STORM2K

I thought it would be a good idea to open another thread. Mods may edit the title if wrong

SPC AC 221259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
NEB...SD...IA...SRN MN...SW WI...AND NRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS TO THE OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES/NORTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT SRN PLNS/OZARKS UPR RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT S
LATER THIS PERIOD AS A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER
THE GRT BASIN SHEAR NE INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS BY EVE...AND REACH THE
UPR MS VLY EARLY WED. AT THE SAME TIME...SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE
GRT LKS LATE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE E INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT NOW EVOLVING OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WY
SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE STNRY FRONT NOW
EXTENDING ROUGHLY W-E FROM SRN NEB TO CNTRL IL...DISJOINTED IN
SEVERAL PLACES BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ADVANCES NEWD INTO SE SD/NRN
IA.

SEVERAL CORRIDORS OF SVR WEATHER ONCE AGAIN APPEAR LIKELY IN A BROAD
SWATH FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS TO THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND THE NERN
STATES. POTENTIALLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD THREAT...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF HIGH WIND...MAY EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED OVER
PARTS OF NEB/SE SD/IA/SRN MN/SRN WI AND NRN IL.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING...
SCTD SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/BRIEFLY SVR ELEVATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG STNRY/WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB
INTO CNTRL IL/IND...SUPPORTED BY LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW.

SFC HEATING SHOULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SFC-BASED BY EARLY
AFTN ALONG THE FRONT IN IL/IND...AND PERHAPS A BIT LATER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN IA AND SE SD. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM BY MID-LATE
AFTN ALONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN ERN SD/WRN MN...ALONG LEE TROUGH
IN ER CO/WRN KS....AND IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN ERN WY/SW SD.


GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP SW TO WLY SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION... AND
SBCAPE RANGING FROM AOA 2500 J/KG IN THE HI PLNS TO ABOVE 4000 J/KG
IN THE MS VLY...SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO
POSING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN THE HI PLNS E
INTO CNTRL NEB/SE SD...A THREAT ALSO WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES. THE
LATTER THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HI PLNS...AND INVOF WARM FRONT FROM SE SD ESE
INTO IA/SRN MN.

AFTN STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS THIS EVE...ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH IN PARTS OF SD...WRN/NRN NEB AND NW
KS...AND ALONG WARM FRONT IN IA/MN/IL. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ONE OF THESE CLUSTERS TO GROW INTO A DERECHO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED....MOST LIKELY OVER NERN NEB OR SE SD...AS 50+ KT 500 MB SPEED
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRT BASIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF DMGG WIND E/ESE INTO NRN
IL/SRN WI BY 12Z WED.

...UPR OH VLY INTO MID ATLANTIC ...
MOIST...WSWLY LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT LKS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SFC HEATING...WILL DESTABILIZE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. COUPLED WITH
ASCENT PROVIDED BY TROUGH...EXPECT SCTD CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS BY
MID AFTN ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN
OH/NRN KY INTO WV/MD AND VA. A BAND OF STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG
WAA AXIS THROUGH CNTRL NY/PA. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FROM OH/KY INTO WV. A MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL EXIST OVER AND E OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM MD/NRN VA INTO
NY/PA...CLOSER TO UPR TROUGH. THERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 06/22/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

Bunkertor, I'm going to drop a t-storm watch on this thread for area's east of the plains instead of starting another thread. Here you go:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1035 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL IL/NERN MO HAVE
DEVELOPED COLD POOLS AND REAR INFLOW JETS. WITH AIR MASS
WARMING/DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE WATCH...POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE S OF E.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Low

Go on, Dave. Sure. I´ll go and edit the thread when we see how this turns out.

That will work, I'll be on here when I can be. The ground is saturated up here to the point a 30 mph gust could start dropping power poles. Many places flooded yesterday including 2 fire depts. Just don't need anymore rain. Be back later.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NRN/ERN IA INTO SRN MN...NRN
IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386...387...388...

VALID 230259Z - 230430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
386...387...388...CONTINUES.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z.

CONSOLIDATION OF STRONG SURFACE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER FORCING
DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS
WYOMING...AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF AN
INTENSIFYING 850 MB JET PROGGED INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION...MAY ALL COME IN PHASE BETWEEN NOW AND 06-07Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE...FURTHER UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY IN A MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED
WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. AND THE GENESIS OF A LONG-LIVED
DERECHO TYPE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/23/2010

SPC AC 231255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010



VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
WI...IL...MI...IND...OH...PA...AND UPSTATE NY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THROUGH THE MID MS VLY TO THE
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE SVR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE N CNTRL
AND NERN U.S. AS TWO JET DISTURBANCES TRACK GENERALLY E IN ZONE OF
ENHANCED WLY FLOW ON N FRINGE OF ELONGATED SRN U.S. RIDGE. THE LEAD
IMPULSE...NOW NEARING LK MI...SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO SW ONT BY
EVE...AND ME/NB BY 12Z THU AS UPSTREAM VORT NOW NEAR KRAP SHEARS ENE
TO NEAR LK HURON.

...MID/UPR MS VLY AND MIDWEST TO LWR GRT LKS...
VWP...STLT...AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT BOW MCS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
UPR IMPULSE...NOW OVER WRN LWR MI...SHOULD MOVE MAINLY E ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF LWR MI THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTN... BEFORE
CONTINUING E INTO WRN NY AND PERHAPS NW PA LATER TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG NRN PART OF THIS PATH
IS STILL RECOVERING FROM YESTERDAYS WEAK FRONTAL SURGE...AMPLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY BROAD
SWATH OF DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL GIVEN EVEN MODEST SFC
HEATING. SCTD STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER OHIO AND
WRN PA...INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW. THESE
MAY YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE DAY.

FARTHER W...SFC HEATING AND APPROACH OF SD UPR VORT SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING STORMS...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT...ALONG
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM WI INTO ERN IA AND NRN MO...AND ALONG
TRAILING W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NRN IL AND NRN IND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MI MCS. 40-50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
EML...AND VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST GOOD
LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW LVL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS IN IA/NRN
IL COMPLICATE FORECAST OF THE DOMINANT SVR THREATS THAT WILL BE
POSED. BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/HI PW...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST QUASI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES DURING THE EARLIER STAGES OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND. THE STORMS
LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BROKEN BAND/QLCS FROM NRN/ERN MO
ENE INTO IL/IND AND POSSIBLY SRN MI BY EARLY EVE...WITH THE SVR
THREAT CONTINUING BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...LWR MO VLY TO SRN HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
WITH UPR RIDGE HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE SRN PLNS...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION.
NONETHELESS...FRONTAL UPLIFT AND MOIST/WEAKLY-CAPPED/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TO SCTD STRONG TO
SVR STORMS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SE-MOVING COLD FRONT. DMGG WINDS/SVR
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
AIDED BY A WEAK/CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX...SCTD TSTMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO
PORTIONS OF THE DOWNSTATE CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. SPORADIC DMGG WIND
GUSTS WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVE.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 06/23/2010

Tornado Watch out. With 90/70 wind probs, it would be a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch if it weren't for the early supercells.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST INDIANA
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI MISSOURI
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURLINGTON IOWA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE
ACROSS ERN IA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE AIR MASS NOW EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION VERY STRONG VEERING
WIND PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO
THREAT. STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPSCALE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NRN IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HALES

I think the tornado threat is being underestimated badly...

What makes you think so ? I´m in soccer mode right now.

Wind probs 70/50.

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF WESTERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
LARGE PART OF NOR THEN AND WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF OLATHE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...WW 396...

DISCUSSION...WITH THE AIR MASS VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
WATCH WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG...THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD
ACROSS NWRN MO/ERN KS EXPECTED TO INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...HALES

Bunkertor wrote:What makes you think so ? I´m in soccer mode right now.

The dynamics are really strong, even if the shear isn't huge it can be overcome.

*Soccer mode off *

Far NE MO, SE IA, and W IL seeing widespread wind damage right now, per the NWS office in the Quad Cities.

IMO, this calls for the tropical Extreme Wind Warning (fake Tornado Warning) product.

WWUS53 KIWX 240011
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
811 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

INC091-099-141-149-MIC021-027-240045-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-100624T0045Z/
STARKE IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-LA PORTE IN-MARSHALL IN-BERRIEN MI-CASS MI-
811 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM
EDT/745 PM CDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES IN
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND LA PORTE AND NORTHERN STARKE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND CASS AND BERRIEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN...

AT 807 PM EDT/707 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. THESE SEVERE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRIDGMAN TO 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TRAIL CREEK TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WANATAH...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...
BERRIEN SPRINGS...WATERVLIET AND PAW PAW LAKE...
BUCHANAN...
DOWAGIAC...KNOX AND HAMLET...
GEORGETOWN...WALKERTON AND SOUTH BEND...
CASSOPOLIS AND MISHAWAKA...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
EAU CLAIRE...DAYTON...TRACY...STILLWELL...HUDSON LAKE...BREMS...
TOTO...INDIAN LAKE...SOUTH CENTER AND SALEM HEIGHTS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
90 MPH...ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT THURSDAY
MORNING/MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY MORNING/ FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4225 8622 4208 8622 4208 8577 4204 8577
4177 8602 4176 8607 4167 8612 4127 8663
4125 8666 4126 8694 4172 8695 4190 8663
4213 8650 4225 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 278DEG 42KT 4195 8645 4165 8673
4140 8688
WIND...HAIL 100MPH <.50IN

$$


JC




785

WUUS53 KIWX 240028
SVRIWX
INC039-085-087-099-141-149-MIC027-149-240130-
/O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0080.100624T0028Z-100624T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
828 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
NORTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
ELKHART COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
EASTERN STARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT/830 PM CDT/

* AT 824 PM EDT/724 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF DOWAGIAC
TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTH LIBERTY TO 11 MILES WEST OF KNOX...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...
DOWAGIAC...GEORGETOWN AND WALKERTON...
MISHAWAKA...LAKEVILLE AND GULIVOIRE PARK...
OSCEOLA AND CULVER...
SIMONTON LAKE...PLYMOUTH AND ELKHART...
WAKARUSA...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE BARRON
LAKE...GROVERTOWN...INDIAN VILLAGE...BASS LAKE...WINONA...LA
GRANGE...DAILEY...TYNER...TEEGARDEN...DONALDSON...OBER AND PENN.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90
MPH...ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT THURSDAY
MORNING/MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY MORNING/ FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4204 8532 4161 8557 4153 8567 4119 8587
4121 8677 4166 8629 4202 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 271DEG 47KT 4196 8623 4162 8642
4129 8676
WIND...HAIL 90MPH <.50IN

$$

what do you think the threat of significant severe weather for western NY is