STORM2K

It has been about normal so far, with one EF3 tornado occurring in Texas last month. The winter storm that hit the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend caused me to wonder what a storm of similar strength would have produced severe-weather wise had it occurred in May or June. Were the right synoptics in place for a significant tornado outbreak along the east coast? If this pattern persists, I wonder if Oklahoma and the lower Ohio Valley, and potentially the Mid-Atlantic region would have an above-average number severe thunderstorms/tornadoes to worry about come springtime. Any thoughts?

Interesting thoughts, but I think the El Nino that is helping keep the current pattern in place will be weakening and heading into the neutral area as we get deeper into spring. That would tend to lead to a more "normal" pattern for severe weather at that time.
If this pattern holds with warmer air in place I will be very interested in what it produces weather wise.

From my count, we are 5 days away from something EXTREMELY rare: a tornado-free month in the US. There hasn't been a single report in February. The last month I am aware of with no tornadoes was January 2003. That certainly appears within reach, since I don't see any severe weather events in the next 5 days.

CrazyC83 wrote:From my count, we are 5 days away from something EXTREMELY rare: a tornado-free month in the US. There hasn't been a single report in February. The last month I am aware of with no tornadoes was January 2003. That certainly appears within reach, since I don't see any severe weather events in the next 5 days.

I thought there was a tornado or 2 reported in FL this month. I haven't checked any sources though so I could easily be wrong.

vbhoutex wrote:

CrazyC83 wrote:From my count, we are 5 days away from something EXTREMELY rare: a tornado-free month in the US. There hasn't been a single report in February. The last month I am aware of with no tornadoes was January 2003. That certainly appears within reach, since I don't see any severe weather events in the next 5 days.

I thought there was a tornado or 2 reported in FL this month. I haven't checked any sources though so I could easily be wrong.

No there weren't. There may have been funnel clouds but no tornadoes. The final numbers may find 1 or 2, but they aren't on the SPC maps.

Quite an impressive fact, though not all that shocking given the Arctic has been in total control over much of the states this Feb.

KWT wrote:Quite an impressive fact, though not all that shocking given the Arctic has been in total control over much of the states this Feb.

That is just it - nothing has been able to penetrate the cold air. But that doesn't mean things will hold up inactive in the months ahead though...

There are now only five tornado-free months that I am aware of since 1950:

October 1952
December 1963
January 1986
January 2003
February 2010 (preliminary)

It is possible they may find 1 or 2 tornadoes in the post-analysis, most likely on February 5 (anniversary of an infamous outbreak!) in Florida.

GFS is showing a cold core setup over the central US next weekend. Way out there though.

While it is often exciting (and dangerous) to see major activity, a rare month of 0 tornadoes is quite interesting as well. A huge break for the emergency managers too (busy with winter weather). Quite a contrast from the 147 tornadoes of February 2008! (about 60% of those were from a single outbreak)

I suspect its only a matter of time before the cold retreats northwards and with the jet stream being quite strong this winter I'd bet there will be a very active spell developing towards the end of March and early April.

We shall see!

KWT wrote:I suspect its only a matter of time before the cold retreats northwards and with the jet stream being quite strong this winter I'd bet there will be a very active spell developing towards the end of March and early April.

We shall see!

A super-inactive month doesn't give much indication at all on what lies ahead. 2003 started with a tornado-free January and was really slow right up to mid-April, and then had an insane stretch in the first two weeks of May. 2004 also started really slow (59 tornadoes at the end of March and 9 at the end of February), then there was record or near-record activity from mid-May right to Thanksgiving.

CrazyC83 wrote:

KWT wrote:I suspect its only a matter of time before the cold retreats northwards and with the jet stream being quite strong this winter I'd bet there will be a very active spell developing towards the end of March and early April.

We shall see!

A super-inactive month doesn't give much indication at all on what lies ahead. 2003 started with a tornado-free January and was really slow right up to mid-April, and then had an insane stretch in the first two weeks of May. 2004 also started really slow (59 tornadoes at the end of March and 9 at the end of February), then there was record or near-record activity from mid-May right to Thanksgiving.

Keep an eye out, you just never know when a major tornado outbreak could happen or where

CrazyC83 wrote:
A super-inactive month doesn't give much indication at all on what lies ahead. 2003 started with a tornado-free January and was really slow right up to mid-April, and then had an insane stretch in the first two weeks of May. 2004 also started really slow (59 tornadoes at the end of March and 9 at the end of February), then there was record or near-record activity from mid-May right to Thanksgiving.

Yeah I agree, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we do get a very active burst at some point though simply due to the strong southern jet arm, just need to wait for things to fall into place.

Brand new footage of Andover, Kansas F5 tornado April 26, 1991. Let's hope we see nothing like this infamous monster this year...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84eHnxRyEV4&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

That is just plain frightening! As much as I would like to witness one close up I can not imagine standing there watching that approach knowing there is nothing you can do to stop it and what it will do to your property, much less wondering if you are going to survive even in your shelter.

Nice footage. Under normal circumstances I don't wish harm upon people who don't deserve it but my god that guy was a complete f'n a$$ho#$. Hopefully he got sucked up in that tornado. His wife should have kicked and locked him out of the house and said you better start running.

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Nice footage. Under normal circumstances I don't wish harm upon people who don't deserve it but my god that guy was a complete f'n a$$ho#$. Hopefully he got sucked up in that tornado. His wife should have kicked and locked him out of the house and said you better start running.

I know my wife would have used those exact words and done exactly that if I had said those things!!!

The tornado-free month has been BROKEN - Confirmed EF0 in Kern County, California on February 27.

CrazyC83 wrote:The tornado-free month has been BROKEN - Confirmed EF0 in Kern County, California on February 27.

do you have a link to this information?