STORM2K

Well if some of the models are correct places in the Plains from KS/MO south to the TX/LA gulf coast may be going from very dry to very wet in a hurry in the next couple of days into next week or so!..........................The way it appears is that the coldfront now comming down into the northern plains will stall as it gets into KS/MO/OK causing a good chance for storms with a good risk for training storms and as well will increase the flood threat!.....................And during this time as seen in our tropical forum some of the models are picking up on a possible tropical system that may develop in the gulf headed for the TX/LA coast which may as well bring up more moisture into the southern plains adding more possible problems for this area!.......................As seen below is the ETA model which is spitting out amounts of up to 7 inches or so in KS/OK/TX and this is for 60hrs ending at 84 hrs!.............This does not take into account the other models such as the ECMWF/GFS and events to come after 84 hrs such as the possible tropical development in the Gulf!.........................BTW the GFS has the heaviest area of precip slightly NE of the ETA up into Northern KS and Northern MO!

Those precip rates are impressive - if we had that forecast for the UK everything would come to a standstill. Not only that, no one would believe it!!! Looks like you are in for some interesting weather!!!

Topeka finally got rain.

We finally did too! 1.02 since this morning at 1:00 A.M. Not really HEAVY rain but was moderate at times. I am glad we broke the dry streak, but it still left 11 days without precipitation.

I worked today and from what I see is that the Cold front will stall over OK as a Low Level Jet reforms to the south of the front. This will then set up an overrunning scenerio (warm air into a cooler airmass. Which will produce strataform conditions and LOTS OF PRECIP!

Matter of fact I worked today from 5am till 11am and I have to be back at work at midnight due to a 2" in 12 hrs precip warning (for verification)

So get ready the rain has not even started yet!

Aaron

All heavy rain will be South of Topeka.

Looks like we'll get quite a substantial amount,
but, the heaviest will be just to the west. I'm
thinking about Garrett in MO, gone to a
bluegrass festival - hope he took his snorkel
and flippers along! :o

Hey Breeze. Thanks for thinking about me! It was a rainy weekend, but the big problems were here in Monett. Almost 4.3" since Saturday. Eek! :o

What kind of problems did you have Garrett? :? (besides the drought going bye bye)

Well... while we were gone our pool overflowed, the creek south of town flooded, and my front yard looks similar to Lake Michigan (LOL... just kidding)!

LOL!!!! That was hillarious...

Luckily all the rain we get is USUALLY sucked up by the sand dunes in my back yard, so our neighborhood rarely floods. Now when we get heavy prolonged rain, then the Kankakee has a danger of overflowing...if that happens then our towns manholes get filled and then we are in big trouble. Last flood I remember over here was in '96. It didn't damage our houses but their was a foot and a half of water everywhere, and a little deeper in town.

We got over 8 inches of much-needed rain from Thurs., August 28th until Sun., Aug. 31st. Sure it ruined the long weekend but we go rain, which we so desperately needed.

Kristi

We already got the rain here.