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Risk of severe storms for 06/02/2010
Posted: Sun May 30, 2010 9:54 pm
by Sunshine™
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY. SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OF INTEREST...INCLUDING ONE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NERN STATES ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN
ROCKIES...REACHING HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. YET ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO WITH ATTENDANT FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SWD BEFORE LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEB IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY...AND GREAT LAKES PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER A
PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD.
SEVERAL OTHER POTENTIAL AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL EXIST
INCLUDING ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME FROM NERN CO INTO SERN WY. STILL
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AUGMENTS ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE STALLING FRONT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL MCSS TO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
...OH VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES...
MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER WINDS
IN WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN MODEST...AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
LIKELIHOOD CLOUDY AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY. WHILE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST WITH STRONGER
STORMS...THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL RISK
AT THIS TIME.
Doesn't look good for the area at all, they've been getting hammered by heavy rain, hail, and wind for a couple of days now.
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2010 6:31 pm
by CrazyC83
It began a day early - 50/30 wind probs seem conservative:
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA
EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 241...
DISCUSSION...UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION AND COLD POOL NEAR OMAHA
APPEARS TO BE THE EARLY STAGES OF A BOWING MCS THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
ESEWD/SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT TOWARD NRN MO. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE W/SW...AND THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME
BACK-BUILDING STORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO NE KS...AND MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE
IA TOWARD WRN IL THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...THOMPSON
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2010 6:34 pm
by KWT
Yep I agree Crazy the wind probs seems a little on the low side, you still worried about a possible Derecho forming?
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2010 6:50 pm
by CrazyC83
Yeah I think there is...
Re: Risk of severe storms for 06/02/2010
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2010 6:50 pm
by CrazyC83
WUUS53 KDMX 012349
SVRDMX
IAC001-003-029-175-020030-
/O.NEW.KDMX.SV.W.0096.100601T2349Z-100602T0030Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
649 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
EASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 645 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES EAST OF OAKLAND...OR 71 MILES SOUTH OF IDA GROVE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENFIELD...WIOTA...CUMBERLAND...ANITA...CARBON...MASSENA...
ADAIR...BRIDGEWATER...FONTANELLE...ORIENT...PRESCOTT AND CROMWELL.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 63 AND 93.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
&&
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR IOWA.
LAT...LON 4101 9494 4115 9495 4118 9490 4150 9490
4150 9431 4098 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 278DEG 40KT 4132 9519
WIND...HAIL 80MPH 1.75IN
$$
DONAVON
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2010 7:23 pm
by KWT
Ouch 80mph gusts is pretty impressive, that certainly does warrant the warnings of very high winds thats for sure!
Re: Risk of severe storms for 06/02/2010
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 1:53 am
by mcallum177
Wow take a look at that convection!
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 9:55 am
by Dave
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:33 am
by cwachal
I am in the slight risk area in western NY where I am currently watching the storms fire from Ohio up over into Ontario Canada
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 12:43 pm
by Dave
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO
MUCH OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
JAMESTOWN NEW YORK TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WHEELING WEST
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
FROM EARLY MCS ACTIVITY. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY
COUPLED WITH 40 KT OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS ENHANCING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING A
POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 12:43 pm
by Dave
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
STARK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO
* UNTIL 230 PM EDT
* AT 124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF WILMOT...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLMESVILLE...AND WAS
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BREWSTER...
NAVARRE...
MASSILLON...
EAST SPARTA...
CANTON...
WAYNESBURG...
LOUISVILLE...
MINERVA...
Posted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 12:44 pm
by Dave
Florida
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
137 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.
* AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
QUEENS COVE...OR NEAR FORT PIERCE INLET...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
SURFSIDE PARK...FORT PIERCE OCEAN PARK AND PEPPER BEACH PARK.
