STORM2K

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE THREAT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
FROM THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE CLOSE TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY FROM THE
DFW METRO AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...
A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL SEND A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE COLD AIR THAT ARRIVES IN NORTH TEXAS AND THAT REPRESENTS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS DO AGREE THAT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENT AND THIS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS AIRMASS TO CONTINUE SOUTH...PRIMARILY DUE TO ITS
HIGHER DENSITY. THE NAM HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS IDEA AND IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...AND HAS FROPA OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NAM IS USUALLY THE BEST MODEL TO FOLLOW IN THIS SITUATION...BUT
ONLY GOES OUT 84 HRS. THE OTHER MODELS HOLD THE FRONT UP AND ONLY
GRADUALLY PUSH SOME MODIFIED COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
GFS/MEX NUMBERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WE WILL SEE IF THE NEXT
FEW RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLDER TEMPS BEFORE
BITING OFF ON THIS IDEA COMPLETELY. IN EITHER CASE WE ARE LOOKING AT
TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

HEAVY RAIN EVENT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. STORM TOTAL QPF/S ARE DOWN FROM YESTERDAY/S RUNS...WITH
A 2.5 INCH MAXIMUM VICE 4 INCHES BEFORE...BUT PWAT/S ARE STILL
FORECAST TO EXCEED 2 INCHES...COPIOUS MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
WORK WITH. IN MY MEMORY...I HAVE NOT SEEN PWAT/S THIS
HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN FALL...WITHOUT SEEING THE OCCURRENCE OF
FLASH FLOODING. FEEL THAT THIS IS AN EVENT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

ntxweatherwatcher wrote:I am tired of he rain, but I am looking forward to the cooler temps!

Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC121-221-251-425-439-220515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0097.091022T0212Z-091022T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
912 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SOUTHEASTERN HOOD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEASTERN SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
JUSTIN TO 16 MILES WEST OF GODLEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. RADAR
INDICATES THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ALONG A BAND
FROM WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY...THROUGH CENTRAL TARRANT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO DENTON COUNTY. ROADS HAD TO BE CLOSED AND
DRIVERS NEEDED TO BE RESCUED WITH THE PREVIOUS BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN.
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1215 AM CDT. IN
ADDITION...WATER WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AS MANY DITCHES AND CREEKS
ARE ALREADY FULL FROM THE EARLIER RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER
TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TAKE A DIFFERENT
ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.