The eternal drought: south FL will never win
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 1:05 pm
Several inches of beneficial precipitation have occurred across southern/central Florida, including the Orlando region and Kissimmee River watershed, during the past five days. Broad swaths of Lake Okeechobee's source of water in central Florida were impacted. Infiltration and overland flow from this region provides a source of water for the lake, so prolonged periods of rainfall are beneficial for areas farther south. Historically, similar periods of moderate rainfall (that affected the same areas) culminated in significant water level rises on Lake Okeechobee. I can recall several events during the 1990s and pre-2006 years. Additionally, the lake featured sustained periods of average or above average water levels, although there were numerous intervals of natural drought cycles such as the 2001 drought. However, we have not observed these sustained periods of average/above average water levels in recent years. From 2006 to the present, I can't recall any prolonged periods of average/above average lake levels. In fact, I believe that we have not observed a single period of sustained above average water levels during this period. The lake level only briefly rose to an average state after the passage of Tropical Storm Fay, but it quickly reverted to sub-average levels.
Let's examine the recent rainfall event. Note the significant decline in the KBDI (drought index) values across the Orlando area and Kissimmee watershed:
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090519.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090520.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090521.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090522.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090523.html
What is the trend of Lake Okeechobee's water level?
http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt
May 18: 10.55 ft (nearly 3 feet below average)
May 19: 10.60
May 20: 10.66 (about 2.6 feet below average)
May 21: 10.77
May 22: 10.75
The lake level only featured relatively modest gains for a brief period, and it actually dropped yesterday. It dropped, despite the recent rains. Unlike previous decades/years, these trends have been the norm from 2006 to the present. Similar rainfall events produced greater lake level rises in the 1990s and early 2000s. The lake eventually rebounded. Recently, sustained average/above average lake levels have been scarce, and periods of copious, widespread precipitation have not resulted in substantial lake level rises. It is remarkable that we are approaching the severe deficits of 2007 and 2008. Actual drought conditions have vanished across the peninsula, but Lake Okeechobee is lower than the preceding month. All of these trends are disconcerting, since we have essentially retained the Lake Okeechobee deficit for at least three consecutive years. I think it highlights the effects of greater water releases during discharge periods. The larger discharges have been partially influenced by the declining state of the Herbert Hoover Dike. Discharges are likely releasing more water than previous years. If these effects of human influence are not addressed, we will likely remain in a prolonged Lake Okeechobee drought. It's producing significant negative effects on south Florida's wells and the Biscayne Aquifer. Additionally, the Herbert Hoover Dike must be amended.
Human intervention harbors a stranglehold on Lake Okeechobee's water table.
Let's examine the recent rainfall event. Note the significant decline in the KBDI (drought index) values across the Orlando area and Kissimmee watershed:
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090519.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090520.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090521.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090522.html
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/archive/kbdi-report-20090523.html
What is the trend of Lake Okeechobee's water level?
http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt
May 18: 10.55 ft (nearly 3 feet below average)
May 19: 10.60
May 20: 10.66 (about 2.6 feet below average)
May 21: 10.77
May 22: 10.75
The lake level only featured relatively modest gains for a brief period, and it actually dropped yesterday. It dropped, despite the recent rains. Unlike previous decades/years, these trends have been the norm from 2006 to the present. Similar rainfall events produced greater lake level rises in the 1990s and early 2000s. The lake eventually rebounded. Recently, sustained average/above average lake levels have been scarce, and periods of copious, widespread precipitation have not resulted in substantial lake level rises. It is remarkable that we are approaching the severe deficits of 2007 and 2008. Actual drought conditions have vanished across the peninsula, but Lake Okeechobee is lower than the preceding month. All of these trends are disconcerting, since we have essentially retained the Lake Okeechobee deficit for at least three consecutive years. I think it highlights the effects of greater water releases during discharge periods. The larger discharges have been partially influenced by the declining state of the Herbert Hoover Dike. Discharges are likely releasing more water than previous years. If these effects of human influence are not addressed, we will likely remain in a prolonged Lake Okeechobee drought. It's producing significant negative effects on south Florida's wells and the Biscayne Aquifer. Additionally, the Herbert Hoover Dike must be amended.
Human intervention harbors a stranglehold on Lake Okeechobee's water table.