STORM2K

We're about to take Mammaw to the Outer Banks. She's 84 years young. She had a stroke about a year ago and now has limited mobility. She made a comment a few weeks ago that she had always wanted to visit the Outer Banks. So, two daughters have made plans to take her.....departing Saturday morning and driving from southern Mississippi.

We're now confronted with a weather event dilemma. NWS is forecasting severe weather beginning Friday night. It has been suggested that storm spotter activation may be required.

Here's my question. I know nothing about long term forecasting. I don't see anything that's 72 hours out that would suggest such an event.

Would a ProMet please look at SE USA and tell me if this threat of widespread severe weather is for real?

Much appreciated!

I used to live in NC, the weather can be quite fickle, especially near the waters. Here is the latest forecast discussion from MHX involving this weekend for eastern NC:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS EVE WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE STEADIER PCPN WITH IT BUT A FEW SHWRS IN WRAPARND MOISTURE
POSSIBLE FOR OBX INTO EARLY THU MORN. OTHERWISE DRYING NW FLOW
WILL BRING GRADUAL CLEARING. NAM SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CUD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS AFT MIDNIGHT.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SIGNALS A DRY/MILD THU ALTHO
SOME LAYERED CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FULL SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S WILL RESULT INLAND WITH UPPER 60S/NR 70 DEGS
AT THE BEACHES.

A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE DROP THRU THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OR MID LEVEL FORCING TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN. APPEARS NOW AS IF LOWERED THICKNESS VALUES AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE FRI SO HAVE
TRENDED TWD COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND WITH MID 60S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STALLED OUT BACKDOOR FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS WARM FRONT FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WEEKEND LOOKS SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINLY REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES.
BUT ATTM BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...AND THEN SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER THICKNESSES
MOVE OVER AREA.


I know it doesn't help with covering the other states and what not for driving, though.