STORM2K

November 15, 2010
this Pre-Dawn Monday morning
240 AM CST


Hey Gang ~~ A pre-dawn, early Morning update for New Orleans on the weather for today on Monday:


From overnight data from the 00Z November 15th multi-model suite I use, it *NOW* looks like the BETTER chunk and BIGGER, heftier chunk of rainfall for NEW ORLEANS, proper, will come about 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule.


This means I think the HIGHEST, HEAVIER rainfall-rate amounts will come between about 12 Noon & 9 PM for the New Orleans area. It will still rain in the morning hours, though, just not quite as much in the morning, as in the afternoon & evening. Much more in the afternoon hours of Monday, Nov. 15th, and carrying-on thru the early nighttime hours as well.


It still looks like the Northshore parishes, especially parts of St. Tammany parish will get hit with the higher rainfall totals. New Orleans looks to run 2nd place, behind the Northshore parishes, w.r.t. the higher rainfall totals.


Model rainfall averages have come UPward since the last model run. The multi-model average now is for 1.46" of rainfall projected for the metro New Orleans area; (taking a blend of the 3 airports: Belle Chasse, New Orleans International, and New Orleans Lakefront Airports)




-- cyclogenesis

Rainfall totals in New Orleans from Monday & Monday night rainfall:


#1.) Belle Chasse NAS -- 0.77"
#2.) New Orleans Int'l Airport -- 0.88"
#3.) New Orleans Lakefront Airport -- 0.80"


A last look at Doppler rainfall totals showed a wide swath of 0.60" to 1.00" of rainfall totals in and around the New Orleans Metro southshore parishes. Portions of the Westbank, Marrero & Gretna/Terrytown, had some of the higher totals in the city, nearing the 1 inch mark.


We, in New Orleans, were sandwiched in-between HIGHER rainfall amounts to our North, in the northshore parishes, where there were 1 - 2" totals, and higher amounts to our South, exceeding 2" near the Gulf coast .


Those of you on my mailer list, see the attachments on the model inter-comparison study I included in the e-mails I gave you.


You can observe to see which models are performing well and which ones are performing poorly. In addition, I included a bonus extra -- Model Biases, which is also a Microsoft Excel worksheet.


Thanks to Earl Barker's help, I was able to fill-in the missing holes of the JMA model in my data that was missing from the 00Z, Nov. 14th model suite. He e-mailed me map images from the JMA missing cycle run. That only applies to the 48 - 72 hour bar graphs, for which I didn't enclose with that e-mail, though.




-- cyclogenesis