (White Bear) in Washington County that is within 11 inches of its all-time record low from the drought of 1988. According to NASS/USDA, Minnesota top-soil moisture was 38 percent short or very short, good for farmers to make significant progress on corn and soybean plantings, but eventually becoming detrimental as the crops emerge and grow. In contrast, light to moderate (0.5 to 1.5 inches) rains fell further west and south, keeping abnormal dryness at bay in northern Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, and eastern South Dakota. In northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, little or no precipitation fell again, slightly increasing D1-D2 across the region. In addition to USGS stream flows in the lower twenty-fifth percentile, a May 23 article in the Milwaukee Sentinel Journal stated that some lake levels in northern Wisconsin have fallen by as much as 8 feet from their highs, while others dropped to their lowest point in 70 years.

The Plains: In the north-central Great Plains, scattered showers and thunderstorms dropped 1 to 3 inches of rain on parts of southern and central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, effectively removing the abnormal dryness in east-central and northeastern Nebraska. This also prevented further northward and eastward expansion of D0 into eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. In contrast, drier conditions (rain totals 0.1 to 0.4 inches) allowed for an increase in D0 into extreme eastern Nebraska and south-central South Dakota (Lyman and Jones counties). No impacts were designated in this region as rapid progress of crop plantings occurred, but rainfall will be needed soon for emergence and crop establishment before topsoil moisture becomes critically deficient.

Farther south, continued hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms occurred across the southern Plains, with the heaviest rainfall amounts (1.5 to 3.5 inches) falling on parts of north-central, south-central, and extreme southern and southwestern Texas, and in southern Oklahoma. Accordingly, 1- to 2-category improvements (via Texas A&M SPI blend synthesis) were made in southwestern Texas (Reeves, Loving, Jeff Davis, Ward, and Winker counties) and around the El Paso area; in central Texas, a 1-category improvement to D1 was made in Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Coke, and Runnells counties; and in extreme southern Texas, an upgrade from D3 to D2 was made in Zapata, Starr, and Hidalgo counties.

In northern Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, however, less than 0.5 inches fell, and combined with above-normal temperatures, conditions deteriorated. In the southern Texas Panhandle, degradation to D1 occurred in Hockley, Lubbock, Crosby, Lynn, and Garza counties, while D1 was added to Oklahoma’s Texas County where another dry week occurred on top of a very dry season (less than 20 percent of normal past 30 days, and 60 percent of normal the last 90 days). A slight expansion of D0 was also made across the Oklahoma Panhandle which has missed the heavy rains experienced by the rest of the State.

The West: Low-level moisture and a slow-moving cold front brought unseasonably heavy, widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the Four Corner States throughout the week, well before the typical onset of the Southwest monsoon (“non-monsoonal rains”). Weekly amounts generally ranged from 0.5 to 2 inches, with 2-4 inches reported in central Arizona, southeast Utah, western and central Colorado, and a few locations in southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. As a result, widespread 1- to occasionally 2-category improvements were made, especially where only short-term drought was previously indicated. This included removing D1(A) in northeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, and splitting the D2(A) in southeast New Mexico in half where 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell. In southwest New Mexico, a 2-category improvement was made as recent rains eliminated short-term deficits and instead created surpluses out to 90-days. In northern Arizona, May 22 rains at Holbrook totaled 3.50 inches breaking Holbrook’s previous wettest day (2.87 inches) on July 8, 1914. At Page, 1.84 inches of rain was the third highest daily total in the last half-century. What made these amounts unusual is that May is normally in the middle of Arizona’s dry season. Normal ANNUAL rainfall is 6.74 inches at Page and 9.20 inches at Holbrook. Additionally, improvements were made in Utah and Colorado, with only D0(H) remaining in southeast Colorado where D1 had been previously. In contrast, drier weather in northeastern New Mexico (0.1 to 0.4 inches) expanded the D1(A) there. Although the Far West was generally dry and unseasonably warm this week, no degradation was made as the long, normally dry summer season was underway, with plenty of time for additional deterioration.

Alaska and Hawaii: In Alaska, although stream flow levels are at near-record high levels due to rapid snowmelt and ice jams, precipitation has been lacking since April 1. During the past 60 days, precipitation deficits of 8 to 14 inches have accumulated along the southern Alaska coast from Cordova to Yakutat, and D1 was introduced.

In Hawaii, another week with little or no rain on both the windward and leeward sides of the Islands promoted all former non-dry areas (leeward sides of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island) to D0.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (May 28 – June 1) heavy rain (1 to 2 inches) is expected for southern Texas and most of Florida, with moderate rains predicted in the southern and central Rockies. Light to moderate rains may fall across the Upper Midwest drought areas, with more significant rains (1-3 inches) forecast in the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast. Unseasonably heavy rains (up to 0.5 inches) are anticipated in the D2 area of northeast California and northwest Nevada. Elsewhere, little or no rain is expected in the remainder of the West and northern and central Plains. Well above normal temperatures are predicted for the Northwest, with cooler than normal conditions across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region, and New England.

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast (June 2-6) indicates warmer than normal conditions in the Four Corner states, southern Plains, Washington state, and Alaska. Subnormal temperatures are predicted for the eastern third of the Nation. Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest and Southeast, with drier than normal weather expected in the Southwest, southern Plains, and eastern half of Alaska.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[cycloneye]

Latest update of drought conditions across the U.S. mainland and territories.

National Drought Summary -- June 2, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas: D0 was expanded to include all of northern New Jersey and into extreme southeastern New York. D0 was eliminated from western New York and all of western Pennsylvania this week. The region has recorded several rain events over the last few weeks that have been enough to remove the abnormally dry (D0) conditions from the region. There is still a pocket of dryness in the Buffalo, New York, area that will need to be watched if the recent rains do not persist. In the Carolinas, the D0 in eastern North Carolina was expanded to the west as hydrological impacts are still persisting even with the recent rains. Along the North and South Carolina border, the D0 was reduced and split from a separate pocket of D0 in extreme northeast Georgia.

Florida: The wet season continued to arrive in full force over much of Florida. All drought was eliminated outside of a small pocket of D0/D1 along the southwest coast that the recent rains have missed. Several records were broken for May precipitation across southern Florida, including some that had stood for more than 75 years. For the month of May, Daytona Beach recorded 22.33 inches (685 percent of normal), Sanford 17.00 inches, Ponce Inlet 17.74 inches, and Kissimmee 17.09 inches, compared to just 3.92 inches in Naples and 3.87 inches in Key West.

Upper Midwest: For the most part, the drought regions of Minnesota and Wisconsin were missed by any significant rains this week. The southern edge of the drought in Wisconsin did record up to 3 inches of rain, which led to improvements to the D0/D1 regions along the southern edge of the drought. D1 and D2 were expanded around the Twin Cities, while D0 was expanded in southwest Minnesota.

The Plains: May was dry over much of the Plains region. Locally heavy rains did take place at the end of the Drought Monitor period over southwest Nebraska, southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Many locations are 5 to 6 inches below normal for the calendar year and only cool temperatures have kept crop stress to a minimum at this point. Most locations started this agricultural season with a full soil moisture profile, but topsoils are being depleted rapidly and some areas are already seeing stress on emerging crops and smaller heads filling in on the wheat crop. D0 was expanded into most of eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and South Dakota. An area of D0 was also extended south out of South Dakota and into western Nebraska. At the end of the current Drought Monitor period, slow-moving showers were pushing through many of the newly added D0 areas in South Dakota. These rains may improve conditions enough to eliminate portions of the D0 in the next week. D0 was also added into extreme northwest North Dakota this week. As temperatures continue to warm and water demand increases, this area is ripe for moderate drought in the near future.

D0 was also expanded this week in Oklahoma as the northern portions of the state have not received normal precipitation during the peak precipitation period for them. In Texas, improvements were made in the central portion of the state, expanding the drought-free region and overall showing a categorical improvement to the region. In south Texas, a categorical improvement was made along the D2/D3 regions, while D3/D4 were improved along Matagorda Bay in response to the recent rains. Improvements were also made in north-central Texas, where D0/D1/D2 regions were shifted to the west. In west Texas, D1 and D2 were improved in response to good rains over the last few weeks. D3 and D4 were expanded near Austin because after some improvements in this region, the area is showing deterioration again.

The West: D0 was improved slightly in north-central Arizona in response to recent rains in the region. D0 was added to several locations in Montana in response to abnormally dry conditions for the current agricultural season. A reassessment of conditions in California going into the dry season led to the expansion of D2 down along the southern coast of the state. In Oregon, D2 was expanded into the southern portion of the state as several indicators were showing this region to be worse than was currently being depicted.

Alaska and Hawaii: No changes in either state this week. Conditions in Hawaii continue to deteriorate and expansion of drought severity may be needed in the near term.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (June 4-8) temperatures are expected to be below normal over most of the United States. High temperatures will be 12 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit below normal over the northern Plains and up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in the Southwest. Temperatures in Texas are expected to range 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. A widespread and active precipitation pattern is forecasted over much of the United States with maxima precipitation amounts showing up over the Mid-Atlantic, Florida and the Midwest. Precipitation looks promising over northern California and Oregon and into Idaho as well. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast (June 9-13) shows temperatures continuing to be below normal over the northern half of the United States, with the coolest temperatures expected over the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and New England. Above-normal temperatures are expected over the Gulf Coast and into Texas. The coolest areas are also expected to be the wettest, with a good chance for above-normal precipitation from New England and the Mid-Atlantic, through the Midwest and Great Plains and into the Rocky Mountains. The best chances for drier-than-normal conditions are over south Texas and Alaska during this time frame.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Florida is almost out of any drought advisories.

[cycloneye]

The Florida Penninsula is almost out of the drought zone,only a tiny area in the SW continues with a drought warning.

[Shoshana]

Seems to be getting worse again here in Central Texas

[somethingfunny]

Here's a new auto-refresher map of the world outside of Texas and Florida:

[cycloneye]

Latest Update of Drought in U.S.

Parts of Texas is the area of the most critical drought conditions.

National Drought Summary -- June 23, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Beneficial precipitation fell this week again in a swath from northeastern California and southern Oregon all the way to the mid-Atlantic and up into New England. Precipitation also fell throughout the southeastern Plains, and parts of the south. Little precipitation fell along the Gulf of Mexico, in southern Texas, or in the Southwest.

The East: Moderate to much above normal precipitation (2 inches or more) fell in the Northeast with the highest totals falling in southeastern New York and southeastern Maine (4 plus inches). Western Pennsylvania, extreme western New York, and Massachusetts received above normal precipitation, easing the abnormal dryness (D0) in these areas.

Rain fell last week throughout much of the mid-Atlantic and down from northern Mississippi and Alabama to North Carolina. The area of abnormal dryness in North Carolina largely missed the beneficial precipitation and remains unchanged in this week’s depiction. Above normal precipitation across northern New Jersey, northeast Pennsylvania, and southern New York eliminated the abnormal dryness (D0) there.

The Great Lakes Region: Most of the drought-affected areas of the region missed the beneficial precipitation that again fell just to their south and east. Continued long-term deficits resulted in largely unchanged drought classifications in this region.

The Midwest and Plains: This week’s precipitation was highly variable through the Plains. Every state in the region saw areas of above normal precipitation. Additionally, parts of the Dakotas through Minnesota saw areas of much below normal precipitation. Abnormal dryness eased slightly in western North Dakota and parts of Nebraska. Moderate drought (D1) conditions were introduced into south central Nebraska. Western Texas received much needed precipitation this week, resulting in improvement in moderate and severe drought categories and abnormal dryness along the New Mexico border. Extreme drought (D3) was also removed, due to lessening of impacts, from the Haskell county area. Southern and eastern Texas missed much of this rain. Moderate drought (D1) was extended over the Houston area as a result. Much of Oklahoma, with the exception of the panhandle, missed this precipitation as well. In Oklahoma, moderate drought (D1) expanded slightly in the central part of the state. Locally heavy precipitation fell in northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and into central Missouri with totals exceeding four inches for the week in select locations.

The West: Above normal precipitation once again fell from northern California and Oregon, across northern Nevada and southern Idaho, and into Colorado and Wyoming. A second swath of above normal precipitation fell from western New Mexico up into southern Colorado. This beneficial precipitation eased severe (D2) and moderate drought (D1) as well as abnormal dryness (D0) in northern Nevada and southern Oregon and through central Nevada. Moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) expanded slightly in northern Montana, which largely missed the precipitation this week.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Drought conditions remained mostly unchanged across the Hawaiian Islands, in Alaska, and in Puerto Rico. In Hawaii, drought intensified in Kauai. Precipitation was near to above normal for much of Alaska, with the exception of around Anchorage. Precipitation again fell in Puerto Rico this week, particularly along the northwestern coast.

Looking Ahead: Above normal precipitation is expected from the northern Midwest, through the northern Great Lakes, and throughout the mid-Atlantic and New England June 25 – 29, 2009. Additional precipitation is expected in the West, stretching from Idaho down into Arizona. Summer thunderstorm activity is expected in Florida. In intense drought areas, such as Texas, little relief is expected. Temperatures are expected to be above normal extending from the Southeast to the mid-Atlantic and westward to the Plains. The west coast is largely expected to see below normal temperatures during this period.

For the ensuing 5 days (June 30 – July 4, 2009), the odds favor cooler-than-normal conditions in the Northwest and the Northeast. The interior of the country, from the Rocky Mountains to the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, is expected to see above normal temperatures. Precipitation is expected to be above normal in the Southeast, in northern New England, and in select locations in the Southwest and the upper Plains. Below normal precipitation is expected from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes and along the West Coast. Odds favor dry and warm conditions throughout most of Alaska.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html



http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TX,S

[cycloneye]

Weekly Drought Monitor Update

National Drought Summary -- June 30, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The last half of June was dominated by hot and dry weather from western Oklahoma and the central tier of Texas eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and occasionally through Georgia and the Carolinas, causing drought to worsen where it already existed, and raising concerns about developing dryness in other parts of the region. Above-normal temperatures also dominated the dry areas near the Great Lakes, where precipitation was not as markedly low, though deterioration was observed in more areas than was improvement. In contrast, widespread moderate rains last week made the southeastern Rockies and southern High Plains the one part of the country where dryness improved on a fairly large scale. Finally, seasonably dry weather kept significant areas of dryness and drought intact across the West.

The East: Moderate rain eliminated abnormally dry conditions across Ohio. However, farther south, rainfall has slackened since the start of June across eastern North Carolina and adjacent areas, and after mid-month, substantially drier than normal weather has dominated most locations from Georgia and central Tennessee westward through the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall amounts at least 1.5 inches below normal for the two weeks ending June 30, 2009 were common across this region, and temperatures averaging a few degrees above normal during the same period allowed concerns about developing dryness to increase quickly. At this time, broadscale drought expansion seems premature, but abnormally dry conditions were introduced in areas where temperature and precipitation were both well removed from normal for June as a whole, or where long-term precipitation totals remained below normal because of prior drought conditions. Specifically, eastern North Carolina and nearby adjacent areas, and a few small areas in southwestern, east-central, and north-central Alabama and neighboring sections of south-central Tennessee and west-central Georgia.

Florida: Continued widespread heavy rains finally eliminated a small area of abnormal dryness in southwestern parts of the state, which was the last vestige of severely dry conditions that dominated the state earlier in the year.

Upper Midwest: Generally warmer and drier than normal conditions led to some D0 to D2 expansion, primarily northward (in northwestern Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota) and eastward (through much of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and adjacent northeastern Wisconsin). In addition, a new area of moderate drought was assessed in part of interior west-central Minnesota where April – June precipitation was at least 5 inches below normal. On the other hand, some areas of improvement were also identified, specifically along the northwestern fringe of the region where moderate precipitation was enough to end abnormal dryness, and in part of west-central Wisconsin and adjacent Minnesota where conditions improved to D1 following moderate rains last week.

The Plains: The part of the country where two weeks of hot and dry weather would be least welcome was the one where such conditions were most persistent; specifically, the southern Great Plains, part of which is experiencing the worst drought currently affecting the country (D4, or exceptional drought, which has been entrenched across parts of central and southern Texas for many weeks). Last week, measurable rain fell on only a few peripheral parts of the large drought area encompassing much of the southern half of the state, thus drought conditions in this region almost universally deteriorated. By the time June ended, San Antonio, TX had officially endured its driest 22-month period since records began back in 1885 (23.90 inches, breaking the old record of 26.33 inches from December 1908 through September 1910). The additional fact that June 2009 was one of the five warmest Junes ever experienced there only increased drought stress. Farther east, record low combined May-June rainfall was reported at both Houston, TX and Galveston, TX, with measurements dating back 118 years in both cities. College Station, TX reported its second-driest May-June period on record, and received no measurable rain during June.

Farther north and east, most locations were also warmer and drier than normal last week, but rainfall was not so absolutely absent as it was across the southern half of Texas, and in fact rainfall was sufficiently heavy and widespread to ease dryness in some areas. Most notably, many locations from interior north-central Texas westward through the southern High Plains and southeastern Rockies received at least an inch of rain for the week, with up to 3 inches dousing some areas that have been in drought. As a result, moderate to severe drought coverage declined across both interior north-central Texas and eastern New Mexico, and abnormal dryness was removed from part of west-central Texas. Meanwhile, abnormal dryness and moderate drought both expanded in Oklahoma, far eastern Texas, much of Louisiana, and the southern half of Mississippi. Scattered light rainfall was observed in most of these regions, although as a second consecutive hot week concluded, even scattered moderate to heavy thunderstorms, accompanied by 1 to locally 5 inches of rain, were not enough to prevent some expansion of moderate drought from southeastern Louisiana northward and westward into adjacent Mississippi and southwestern Louisiana.

Finally, scattered D0 areas were again identified from the Dakotas southward through Kansas, though D0 conditions noted last week in northeastern Nebraska and parts of southern and eastern South Dakota were eliminated. The small area of moderate drought in southern Nebraska last week expanded eastward and southward into Kansas this week following only a few tenths of an inch of precipitation this past week.

The West: Substantial changes, generally for the worse, were introduced across Montana this week. Abnormally dry conditions now cover much of the state, the moderate to severe drought in northwestern sections expanded slightly this week, and most notably, a re-assessment of impacts and precipitation observations for the past 3 to 6 months (near or slightly more than half of normal) led to the introduction of moderate to severe drought in parts of northeastern Montana as well. Note that while this represents a decline of 2 drought classifications from last week in most of this region, this is not meant to imply that conditions got that much worse last week. Only that a thorough re-analysis of the region led to its current, more serious drought assessment.

Elsewhere, moderate rains eroded the extent of abnormal dryness and moderate drought in different parts of southeastern Arizona while seasonably dry weather in other parts of the West left D0 to D2 conditions unchanged.

Alaska and Hawaii: Significantly below-normal precipitation on 1- to 3-month time scales is now reported by most locations throughout the southern tier of Alaska from the Panhandle westward through eastern portions of the Aleutians, with the largest deficits (several inches below and less than half of normal for the last 3 months) noted from the southeastern mainland through the west-central islands of the Panhandle. As a result, D0 was expanded to cover most of Alaska’s southern tier, and D1 was extended southeastward into the west-central Panhandle.

In Hawaii, scattered light to moderate rainfall was not enough to change conditions from those assessed last week.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (July 1 – 5, 2009, few of the areas now experiencing abnormal dryness or drought are expected to receive heavy rain, but there are a few small exceptions, specifically eastern North Carolina (0.5 to 1.5 inches in most areas), the northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent New Mexico and Colorado (1 to locally 3 inches), and areas near the southern reaches of the Arizona / New Mexico border, fueled by monsoon-related showers (0.5 to 1.5 inches). Those areas now experiencing severe to exceptional drought are forecast to receive a few tenths of an inch of precipitation at best.

For the next 5 days (July 6 – 10, 2009), the odds favor above-normal rainfall for current areas of dryness and drought in southwestern Alaska, the Rockies and High Plains, the central and northern Great Plains, and Minnesota. In contrast, the odds favor drier than normal weather for California and western Oregon, the central Great Lakes region, the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Southeast, much of Oklahoma, and unfortunately for the southeastern two-thirds of Texas, including the state’s broad, parched area of severe to exceptional drought.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[vbhoutex]

Texas is looking worse and worse, even with some of the rains we have had. Our County(Harris) is part moderate and part severe drought with extreme drought moving in from the SW at what appears to be a good clip. It is now worse over the shole CWA than it was before our late April flood. We really need some area-wide soaking rains bad or at least some daily showers.

[cycloneye]

The drought in Texas is turning very bad as the weeks go by.



http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TX,S

[Shoshana]

Here in Central Texas, we've been in Exceptional Drought for a long time now - since before Ike last year, maybe before Dolly - Can't remember.

[southerngale]

So sorry to hear that Shoshana. Hopefully, that will change soon. My area just went from abnormally dry to moderate, the first time I've seen that in a few years. I went from excessive rain (for the most part, with short, drier periods) to drought. The last drought (spring of '06, I think) was followed by rain, rain, and more rain. Too much rain, actually. Several periodic flood events and a yard that just seemed to stay soggy the majority of the time. That wasn't fun either, but right now, it sounds pretty good.

I hope we all get the rain we need, soon!

[vbhoutex]

Here in Harris county we now have the extreme drought already to both my kids homes and almost to ours. But, at my house it is hard to tell because we have had 3 storms in 2 weeks that have been localized right in our area. We had rain last night and neither of the kids got it. Overall though unfortunately that drought monitor is right on for most of Texas and this state needs a serious break and soon. Unfortunately, nothing is showing in the short term to approach a break of any magnitude unless the ULL expected to come out over the GOM next week and migrate S and W tracks further North.Maybe all us Texans should head for Cancun and try and blow it North.

[southerngale]

Here in Harris county we now have the extreme drought already to both my kids homes and almost to ours. But, at my house it is hard to tell because we have had 3 storms in 2 weeks that have been localized right in our area. We had rain last night and neither of the kids got it. Overall though unfortunately that drought monitor is right on for most of Texas and this state needs a serious break and soon. Unfortunately, nothing is showing in the short term to approach a break of any magnitude unless the ULL expected to come out over the GOM next week and migrate S and W tracks further North.Maybe all us Texans should head for Cancun and try and blow it North.

That's how it was for me a few months ago. SE TX was shown as abnormally dry, but we had mushy grounds and standing water everywhere. Scattered to isolated showers kept getting my house and nearby, but much of the area was missing out. Kinda the opposite of what's been happening lately... I've been getting missed while everyone else seems to get rain. I finally got some last night, though. Like most others, I still need more.

[Shoshana]

Thursday again and the drought in Texas is getting worse...