Tornado Watch Mid MS & Ohio Valley April 5
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2009 8:30 am
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2009
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST US...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN INTENSE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE LATTER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND HELP TO FOCUS TWO
AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...THE MID MS AND LOWER
OH VALLEYS...AND THE GULF COAST STATES.
...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHEAST TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BEEN STEADILY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MEM AREA. RATHER STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN IL/IND
SOUTHWARD...HELPING TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE
TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM STL-MEM. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION OF FRONT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND MAGNITUDE OF
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF DEWPOINTS RISE FASTER/HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THE TORNADO RISK WOULD ALSO INCREASE.
STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING.
...AL/GA/FL/SC...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER CENTRAL AL. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
CONSISTENTLY HANDLED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL GA TODAY.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REINFORCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THIS
REGION WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE VALUES THAN FARTHER NORTH...AND
SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF MODERATE CAPE /1500-2000 J/KG/. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS WELL...BUT LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. AFTER DARK...LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY RE-INVIGORATE THE
TORNADO RISK OVER PARTS OF GA/FL/SOUTHERN SC...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/05/2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2009
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST US...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS AN INTENSE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE LATTER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND HELP TO FOCUS TWO
AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...THE MID MS AND LOWER
OH VALLEYS...AND THE GULF COAST STATES.
...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHEAST TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BEEN STEADILY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MEM AREA. RATHER STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN IL/IND
SOUTHWARD...HELPING TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE
TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM STL-MEM. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION OF FRONT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND MAGNITUDE OF
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF DEWPOINTS RISE FASTER/HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THE TORNADO RISK WOULD ALSO INCREASE.
STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING.
...AL/GA/FL/SC...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER CENTRAL AL. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
CONSISTENTLY HANDLED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL GA TODAY.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REINFORCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THIS
REGION WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE VALUES THAN FARTHER NORTH...AND
SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF MODERATE CAPE /1500-2000 J/KG/. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS WELL...BUT LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. AFTER DARK...LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY RE-INVIGORATE THE
TORNADO RISK OVER PARTS OF GA/FL/SOUTHERN SC...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/05/2009
