STORM2K

Well.. it looks like parts of Florida could be in for a very wet Labor Day Week-End. Even if a Wave near the DR doesn't develope , this week-end could be very interesting for Florida. The Melbourne ,FL AFD gives a great discussion on the potential for this:):)

FXUS62 KMLB 261923
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

...POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN SETTING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND...

.THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE A WWD
PROGRESSION THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY
MAINLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. INFLUENCE OF
RIDGE INVOF AREA WILL REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT WITH
DEEPER LAYER OF DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LIMITED COASTAL ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE TO
MARTIN AND ST LUCIE CO'S EARLY WED AS GRADIENT FLOW ELSEWHERE WILL
REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MARINE SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.

WED-FRI...DLM RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN ATLC AND EXTENDING INTO
NORTH FL THROUGH THU AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE NERN CONUS. THE H50 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTH
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PULL THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE NWD AS WELL...RESULTING
IN FRESHENING EASTERLIES AND OVERALL SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE PRECIP
REGIME FOR ECFL. BY FRI...PGRAD WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO WHERE
COASTAL AREAS WILL APPROACH BREEZY CONDS...BUT COVERAGE STILL ON THE
LOW SIDE EARLY ON.

THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE A T-WAVE OVER
THE NE CARIB/GREATER ANTILLES APPROACHES THE STATE. THE GFS' QUICK
CLOSED LOW SPINUP OVER THE BAHAMAS...ALTHOUGH PSBL...SEEMS THE LEAST
LIKELY OF THE SOLNS SEEN GIVEN IT'S SHEARED/ELONGATED APPEARANCE ON
VIS IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE GFS BIAS...AND IT'S LACK OF CONTINUITY
WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
THE AMPLITUDE/NWD EXTENT OF THE WAVE APPARENT IN VSBL IMAGERY...
IT'S EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING I'VE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY (PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
THE FRI NIGHT) AND WILL TREND FRI GRIDS TWD INCRSG CLDS/POPS LATE.

SAT-TUE...LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE...MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN ERODING/BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG ERN/SERN
CONUS AND WRN ATLC H50 RIDGE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE THE
ERN CONUS AND COOL CNDN HIGH PRES PUSHES FRONTAL BDRY INTO THE SERN
CONUS. BDRY WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OUT W-E OR WSW-ENE AND STALL TUE
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE RESULTANT COLLAPSE OF THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BETWEEN 80W AND 90W WILL BE PROBLEMATIC W/R/T THE
POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE E CARIB T-WAVE ON FL.

WHAT IS TROUBLING HERE IS THAT MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE (SAVE FOR THE
ECM) SHOWS LOW PRES IN THE NE GOMEX MON/TUE...A FUNCTION OF EITHER
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR THE STALLED FRONT/REMNANTS...THE T-WAVE ITSELF
...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. WITH THE MEAN LAYER FLOW COLLAPSING
TO THE NORTH...THIS FEATURE (IN WHATEVER FORM) IS LIKELY TO WIND UP
MOVING BY (OR OVER) THE STATE VERY SLOWLY...AND THE WORST (GFS) CASE
WOULD HAVE IT STALL OVER THE ERN GOMEX/FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HENCE...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MID WEEK. OBVIOUSLY
THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON WHAT THE FEATURE DOES...BUT IF THE OVERALL
CONTINUITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SUITE HOLDS THEN FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...PREVIOUS RUN OF WAVE WATCH III INDICATED 10 FT SEAS BY
FRIDAY. WITH A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROGGED BY THE GFS...LATEST RUN OF
THE WAVE WATCH ONLY BRINGS THEM UP TO 5 FT. WILL TREND SEAS IN THAT
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLIMO 2-3 FT
COMBINED SEAS.

...PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 074/087 073/087 075 121
MCO BB 074/090 074/090 074 232
MLB BB 075/088 075/088 076 121
VRB BB 076/088 076/088 076 121 60

.MLB...NONE.

SHORT-TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG-TERM...CRISTALDI

$$

Very interesting. There has been a lull in those areas that have been having flooding problems across west-central Florida. Not so good for areas south of Orlando. It sure will be fun tracking and discussing this developing situation.

Here are the latest Area Forecast discussions from the Melbourne, Florida and Ruskin (Tampa Bay), Florida, respectively:


EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

FEW SHRA MOVING ONSHORE BTWN VERO AND STUART UNDER SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. SHRA COVERAGE A BIT LESS AS YOU GO NORTH DUE TO DRIER AIR.
TRAJECTORY IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST TO THE N AS WELL.

TODAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN ACROSS N FL AND THE ADJOINING
COASTAL WATERS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT WILL BE QUICK AGAIN
TODAY WITH COASTAL SHRA BECOMING INLAND THUNDER BY THIS AFTN. EXPECT
ANY BREEZE COLLISION TO OCCUR WEST OF FCST AREA. QUICK SEA BREEZE
ONSET AND DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS SUGGEST CURRENT BLO CLIMO POPS
SHOULD BE GOOD.

THU...A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WILL CIRCULATE
AROUND THE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH POPS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...20 ALONG THE COAST AND 30 INLAND IN
ONSHORE FLOW.

FRI...STILL SOME VARIABILITY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL WAVE. WITH RIDGE TO THE NORTH...A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE STATE SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LATEST RUN OF
THE MM5 SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE
DURING THE DAY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. YESTERDAYS SREF (ETA AND RSM) SHOWED A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE MEMBERS NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF THE NOGAPS INDICATES A MUCH SLOWER
SOLUTION...TAKING AN IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND
INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRAPED
FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK TO TEXAS. FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL WAVE NORTHWARD. WITH THE FRONT
SLIDING EAST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH POPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 FT BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.

...PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 088/074 088/075 087 21223
MCO BB 090/074 090/074 090 32323
MLB BB 088/076 088/076 088 21225
VRB BE 088/076 088/076 088 21225

.MLB...NONE.

$$

SHORT-TERM...BLOTTMAN
LONG-TERM...HIRSCH


WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
208 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

.CURRENT/SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO
NORTH FLORIDA KEEPING WINDS SOUTHEAST/EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEST COAST SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSH THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
ACROSS THE STATE...CAUSING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...COMPUTER PROBLEMS BEGINNING TO BE RESOLVED AT
NCEP...BUT STILL LITTLE IF ANY NEW DATA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR EACH DAY WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY BE LOWER POPS IN SUBSIDENCE
ZONE AHEAD OF WAVES WITH HIGHER POPS BEHIND THEM...BUT TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.MARINE...WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR THE SOUTHERN GROUPINGS. THIS
IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE PACKAGE AND WILL KEEP IT BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA.

.CCFTBW
TPA 090/074 091/075 4240
FMY 090/074 091/074 4240
GIF 091/073 091/073 4240
SRQ 089/074 091/074 4240
BKV 090/072 091/072 4240

.TBW...NONE.

JC/RR/PRC

Looks like a lot of places in the east will be wet this weekend. Local forecasters in my area are saying a chance of showers/storms for Saturday through Monday (and maybe Tuesday also).