Tell me what you think of my Weather Experiment Numbers.
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2003 3:42 pm
This is an Experimental Project for these areas only. This is for today, August 15th 2003. The
descriptions show the percent of severe potential. 100% being the most it can get, 0% being the least.
at the bottom of each column, it shows a line of numbers with percents. some have a plus sign , and
some have a negative sign. the plus signs show that that severe ingredient MUST BE THERE. at the end
I add up every positive percent, and come up with a percentage. i think take that percentage and
divide it by the most possible percentage of all 6 positve ingredients. I then get the number of
possible severe weather for the day for that area.
========================================================================================================
Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border. 5pm August 15th, 2003
The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES
The temperature will be 72 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be fairly unstable. 40% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 30 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
OUTLOOK for Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border storms today.
THE POSITIVES MEAN THAT FACTOR MUST BE THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEGATIVE, NOT NEED BUT HELPS
60% YES+
40% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
300% all added up. 50% Severe Potential
Could see much of the same thing as yesterday afternoon, but not as bad.
Severe Weather is in slight risk possible.
========================================================================================================
TUCSON AREA SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES
The temperature will be 82 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be very unstable. 60% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 33 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
OUTLOOK for Tucson Area storms today.
50% YES+
60% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
310% all added up. 52% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
PHOENIX AREA STORM POTENTIAL
The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES
The temperature will be 87 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be very unstable. 60% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 34 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
OUTLOOK for Phoenix Area storms today.
75% YES+
60% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
335% all added up. 56% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
Coachella Valley, Southern California.
The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES
The temperature will be 101 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be incredibly unstable. 100% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 38 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 30 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
COACHELLA VALLEY STORM POTENTiAL
75% YES+
100% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
375% all added up. and 62% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
So out of these areas, the Coachella Valley storms will most likely be the most severe with 62%
potential that the storms will become Severe.
Kevin Martin
descriptions show the percent of severe potential. 100% being the most it can get, 0% being the least.
at the bottom of each column, it shows a line of numbers with percents. some have a plus sign , and
some have a negative sign. the plus signs show that that severe ingredient MUST BE THERE. at the end
I add up every positive percent, and come up with a percentage. i think take that percentage and
divide it by the most possible percentage of all 6 positve ingredients. I then get the number of
possible severe weather for the day for that area.
========================================================================================================
Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border. 5pm August 15th, 2003
The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES
The temperature will be 72 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be fairly unstable. 40% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 30 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
OUTLOOK for Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border storms today.
THE POSITIVES MEAN THAT FACTOR MUST BE THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEGATIVE, NOT NEED BUT HELPS
60% YES+
40% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
300% all added up. 50% Severe Potential
Could see much of the same thing as yesterday afternoon, but not as bad.
Severe Weather is in slight risk possible.
========================================================================================================
TUCSON AREA SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES
The temperature will be 82 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be very unstable. 60% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 33 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
OUTLOOK for Tucson Area storms today.
50% YES+
60% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
310% all added up. 52% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
PHOENIX AREA STORM POTENTIAL
The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES
The temperature will be 87 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be very unstable. 60% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 34 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 60 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
OUTLOOK for Phoenix Area storms today.
75% YES+
60% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
335% all added up. 56% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
Coachella Valley, Southern California.
The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES
The temperature will be 101 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be incredibly unstable. 100% YES
With the 850MB winds being at 38 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES
Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES
Jet stream Winds at 30 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES
500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES
COACHELLA VALLEY STORM POTENTiAL
75% YES+
100% YES+
60% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
375% all added up. and 62% Severe Potential
========================================================================================================
So out of these areas, the Coachella Valley storms will most likely be the most severe with 62%
potential that the storms will become Severe.
Kevin Martin