STORM2K

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:01 am**

SPC AC 010652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS
MS...AL...TN...KY...INDIANA...OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ARKLAMISS REGION
ENEWD TO CAROLINAS AND NWD TO SWRN PA...INDIANA AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT. RESULT THROUGH DAY-1 WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF WRN CONUS...MOVING EWD TO CENTRAL CONUS DAY-2. BY
START OF PERIOD...EXPECT NRN-STREAM MID-UPPER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER
ND/MB BORDER REGION...AND BASAL 500-MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
4-CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT PERTURBATION...LOWER-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS KS. VORTICITY
FIELDS WITH LATTER TWO SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL-CONNECTED...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM ERN IA/NRN IL
REGION TO ERN NM BY 3/00Z. BY 3/12Z...EXPECT MID-UPPER LOW OVER LH
OR ADJOINING PORTIONS ONT...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER LOWEST SEGMENT OF
OH RIVER...OK...AND SRN NM.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW IMPINGING ON SWRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY/NRN
LA SHOULD MOVE BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS PERIOD...WRN PORTION OF
WHICH WILL ATTACH WITH SFC FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER MO BY 2/12Z. LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN LOWER MI BY 3/00Z...THEN
OCCLUDE AND BECOME STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX BY END OF PERIOD.
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH PERIOD. COLD FRONT TRAILING SFC LOW SHOULD
START PERIOD OVER OZARKS...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY
3/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN INDIANA/WRN OH...SERN AR...AND
MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. BY 3/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN GA...AND SRN AL.

...OZARKS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AND AL TO OH VALLEY STATES...
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY BE CARRY OVER FROM LATE
DAY-1 PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OZARKS...LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
REGIONS...WITH FAVORABLE CAPE ALOFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR HAIL.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC-BASED BY
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SVR. OTHER SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING...COVERING LONG SWATHS WITH
THEIR SVR THREATS OVER ANY GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN
TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.

...CAROLINAS...
INITIALLY SEPARATE SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY CONNECT WITH ERN FRINGES OF LARGER SVR
AREA LATE IN PERIOD AS LATTER REGIME SHIFTS EWD. SRN BRANCH OF STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM RESIDE IN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...AND THEREFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING...PRESENCE OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE...AND
WEAK MLCINH SHOULD PERMIT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP IN REGIME OF 60S F WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS. ACCORDINGLY
ADJUSTED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE
POSSIBLE...JUXTAPOSED WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MAIN THREAT MAY BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED HAIL ALSO EXPECTED.
FCST HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK...MAIN
QUESTIONS BEING COVERAGE/DURATION OF FAVORABLE STORM MODES.

..EDWARDS.. 03/01/2012

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:32 am**

Adding insult to injury. And this could be worse!

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:04 am**

Accuweather is going overboard, saying this could be similar to the 1974 Super Outbreak (in early March???)

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:55 am**

This maybe a long day today for some folks. Stay safe you all.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 12:33 pm**

SPC AC 011730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY LARGE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A BELT OF VERY
STRONG SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. ON THE SERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CROSSING THE OZARKS REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD...DEEPENING WITH TIME INTO
A SUB-990 MB LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE ERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS NEWD
WITH TIME...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NEWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE.
MEANWHILE A STRONG/ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY...AND
SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD ALONG/JUST E
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING/INCREASING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEY REGION...NEAR AND
N OF A RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT DEMARCATING THE NRN EDGE OF A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADING NWD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW.

WHILE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL POTENTIAL WITH
THE STRONGER/ROTATING CELLS -- WILL SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME AS THE
WARM FRONT RETREATS...CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NWD ADVANCE OF WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR WILL PROVIDE A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.

AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES S OF THE ONGOING/ELEVATED
STORMS...MIXED-LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE COMBINED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON A ZONE FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD
ACROSS KY AND TN INTO PARTS OF MS AND NRN AL...WHERE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS ALONG
WITH SHEAR PROFILES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.

WITH STORM MODE LIKELY TO BECOME A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND COMPLEX
LINE SEGMENTS...THREATS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES APPEARS EVIDENT...ACCOMPANYING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LARGE
HAIL. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

OVERNIGHT...SLOW/WEAK STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- SHIFTING EWD TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY
ACROSS...THE APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NC AND VICINITY...
THOUGH GENERALLY WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE RETREATING
SURFACE WARM FRONT COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NC AND VICINITY. WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 03/01/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1731Z (12:31PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 12:47 pm**

Anybody looking for them to go High?

One thing is that this may happen in the afternoon and evening instead of overnight. That's both good and bad. Less chance of people getting caught sleeping, but more people will be out and about which could make it worse if business areas get hit hard.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 12:55 pm**

Updated graphic.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:28 pm**

Here is a link to that Accuwx comparison between Friday's potential outbreak and the 74 Super Outbreak:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ar-t/62259

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 5:40 pm**

Looks like the 2012 National Severe Weather Workshop is going to have lots of real time data to work with. I must say though i do have a problem with they way Accuweather is hyping things for tommorow, Does anyone here see an outbreak of that magnitude being a reasonable comparison for fridays outbreak?
Mark

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:06 pm**

rockyman wrote:Here is a link to that Accuwx comparison between Friday's potential outbreak and the 74 Super Outbreak:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ar-t/62259

What? Accuweather over hyping an event? NEVER!

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:13 pm**

This is from the Tennessee NWS latest update about this comming event for that state.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
445 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
445 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR FRIDAY...
...MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...
...SUPERCELLUAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY GENERATE
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ITS HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT THERE IS A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES. KEEP IN MIND...OUR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURE IS IN THE 30S. AS THIS WARM FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL COME FLOODING BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES...WAY ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THUS...BY TOMORROW...ALL THE INGREDIENTS...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE TOMORROW
WITH THE BEST TIME FROM HIGH NOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SURE THAT THEY HAVE A RELIABLE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION TOMORROW. EVERYONE SHOULD KNOW WHAT THEY NEED
TO DO AND WHERE THEY WILL GO IN THE EVENT A SEVERE STORM MOVES
INTO YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD. AS ALWAYS...NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR
LOCAL MEDIA ARE YOUR BEST SOURCE OF INFORMATION.

$$

JLM

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:14 pm**

NWS Nashville is going all in on this, that is for sure. Extremely dangerous potential.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:12 pm**

I have a sick feeling about this...right now I am trying to spread the word to get everyone prepared.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:20 pm**

Anyone within in this bull's eye - be safe! Hopefully it will be a non-issue, but I don't think so.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:28 pm**

VERY strongly worded from NWS Nashville.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

DISCUSSION...A BIG SEVERE WX OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR MID TN
FRIDAY. STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES TO POST A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE MID STATE. THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE SEVERE THREAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES SINCE
APRIL 27, 2011. THIS EVENT COULD BE ONE OF THE GREATER IMPACT
EVENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE STRONGLY ADVISED
TO TAKE THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MID TN LATE IN THE
NIGHT...AND SOME MAY PRODUCE HAIL. A FEW REPORTS OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS A 40-50KT LLJ HELPS
DESTABILIZE THE MID LAYER.

ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS WILL FALL AS A BROAD DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NW MID TN BY 00Z
SAT. WE EXPECT EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT. THEN PARTLY SUNNY...WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S
AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S. THE BNA RECORD FOR MARCH 2ND IS 80 FROM
1951. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND INSTABILITY. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS COULD BEGIN BY
NOON...AND WHEN STORMS GET GOING...RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL
OCCUR. THE EXPECTED TIMES OF HIGHEST IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER ARE
NOON TO 4 PM NEAR THE TN RIVER...2 PM TO 6 PM FOR BNA AND THE I 65
CORRIDOR...AND 3 PM TO 8 PM ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER
THE EAST HALF...BUT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING WELL EAST OF
OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

COOLER WX IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. DISTURBANCES AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN AS HEIGHTS RISE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY FAIR
WX MUCH OR PERHAPS ALL WEEK.

13

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:39 pm**

High risk at 0600Z?

I would personally hold off for now. Stick with a strongly worded MDT with 15H tornado and 45H wind. There is one question mark - if there is morning activity, it could hold down the instability. But if that question is answered, then go ahead at 1300Z.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:49 pm**

Apart from the small towns in the whole area,very populated cities are also in the risk area. My prayers go to them.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:13 pm**

One potential wildcard in all this is if there is significant convection early in the day in the maximum threat area. That would zap instability and reduce the threat (think April 10, 2008 - was hyped as a massive outbreak but didn't occur due to such)

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:15 pm**

I hope your right Crazy about this one being overhyped but sitting here inside the northern side of that bullesye I'm not sure. This one has me concerned. Have the word out to everyone in this area so now we wait and watch.

Posted: **Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:20 pm**

Another dangerous and life threatening day tomorrow. I hope everyone is aware.

STORM2K

Big Tornado Outbreak March 2-3

Big Tornado Outbreak March 2-3

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Re: Moderate Risk, March 2

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