STORM2K

HORRIBLE tornado outbreaks including direct hits to some cities such as Raleigh, Tuscaloosa and Joplin. Heck even a tornado severely damaged parts of Springfield, MA and a small EF0 hit Phildadelphia. Yes, Spring is the busiest time for tornadoes - May being the busiest. Perhaps the names of "Joplin", Tuscaloosa" have made us more aware of what the weather is like in the Spring.

NOW heat wave upon heat wave. The latest is a heat dome that has affected 40 states at one time. The East Coast is looking at 100 degree temps tomorrow, though they came close to it today. It's not that we haven't had heat waves in the middle of July with temperatures this hot, but the frequency and how early the first 90 heat wave started in Philadelphia - around Memorial Day. Another one soon followed in June.

I remember always having heatwaves growing up, but there would be WEEKS inbetween successive 90+ degree days. Yes, I lived further north in New York, but they've been feeling the same heat we've been feeling in Philadelphia.

What on earth will the rest of 2011 bring?

Major hurricanes? A record fall tornado season? Who knows!

There is no real correlation in history between tornado fatalities and what hurricane season shows. 1925, the year of the Tri-State Tornado, was a quiet hurricane season. 1933, also a very deadly year, was one of the most active on record.

One thing to note: ONE MORE major tornado outbreak with even a moderately high death toll would put 2011 in second place for the deadliest tornado year on record. Although there has never been an outbreak with a triple-digit death toll after June 30, it is certainly not impossible.

Stephanie wrote:What on earth will the rest of 2011 bring?

Probably hell on earth if the last 7 months are anything to go on. 2005 is the only other year that can compare to what is happening across the globe in my view. Just this week 2 metres of snow completely buried entire communities in Chile (how did that happen anyways?) and the country is calling it a "catastrophe". Tons of forest fires are burning up the northern part of Ontario that make up the size of Nova Scotia I heard on the news, displacing thousands of First Nations people. And I could go on...

I did a correlation of annual and spring (March to May) tornado with hurricanes. This is from 1950 to 2010.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

Here is what I found interesting.

Annual Tornado Total
Named Storms
r = 0.34
p = 0.01

Hurricanes
r = 0.13
p = 0.33

Major Hurricanes
r = 0.02
p = 0.87

Total US Landfall
r = 0.32
p = 0.01

Major Landfall
r = 0.17
p = 0.19

The more the annual tornadoes there are, the more likely we are going to see named storms making landfall.

March to May Tornado Total
Named Storms
r = 0.23
p = 0.08

Hurricanes
r = 0.02
p = 0.91

Major Hurricanes
r = -0.01
p = 0.95

Total US Landfall
r = 0.28
p = 0.03

Major Landfall
r = 0.00
p = 0.98

The more the spring tornadoes there are, the more likely we are going to see named storms making landfall. However, major landfalls can go either way, regardless of how many annual and spring tornadoes there are.

Ptarmigan wrote:I did a correlation of annual and spring (March to May) tornado with hurricanes. This is from 1950 to 2010.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

Here is what I found interesting.

Annual Tornado Total
Named Storms
r = 0.34
p = 0.01

Hurricanes
r = 0.13
p = 0.33

Major Hurricanes
r = 0.02
p = 0.87

Total US Landfall
r = 0.32
p = 0.01

Major Landfall
r = 0.17
p = 0.19

The more the annual tornadoes there are, the more likely we are going to see named storms making landfall.

March to May Tornado Total
Named Storms
r = 0.23
p = 0.08

Hurricanes
r = 0.02
p = 0.91

Major Hurricanes
r = -0.01
p = 0.95

Total US Landfall
r = 0.28
p = 0.03

Major Landfall
r = 0.00
p = 0.98

The more the spring tornadoes there are, the more likely we are going to see named storms making landfall. However, major landfalls can go either way, regardless of how many annual and spring tornadoes there are.

There's certainly something to your correlation calcs above. It's not very strong, so there's other things that would make up that mix.

2011: The Year of the Twister

I'd expect more of this until the pic that's my avatar happens

HurricaneBill wrote:2011: The Year of the Twister

It certainly has been!

Stephanie wrote:

HurricaneBill wrote:2011: The Year of the Twister

It certainly has been!

Will the tropics add some more to the mix? Even if we don't get intense landfalling hurricanes, they can still produce tornadoes. Also will we see a nasty fall season?

The only good thing is we haven't had a killer tornado since June 1, and only one real outbreak (June 20) that was mostly in rural plains (thankfully, in comparison to every other outbreak it seems before then).

But it still could have been worse! April 22's EF4 in St. Louis mercifully had no fatalities (it could have killed dozens easily), and April 9-10 in the Upper Midwest also had no fatalities despite numerous intense tornadoes.

Yes, thankfully there have been quite a few tornado outbreaks that have been further away from large populations.

Stephanie wrote:

Ptarmigan wrote:I did a correlation of annual and spring (March to May) tornado with hurricanes. This is from 1950 to 2010.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

Here is what I found interesting.

Annual Tornado Total
Named Storms
r = 0.34
p = 0.01

Hurricanes
r = 0.13
p = 0.33

Major Hurricanes
r = 0.02
p = 0.87

Total US Landfall
r = 0.32
p = 0.01

Major Landfall
r = 0.17
p = 0.19

The more the annual tornadoes there are, the more likely we are going to see named storms making landfall.

March to May Tornado Total
Named Storms
r = 0.23
p = 0.08

Hurricanes
r = 0.02
p = 0.91

Major Hurricanes
r = -0.01
p = 0.95

Total US Landfall
r = 0.28
p = 0.03

Major Landfall
r = 0.00
p = 0.98

The more the spring tornadoes there are, the more likely we are going to see named storms making landfall. However, major landfalls can go either way, regardless of how many annual and spring tornadoes there are.

There's certainly something to your correlation calcs above. It's not very strong, so there's other things that would make up that mix.

Check the stats against what the years were for the tropics (El Nino, La Nina, Neutral). I bet that is most of the other factors, because those tend to control the number of storms that form that COULD make landfall.

I don't know what's worse, all the twisters this year or the lack of rainfall or the flooding that is still going on

angelwing wrote:I don't know what's worse, all the twisters this year or the lack of rainfall or the flooding that is still going on

Yes, take your pick. Twisters are a hit and run. Flooding can be due to an accumulation of days or all at once. Droughts are insidious. You don't know when you're in one until it's too late and NOTHING tells you when it will end, except for a tropical system. Then see flooding....