STORM2K

Yikes!

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
849 AM EST THU JAN 14 2010

VALID 12Z MON JAN 18 2010 - 12Z THU JAN 21 2010



...HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWS/FLOODING THREAT FOR THE WEST
COAST...
...POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HVY RAINS LOWER MS VALLEY AND
GULF COAST...

GOOD MODEL OVERALL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD AS THE FAST JET FINALLY
SHOWS EL NINO TRAITS AS IT DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST
WITH A TYPICAL SPLITTING OF THE FLOW INTO TWO SEPERATE STREAMS.
THE NRN BRANCH TURNS NEWD AND THEN EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN TIER OF STATES KEEPING ABOVE AVERAGE HTS WITH A VERY NOTICABLE
POSITIVE HT ANOMALY OVER S CENTRAL CANADA EVENTUALLY CENTERING
UPON HUDSON BAY. THIS SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES WILL KEEP COLD AIR
INTRUSIONS OUT OF CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MORE SOUTHERN
BRANCH WILL BE OVERWHELMINGLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT DRIVES
INTO CENTRAL AND THEN SRN CA AND BAJA AND EWD ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS/MEXICO BORDER AND EWD ACROSS THE GLFMEX. NEG EPAC HT
ANOMALIES INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD AS THE PAC/ASIAN JET CORE WITH
UPWARDS OF 200 KTS AT H250 DROPS SWD AND APPROACHS THE SRN CA
COAST. HT ANOMALIES AT H500 ARE IN THE 3 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE
BUT THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET FLOW EXCEEDS 5.

AS THE UPSTREAM FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS AN EXITING CLOSED
SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW WHICH IS BASICALLY WELL AGREED UPON MOVES
EWD ON DAY 3 SUN INTO THE MID ATL STATES REGION AND EXITS
OFFSHORE. 00Z GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT PHASES IN A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE INTO THE SRN STREAM FEATURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
RESULTS IN A PHASED STRONGER CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL LOW SOLUTION
OVER NEW ENG MON WITH A DEEP SFC LOW OFF THE NEW ENG COAST AND
BRINGING DOWN A COLD SURGE ON THE BACKSIDE ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER
OF CONUS. OTHER MODELS AND MEANS KEEP THIS UNPHASED RESULTING IN A
WEAKER MORE SRLY OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE SFC WELL LOW OFFSHORE. THIS
UNPHASED SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER ERN CONUS THRU MID WEEK.

ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 TO 4 SURGES COMING INTO
THE WEST COAST IN THE FAST PAC FLOW THIS PERIOD EACH WITH ROUNDS
OF HVY PCPN. AT THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO COME IN AROUND
SAT-SUN..MON..TUES AND ANOTHER THURS-FRI WITH MORE TO FOLLOW.
MONDAYS SURGE HITS THE ENTIRE COAST FROM VANCOUVER SOUTH TO PT
CONCEPTION BUT THEN AS THE HTS FALL AND THE JET CORE SHIFTS SWD
THE TARGET AREA WILL BE MORE INTO CENTRAL CA AND SRN CA TUES
ONWARD. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN
OVERALL RANGE OF 7-12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA AND ESPECIALLY SOCAL. SOME LOCAL
FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH 20 INCH LIQUID
AMOUNTS. VERY HVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
FLOODING MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY. A HEAVY RAIN THEAT FOR
AZ APPEARS IN STORE THURS INTO SAT. SEE CPC THREAT ANALYSIS AND
LOCAL NWS OFFICE STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES AND EVENTUALLY WARNINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH PAC RECON REQUESTED.

AS THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET CORE DRIVES EWD THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
COMING ACROSS SOCAL WED WILL MOVE ACROSS TX BY THURSDAY. ALL
MODELS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A WEAKER
PRECEDING SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD AS IT APPROACHS THE ERN CONUS RIDGE. ECMWF TAKES THIS
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW WEST OF OTHER MODELS UP THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURS-FRI WHILE GFS DRIVES NWD TO
OFF THE MID ATL COAST. CMC ORIGINATES A MORE SRLY TRACK INTIALLY
THEN TAKES IT UP THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPLCHN SPINE. THIS MORE SRN
DEVELOP AND OH VALLY TRACK IS PREFERED BY HPC FOR DAYS 6-7. THIS
WILL BREAK OUT ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THURS SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
INTO FLORIDA. ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

HPC UPDATED PRELIM PROGS AND MODEL PREFERENCE IS A COMBINATION OF
ECMWF AND CMC WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF THE CMC TO THE DOMINANT
MODEL BY DAY 7 THURS.
ROSENSTEIN

Pacific RECON is scheduled...

NOUS42 KNHC 141830
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EST THU 14 JANUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JANUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-045

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. P99/ 37.2N 173.7E/ 16/1200Z
B. NOAA9 03WSW TRACK99
C. 16/0800Z
D. DROPS EVERY 20 MINUTES ON TRACK
E. 39,000 TO 45,000 FT
F. TRACK ALONG POINTS: 37.2N 142.7E, 38.8N 151.2E,
40.2N 160.0E, 38.8N 170.5E, 37.2N 173.7E,
34.9N 171.2E, 34.0N 164.5E, 34.0N 152.2E AND
36.3N 140.3E

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/14/10 2056Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2045Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...LOUISIANA
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...LCH...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...LEAD SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH...UPPER LOW TO REALLY ACT ON MOISTURE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IF THERE WAS EVER A CLASSIC POTENTIAL
HVY RAIN LOOKING EVENT ON SATELLITE...THIS WAS IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. UPPER LOW ON WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SE THRU AZ. STILL STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON WEST SIDE FOR FURTHER
DEEPENING/DIGGING...ALREADY FORCING CONVECTION CONVECTION IN MEXICO AND
HEADING FOR THE RIO GRANDE. THESE SPOKES OF SHORT WAVES WILL FURTHER
MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
CONSIDERING MODELS WERE TOO TAME AND LIGHT WITH PRECIP SO FAR BACK TO
YESTERDAY...WILL SEE IF THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY LATCHED ON TO DEEPENING
MOISTURE CENTRAL AND E TX AS SHORT WAVES AND FINALLY UPPER LOW APPROACH.
OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN WAS MODERATE TO HVY RAIN/CONVECTION STILL MOSTLY OVER
THE WESTERN GULF BUT ALSO MORE MOVING INLAND AND DEEPENING MOISTURE A LOT
ACROSS FAR E TX AND W GULF OF MEXICO...SO THAT AREA MAY BEAR WATCHING
CLOSELY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FROM SHORT WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WEST
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...ONLY BECAUSE MOISTURE DOES NOT HAVE TO DEEPENING
AS MUCH AS FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. PWAT VALUES HAVE INCRD TO 1.3"
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TX AND THAT CLOSE TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AS TROUGH DRAWS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3098 9841 2982 9505 2904 9563 2713 9997 2954 10255
2999 10115
.
NNNN

Yea, read in the paper the other day that the Hurricane Hunters were flying winter storms out of Anchorage Alaska.....MGC

ECMWF just keeps hitting on a major event for S CA with a persistant +200kt 250mb Jet off the Pacific. Noticed the Oxnard AFD stated snow will likely be measured in yards, not feet. AZ/NV are also in a rather serious threat is with this El Nino Pattern that has not been seen in that part of the Country since the 90's. Look for some major flooding/mudslide issues in burn areas as well as Very Heavy snow totals in the Higher Elevations. Yikes!

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
853 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2010

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 19 2010 - 12Z FRI JAN 22 2010


...MULTIDAY HEAVY WEST COAST PRECIPITATION THREAT...

VERY STRONG ASIAN/PAC JET CORE AIMS AT THE WEST COAST THIS PERIOD.
CURRENT NRN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CANADA WILL BE REPLACED BY
A CONTINUED DRIFT SWD OF THE NOAM WESTERLIES AS THE PAC JET DRIVES
ONSHORE AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW FEATURE. THIS JET CORE
180-200 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE 10 DAY PERIOD. A MID LEVEL
POSITIVE HT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER ERN AND CENTRAL CANADA
SETTLING OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE EPAC HTS WILL LOWER THRU THE TIME
PERIOD AND BECOME THE MAJOR ANOMALY FEATURE. D+8-11 COMPOSITE
ANALOGS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW INDICATE JAN FEB 1998 AND JAN 1995.
THESE WERE MULTIDAY VERY HEAVY PCPN EVENTS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
CA.

TIMING OF IMPULSES IN THE FAST PAC FLOW MOT AS WELL DEFINED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND A COMPOSITE AMALGAM OF CMC/ECMWF
AND GFS USED FOR DAYS 3-5 MON-WED THEN A SHIFT TOWARDS A BETTER
AGREED UPON BUT LOWER RESOLUTION GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS OVER CONUS.
THE LATE PERIOD SHIFT TOWARDS THE MEANS CONCERNS THE DIFFERENT
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN PLAINS AND ITS TRACK EWD
INTO THE MEAN ERN CONUS RIDGING. GFS/GFS ENS MEAN AND CMC KEEP
LOWER MID LEVEL HTS AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF
THE NATION DAYS 6-7
THU/FRI. CMC REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH IS SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT WHICH APPEARS EXCESSIVE. ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE HIGHER
ERN CONUS HTS WITH MUCH MORE WARM ADVECTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS
DAYS. PREFER A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENS MEANS WHICH ARE SIMILAR
WITH A TREND OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG/SERN CANADA.

CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA...MULTIDAY HVY PCPN EVENT APPEARS IMMINENT WITH
A POTENTIAL ANALOGS TO THE EVENTS OF JAN/FEB 1995 AND 1998. MODEL
QPF OUTPUT OF CMC/ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE INITIALLY
COVERING ALL OF THE STATES BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SHOULD SHIFT
SWD THRU CENTRAL AND THEN SRN CA AND EWD ACROSS AZ. 4-5 MULTIDAY
MODEL OUTPUT OF GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WIDESPREAD LIQUID 6-8 INCHES
OVER THE STATE AND CENTRAL AZ WITH MAXES CENTERED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. CMC SEEMS MORE REALISTIC WITH 15 INCH MAX OVER HIGHER
SOCAL TERRAIN. BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND PAST EVENTS EVEN
THE HIGHER MODEL OUTPUT OF CMC IS WELL UNDERDONE. RAINS AND HIGHER
ELEV SNOWS WILL COME IN SURGES WHICH ARE NOT AS WELL TIMED TODAY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCH LOWER ELEVATION RAINS...WITH 10-20
INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND MORE OVER FAVORABLE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGHER ELEV SNOWS FALL MAY RANGE NEAR 10 FEET IN THE
SIERRA AND 4 FEET OVER SOCAL MOUNTANS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY. COASTAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ALONG WITH HVY SURF. THE VERY HVY PCPN WILL
SHIFT INTO AZ WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS
EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. SEE CPC THREATS
ASSESSMENTS AND LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS. CONTINUED PAC RECON REQUEST.

EASTWARD...EXPECT HVY RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE TEXARKANA AREA
AND LOWER MS VALLEY SPREADING EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC
REGION LATE WEEK. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE
AND POSSIBLE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW THRU THE MID ATL STATES REGION
BY FRI WITH POSSIBILITY AS SEEN BY ALL MODELS OF THIS BEING A VERY
WET AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH ATLC COASTAL GALE POTENTIAL.
POSSIBILITY OF AN ICING EVENT AT HIGHER ELEVS OF WV/VA/MD/PA.
ROSENSTEIN

The good thing is we are going to have multi day Upper Air Sampling from the G-IV missions it appears. Hopefully some very good data for future guidance...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
157 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2010

VALID 12Z MON JAN 18 2010 - 12Z FRI JAN 22 2010


...MULTIDAY HEAVY WEST COAST PRECIPITATION THREAT...

VERY STRONG ASIAN/PAC JET CORE AIMS AT THE WEST COAST THIS PERIOD.
CURRENT NRN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CANADA WILL BE REPLACED BY
A CONTINUED DRIFT SWD OF THE NOAM WESTERLIES AS THE PAC JET DRIVES
ONSHORE AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW FEATURE. THIS JET CORE
180-200 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE 10 DAY PERIOD. A MID LEVEL
POSITIVE HT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER ERN AND CENTRAL CANADA
SETTLING OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE EPAC HTS WILL LOWER THRU THE TIME
PERIOD AND BECOME THE MAJOR ANOMALY FEATURE. D+8-11 COMPOSITE
ANALOGS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW INDICATE JAN FEB 1998 AND JAN 1995.
THESE WERE MULTIDAY VERY HEAVY PCPN EVENTS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
CA.

TIMING OF IMPULSES IN THE FAST PAC FLOW MOT AS WELL DEFINED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND A COMPOSITE AMALGAM OF CMC/ECMWF
AND GFS USED FOR DAYS 3-5 MON-WED THEN A SHIFT TOWARDS A BETTER
AGREED UPON BUT LOWER RESOLUTION GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS OVER CONUS.
THE LATE PERIOD SHIFT TOWARDS THE MEANS CONCERNS THE DIFFERENT
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SRN PLAINS AND ITS TRACK EWD
INTO THE MEAN ERN CONUS RIDGING. GFS/GFS ENS MEAN AND CMC KEEP
LOWER MID LEVEL HTS AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF
THE NATION DAYS 6-7
THU/FRI. 00Z CMC REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH ITS SRN PLAINS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WHICH APPEARS EXCESSIVE. ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE
HIGHER ERN CONUS HTS WITH MUCH MORE WARM ADVECTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS DAYS 6-7. PREFER A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENS MEANS WHICH
ARE SIMILAR WITH A TREND OF HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG/SERN
CANADA. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS.

CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA...MULTIDAY HVY PCPN EVENT APPEARS IMMINENT WITH
A POTENTIAL ANALOGS TO THE EVENTS OF JAN/FEB 1995 AND 1998. MODEL
QPF OUTPUT OF CMC/ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE INITIALLY
COVERING ALL OF THE STATES BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SHOULD SHIFT
SWD THRU CENTRAL AND THEN SRN CA AND EWD ACROSS AZ. 4-5 MULTIDAY
MODEL OUTPUT OF GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WIDESPREAD LIQUID 6-8 INCHES
OVER THE STATE AND CENTRAL AZ WITH MAXES CENTERED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. CMC SEEMS MORE REALISTIC WITH 15 INCH MAX OVER HIGHER
SOCAL TERRAIN. BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND PAST EVENTS EVEN
THE HIGHER MODEL OUTPUT OF CMC IS WELL UNDERDONE. RAINS AND HIGHER
ELEV SNOWS WILL COME IN SURGES WHICH ARE NOT AS WELL TIMED TODAY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCH LOWER ELEVATION RAINS...WITH 10-20
INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND MORE OVER FAVORABLE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGHER ELEV SNOWS FALL MAY RANGE NEAR 10 FEET IN THE
SIERRA AND 4 FEET OVER SOCAL MOUNTANS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY. COASTAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS AND HVY SURF. THE VERY
HVY PCPN WILL SHIFT INTO AZ WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM. THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
SEE CPC THREATS ASSESSMENTS AND LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE
DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. CONTINUED PAC RECON REQUEST
WITH FLIGHT SCHEDULED OUT OF JAPAN SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
TUESDAY.

EASTWARD...EXPECT HVY RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE TEXARKANA AREA
AND LOWER MS VALLEY SPREADING EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC
REGION LATE WEEK. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE
AND POSSIBLE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW THRU THE MID ATL STATES REGION
BY FRI WITH POSSIBILITY AS SEEN BY ALL MODELS OF THIS BEING A VERY
WET AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH ATLC COASTAL GALE POTENTIAL.
POSSIBILITY OF AN ICING EVENT AT HIGHER ELEVS OF WV/VA/MD/PA. DAY
7 LOOKING VERY MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF DAY 3.
ROSENSTEIN

Guidance continues to advertise a major CA-AZ El Nino Event. Some of the analogs mention by the HPC are very concerning. We may see many reports in the news should the pattern this week verify...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
816 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 12Z WED JAN 20 2010 - 12Z SAT JAN 23 2010



...EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT CONTIUNUES FOR CA AND AZ...


THE VERY STRONG SRN STREAM JET WILL DOMINATE PAC AND NOAM WEATHER
THRU THIS PERIOD AS IT DRIVES A 180KT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO CA AND
EWD ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES. FAST MOVING IMPULSES IN THE JET
WILL BRING COPIOUS RAINS AND MTN SNOWS INTO CA AND AZ OVER A MULTI
DAY PERIOD. D+8-11 COMPOSITE ANALOGS CONT TO BE SIMILAR TO THE EL
NINO YEARS OF 1983 1995 AND 1998. 1995 AND 1998 PRODUCED VERY HVY
MULTIDAY PCPN EVENTS OVER CA AND INTO AZ WITH THIS PATTERN QUITE
SIMILAR.

THE JET CORE COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IS WELL AGREED UPON BY
MODELS AND ENS MEANS. IMPULSES IN THE NWD DISPLACED NRN STREAM
CAUSE PROBLEMS IN THE DAILIES WITH THE GFS SERIES DROPPING A SHARP
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW INTO NEW ENG DAY 4 WED WHILE ITS ENS AND
ECMWF KEEP IT NWD WITH THE SRN STREAM FLOW BEING DOMINANT. THIS
RESULTS IN AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE OP GFS. BY LATE PERIOD THE
GFS WHOLEY BRINGS INLAND ITS DEEP NEG HT ANOMALY/TROF TO THE
FOURCORNERS AREA WITH A BROAD DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS DAYS
7-8. ITS ENS MEAN AGREES AS DOES NAEFS AND A LAGGED AVERAGE
FORECAST.

ECMWF ALSO DROPS SWD AS POLAR VORTEX FROM THE NRN STREAM OVER NEW
ENG DAYS 7-8 AS A RESULT OF PHASING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES. THIS
REMAINS AN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER AS THIS IS DEEPER THAN ANY OF ITS
ENS MEMBERS. THERE IS A VERY BROAD RANGE IN THE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS YIELDING VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION.
WESTWARD THE LARGE CLOSED LOW THAT GFS BRINGS TO PLAINS IS
SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND THE ECMWF MEAN BY BRINGING IN A
FLATER SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DAYS 7-8.


A LATE PERIOD MODEL FIGHT UNSUES BETWEEN OP GFS AND ECMWF BUT AN
ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE CAN BE SEEN BY INCORPORATING THE CMC AND
ECMWF ENS MEAN SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE SIMILAR. EARLY ON DAY 3 IS
BLENDED BY 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BUT AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF GFS
AND ECMW ENS MEANS ARE USED FOR DAYS 4-5 WED-THU. DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT
ARE DOMINATED BY THE CMC AND ECMWF ENS MEAN WITH A PREFERENCE
TOWARDS THE FLATTER LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION CONTROLLED BY THE
STRONG SRN STREAM JET FLOW.

LARGEST CONUS WX IMPACT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MULTIDAY HVY PCPN
EVENT INTO CA AND AZ WHERE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. VERY HIGH MODEL QPF OUTPUT COVERING CA AND AZ RESULT IN
4-5 DAY TOTALS OF 4-8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUMS IN THE SIERRA AND
COASTAL RANGES/SRN CA MTNS AND MOGOLLON MESA OF 10-12 INCHES
LIQUID. THESE ARE MOST LIKELY WELL UNDERDONE BASED ON SIMILAR PAST
EVENTS OF 1995 AND 1998. EXPECT 4-8 WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH UP TO 20
INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND EVEN HIGHER OVER SOME FAVORABLE
AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CA MTNS. THE SIERRAS CAN EXPECT UP TO
10 FEET OF SNOW WITH THE SOCAL MTNS NEAR 4 FEET. LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND MUDLSIDE PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODIC HIGH
WINDS/ HIGH WAVES AND SURF. SEE CPC THEATS AND LOCAL NWD FORECAST
OFFICE DISCUSSIONS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT.

CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS WILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY AND THEN THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUES AND WED AS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SECOND STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS LATE WED TO OFF
THE MID ATLC COAST AND NORTHEAST COAST FRI AS ANOTHER MDT TO
LOCALLY HVY RAIN EVENT. THIRD IN THE SERIES OF CENTRAL TO SRN HIGH
PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS EVENTS OCCURS FRI-SAT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
TOWARDS NRN IL. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH
AND MORE SNOW COULD BE SEEN ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF ITS TRACK IN
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY SAT-SUN.
ROSENSTEIN

HPC continues to paint a series of storms for the upcoming week riding a +200kts 250 mb Jet streak. It appears the second of these rapidly moving storm systems will be the strongest in a very fast flow coming onshore. RECON ( G-IV) Upper Air Data ( yesterday ) has played a role in better solutions via th OP 00Z's and we will like see another mission tomorrow...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
902 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 12Z THU JAN 21 2010 - 12Z SUN JAN 24 2010

...PROLONGED STORMY CONDITIONS AND EXCESSIVE PCPN EPISODE FOR
CA/SW US ALL WEEK...
...SRN/SERN US TO EAST COAST/WRN ATLC COASTAL LOW PCPN THU/FRI...
...SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL US STORM POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES WITH POTENT
EMBEDDED SYSTEMS AND SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS...BUT SEEM
IN REASONABLE LARGER SCALE AGREEMENT OVERALL INTO MID-LATE WEEK AS
POTENT PACIFIC ENERGIES PUNCH INTO CA UNDERNEATH HIGHER LATITUDE
ERN DEEP LAYERED CLOSED LOW.

IN THIS PATTERN...SOME ENERGY/PCPN THEN SPLITS INTO A MORE NRN
BRANCH AND LIFTS UP THE COAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NE PAC
MEAN CLOSED LOW POSITION AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE CENTERED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LEADS TO FURTHER DOWNSTREAM MEAN
TROUGHING/COOLING THROUGH THE NERN US. MEANWHILE...LEAD SRN STREAM
SYSTEM/LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL WITH
GULF OF MEXICO THEN ATLC INFLOW CUTS UNDERNEATH OUT THROUGH THE
SRN/SERN US THU AND WRAPPING UP OFF THE EAST COAST FRI INTO SAT.

BACK UPSTREAM...THE BULK OF PACIFIC ENERGY SLAMS INLAND WITHIN A
STRENGTHENING SRN STREAM FLOW NEXT WEEK. A STEADY DIET OF MOIST
SYSTEMS SLAM INLAND FROM CA THROUGH THE SWRN US/S-CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO DEEP CENTRAL US
CYCLOGENESIS/HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND. HPC POINTS TO
THESE SYSTEMS AS HIGH RISK EVENTS FOR EVALUATION FOR POTENTIAL WRN
PAC TARGETED OBSERVATION FLIGHTS OUT OF JAPAN THAT OFTEN REDUCE
DOWNSTREAM MODEL ERROR...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING CONSIDERABLE DEEP
LOW MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES NOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC.

UPDATED HPC PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF 70% 00 UTC ECMWF AND 30% NAEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN WED-FRI...TRANSITIONING TO A 50-50 SPLIT NEXT WEEKEND.
HPC SHORT RANGE MODEL PREFERENCES LEANING MORE ON THE ECMWF SHOULD
STILL BENEFIT FROM INFUSION OF SOME ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE
CONSIDERING EMBEDDED SYSTEM DIFFERENCES. PREFER A LARGER ENSEMBLE
DOSE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AS AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN ECMWF SRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE US
SEEMS PRUDENT CONSIDERING LATEST WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW
LOOPS. A GOOD BIT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR THE
NATION...FROM THE WEST WHERE THE PACIFIC JET WILL CONTINUE TO RUSH
INLAND...TO THE PLAINS AND NORTHEAST WHERE THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL SUPPLY ENOUGH COLD AIR.

CISCO/SCHICHTEL

Have any of these events started to unfold in CA/NV? I haven't seen a lot of news/weather this weekend due to various commitments so I am somewhat at a loss so far. It appears to me that the split flow will cause storminess both in our area and along the ATL coast later as well as in the NE.

vbhoutex wrote:Have any of these events started to unfold in CA/NV? I haven't seen a lot of news/weather this weekend due to various commitments so I am somewhat at a loss so far. It appears to me that the split flow will cause storminess both in our area and along the ATL coast later as well as in the NE.

The first storm arrives tomorrow David. Lake Tahoe region is expecting up to 3 feet with the first system. The second in a series of 3 storms this week looks to be the one that will be a major event in CA, NV, AZ and NM. Some offshore wave data I've seen in the Pacific is in the 30-40 ft range. The pattern looks locked in for the next couple of weeks as well. The 12Z GFS 250mb wind heights are worrisome to say the least...



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nat_hazard.php

Also appears we will have another G-IV Mission on Tuesday as well...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST SUN 17 JANUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P99/ 32.5N 165.9E/ 19/1200Z
B. NOAA9 04WSW TRACK99
C. 19/0800Z
D. DROPS EVERY 20 MINUTES ALONG TRACK
E. 39,000 TO 45,000 FT
F. TRACK ALONG POINTS: 35.7N 139.9E, 37.3N 146.6E,
36.8N 153.6E, 36.7N 162.9E, 32.5N 165.9E, 28.4N 163.3E,
31.8N 155.5E, 26.7N 153.9W, 32.1N 149.5E, 34.1N 145.3E,
35.3N 139.2E.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION
CNTRD AROUND 20/1200Z, TRACK TO BE DETERMINED.

Worrisome Weather Graphic News out of NW-Phoenix, AZ this morning...



http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/pns/WxStory/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
530 AM PST MON JAN 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND HIGH SURF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT HAVE RANGED FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS TO AROUND ONE THIRD INCH ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH...MAINLY WEST OF THE CAJON PASS. SOUTHERN AREAS MAINLY ONE
TENTH INCH OR LESS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...THEN
DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE COAST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ON COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
TO 8 INCHES ON SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES...MAINLY IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL DRIER AIR IN NORTHERN AREAS WITH SNOW
LEVELS HAVING LOWERED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 6500 FEET AS SHOWN BY RADAR BRIGHT BAND DATA. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
CONTINUES...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 7500 FEET
DURING THE MORNING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
WEEK...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE IN ADVANCE OF EACH STORM...THEN FALL
BEHIND EACH WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND DURING THE WEEK FROM
AROUND 7500 FEET TODAY...TO 4500 T0 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

WITH THE VERY FAST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STORMS WILL BE
ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 24 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR WITH THIS FIRST STORM MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS ALSO MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE STORM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST POWERFUL IN THE SERIES.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY PREFRONTAL SOUTH WINDS IN
COASTAL AREAS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING WARMING AND DRYING FOR THE
WEEKEND. THEN THE PACIFIC REOPENS FOR MORE STORMS NEXT WEEK...BUT
THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE FARTHER NORTH WITH LESS IMPACT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WITH 15 TO LOCALLY
25 INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ON
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY ABOVE 7000 FEET...2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

Appears G-IV RECON will earn it's keep for awhile...

NOUS42 KNHC 181800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 18 JANUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JANUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P99/ 35.9N 172.1E/ 20/1200Z
B. NOAA9 05WSW TRACK99
C. 20/0800Z
D. DROPS EVERY 20 MINUTES ALONG TRACK EAST OE 148.0E
E. 39,000 TO 45,000 FT
F. TRACK ALONG POINTS: 36.5N 141.2E, 37.6N 145.5E,
39.4N 154.0E, 38.6N 160.5E, 37.3N 167.2E, 35.9N
172.1E, 33.0N 170.7E, 31.1N 167.3W, 28.9N 164.5E,
32.4N 160.1E, 33.9N 155.2E, 34.9N 150.1E AND
36.2N 140.4E.
G. REMARKS: DROPS BEGIN AND END AT 148.0E.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION TO PHNL
CENTERED AROUND 21/1200Z, TRACK TO BE DETERMINED.
JWP

My local news station showed our next storm at the end of the week coming from California. It was showing the dopplar radar of the West Coast and you can see the heavy moisture already coming onshore.

Even the red carpet interviews for the Golden Globes last night were held under umbrellas.

I guess that the one good thing about the storm is the amount of snow in the higher elevations which will help to provide water during the warmer months - as long as there is no quick melt off.

Something we don't see everyday in SO CA. 2% Hatched for tornadoes...



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG PARTS OF THE CA CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL /180+ KT/ ZONAL JET OVER THE PACIFIC WILL ADVANCE E ALONG
THE U.S.-MEXICAN BORDER THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN IT SWEEP E/ESE ACROSS CA AND THE SWRN STATES. LEAD
IMPULSE THAT MOVED ASHORE YESTERDAY IS NOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS.
IT SHOULD CONTINUE E/NE TO ERN KS BY 12Z WED AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH...NOW NEARING THE CA CST...REACHES CNTRL AZ.

SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW APPROACHING CA IS LOCATED ABOUT
300 W OF ASTORIA ORE. THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY N AS TRAILING
FRONTAL BAND MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA THROUGH MIDDAY. LATER
TODAY...EXPECT A SECONDARY SFC WAVE TO EVOLVE OFF THE SRN CA CST AS
SRN PART OF THE UPR TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND HEADS E TOWARD THE LWR CO
VLY. INVIGORATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
MOVE E ACROSS AZ TONIGHT/EARLY WED.

FARTHER E...WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM OK INTO THE LWR OH VLY
SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME. LEE CYCLONE EVOLVING OVER
THE SRN HI PLNS TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO FOUR CORNERS UPR
IMPULSE...SHOULD TRACK ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT/EARLY WED.

...CSTL CNTRL/NRN CA AND FAR SW ORE...
FRONTAL BAND NOW APPROACHING THE NRN/CNTRL CA CST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. LIGHTNING DETECTION AND SATELLITE DATA
CONTINUE TO SHOW BROKEN LINES OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT.
THUS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST FOR
INTERMITTENT LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THIS
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE CST...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL OFFSET RELATIVELY LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW AOB
.75 INCHES/.

THIS AFTN...MORE WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
CNTRL AND NRN CA IN DEEP...COOL...POST-TROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW.
ALTHOUGH TIMING RELATIVE TO DIURNAL CYCLE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUCH DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY...LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT MAY WEAKEN OVER REGION AS MAIN AREA OF ASCENT SHIFTS S
INTO SRN CA. COOL AIR ALOFT MAY...NEVERTHELESS...YIELD HAIL IN A
FEW SPOTS.

...SRN CA CST...
ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS ALSO MAY ACCOMPANY AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BAND
IN SRN CA TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO...MAY LINGER/DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS UVV AND WINDS INCREASE INVOF DEVELOPING SFC
LOW W OF LAX/SAN. BACKED LOW LVL FLOW E OF THE LOW...AVAILABILITY
OF LOW 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS...AND SUBSTANTIAL JET EXIT AGEOSTROPHIC
FORCING MAY PRODUCE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

...LWR CO VLY/AZ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...
THE SRN CA COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E INTO AZ TONIGHT/EARLY WED.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE SPREADING UP
THE LWR CO VLY. WIND PROFILES/THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY YIELD ISOLD
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS EARLY WED...
WAA WILL STRENGTHEN OVER AR/SRN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN TONIGHT/EARLY WED
AS SRN HI PLNS SFC LOW MOVES ENE AND ASSOCIATED UPR IMPULSE ASSUMES
A NEGATIVE TILT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INITIALLY WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT LIKELY WILL IMPROVE /GIVEN CURRENT VALUES UPSTREAM
ACROSS E TX AND LA/...TO POSE A THREAT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS IN EXIT
REGION OF SWLY LLJ. THESE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 09Z...AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO ABOVE 750 J/KG.

..CORFIDI.. 01/19/2010

The slight risk along almost the entire California coast is definitely quite rare.

From Nesdis...

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
CAZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/19/10 2033Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST 2023Z JS
.
LOCATION...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
.
ATTN WFOS...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...
ATTN RFCS...CNRFC...
.
EVENT...EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS WITH RAIN RATES OVER .5"/HR MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...NO CURRENT MICROWAVE DATA AT THIS TIME TO
CAPTURE AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO S CA. HOWEVER,
IR/VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL DEFINED CONVECTION MOVING INTO
VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY POINTS SOUTHWARD. SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH CLOUD
TOPS COOLING AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AROUND CATALINA ISLAND. LATEST
SPC MCD ALSO POINTS OUT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS PARTICULAR
CLUSTER WHICH APPEARS TO BE AIMED AT EXTREME S LA COUNTY AND ORANGE
COUNTY. ESTIMATED RATES BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA AND CURRENT GOES
IMAGERY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE APPROACHING THE S CA COAST
ARE IN THE .5-1.0"/HR RANGE WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS
FROM AVALON(KAVX) WHERE .61" FELL IN THE PAST HOUR WITH INSTANTANEOUS
RATES BRIEFLY NEARING OR EXCEEDING 1"/HR. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS BEING
PROVIDED BY VERY STRONG JET STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST PACIFIC
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS SHOWING OVER 180KTS BETWEEN
30-35N AND 125-130W. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY WITH
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY LIMITED TO THE SHORTER TERM(1-2 HOURS OR SO). A
SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN CA, ESPECIALLY FROM
ORANGE/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES SOUTHWARD INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY AS ADDITIONAL
WEAKER CELLS ARE LINED UP OFFSHORE TO THE SW.

Well, I can say as someone who had to drive thru the stuff we definitely got hammered this morning here in the Bay Area. An unofficial report I heard on the radio mentioned a 125 mph gust up on the top of Mt. Diablo (not sure how reliable that is)

The sun teased us for about an hour at around lunchtime but now it's clouding up again - looks like another squall line is about to hit us and then the big scary one they've been chatting up here is supposed to smack us tomorrow.

Driving tomorrow will be no picnic for sure...ugh!