Bring it on! The graphic in the report shows that in patterns such as the one they are forecasting...la nina transitioning to neutral/weak el nino by fall that rainy seasons tend to be wetter than normal south of Lake O...areas to the north are below normal...so this may not be a state-wide phenomenon. Also, not sure what type of weather pattern that has a strong enso connection would favor rainfall above normal across the entire southern peninsula (not heavier on east coast, for example, as a persistent trough would suggest...pushing convection east into metro areas) but then favor normal to then below normal rainfall as you move into central florida.
I wonder how much of the above normal rainfall is the product of tropical systems in those years....the graphic has the look of a troipical system planting a bullseye of rain across south florida and the bahamas and offshore the east coast of florida (above normal rain in blue and purple).
Only time will tell....one thing we can start to say with some confidence based on current forecasts and models, that if May 21 is the average date of the start of the rainy season, this season will not be starting earlier than normal.
Some execerpts from forecast:
• The wetter than normal rainy season forecast is based primarily, but not exclusively, on correlations between global weather patterns, particularly ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and their effect on South Florida weather.
• Computer model forecasts suggest that Pacific sea surface temperatures will continue to rise, perhaps to weak El Niño levels by late summer or fall.
• Other factors come into play in determining how much rain will fall over the course of the rainy season, such as effects from any tropical storms or hurricanes, as well as any large but disorganized tropical disturbances which may affect our region. In the absence of any of these systems, summer rainfall patterns can vary widely over South Florida, with some areas seeing significantly more or less rainfall than nearby locations.
• Drought conditions will be slow to improve until the normal summer rainfall patterns become well established. This also means that the extremely high fire danger levels being observed over South Florida will not significantly improve until sometime in June at the earliest.
