STORM2K

Let's start our discussions on Texas spring weather for 2012 right here.

I for one am most curious about this coming week and the potential for significant rainfall. Who'd have thought some areas might be entirely erasing their droughts. Wow.

Me too Porta. I hope Texas gets a good old fashioned Spring soaker. Just spread some weed killer and turf builder on the yard so some good rain is needed.

I would not be surprised to see some sort of flood/flash watches go up somewhere in Texas later in the week. Convective training looks very possible as long as the low sits and spins. The gulf is wide open with strong high pressure to the east bringing in a constant moist flow. FW has a pretty good handle of it in this afternoon's discussion. Applies to much of Texas along and east of I-35. Do your planting now!

FOR THIS FORECAST...THE NEW ECMWF HAS COME AROUND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE MORNING GFS....THUS WE/VE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC COMBO AS
GUIDANCE FOR MASS FIELDS AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL SWING DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE OFF. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ORPHANS THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL SPIN AND WOBBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPPED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND LOW CAPE
VALUES WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THURSDAY MIDDAY
AT THE EARLIEST...THEN SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS (ELEVATED AND
NON-SEVERE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SHOWERS/RAIN CONTINUES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT
BEST...WHEREAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BULK SHEAR WILL PEAK 45 TO 55
KNOTS AND CAPE WILL MAX OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG. THUS...SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND REACH TO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING THE
FRONT TO NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY MONDAY...THEN FORM AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH BY SATURDAY THAT UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS LATE IN
THE DAY AND LIFTS OUT NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PROCESS
SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN GOING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
TEXAS.

HGX

DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOUR BET IS ON WILL DETERMINE THE QPF
(AMOUNT AND LOCATION) BUT THE ODDS ARE HIGH THAT OVER 50 PERCENT
OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL. SIMPLY
ADDING UP THE NWP QPF HAS RANGES BETWEEN 4 TO 6 INCHES AND...IF
THE UPPER LOW DOES MEANDER OFF TO THE WEST (OR RETROGRADES W-SW
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AS THE CANADIAN IS SUGGESTING)...THEN
EXPERIENCE STATES THAT YOU COULD EASILY DOUBLE THESE NUMBERS FOR
THE LOCALLY HIGHEST (OVERALL EVENT) AMOUNTS. THERE IS A SLEW OF
SITUATIONS AT ALL LEVELS...FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HANGING
UP STATIONARY TO OUR WEST FRIDAY TO SATURDAY`S IMPRESSIVE 25H
DIVERGENCE...THAT WILL LEAD TO THE SOLE OUTCOME OF FLOOD-PRODUCING
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. EACH NUMERICAL SOLUTION DISPLAYS HIGH MOISTURE
(IN THE NEAR-99% PERCENTILE FOR THE SEASON) AS REGIONAL PWATS
EXCEED 1.6 INCHES...IN TANDEM WITH A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROF AXIS/UPPER LOW AND TRAVELING ON THROUGH
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERN STEERING FLOW. SPECIFICS WILL COME THE CLOSER
WE GET TO THURSDAY BUT...IN THE MEANTIME...THE BROAD PICTURE IS
ONE OF A LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THE MAIN THREAT BEING FROM HIGH RAINFALL. THE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MINIMUMS (60S) AND...WITH A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE PER RAIN AND
OVERCAST...NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS (LOW 70S).

Portastorm wrote:Let's start our discussions on Texas spring weather for 2012 right here.

I for one am most curious about this coming week and the potential for significant rainfall. Who'd have thought some areas might be entirely erasing their droughts. Wow.

Not to be a debby downer, but we are far from getting rid of the drought, at least long term. If you include the last 2 years, then many areas are still way below normal and have a long way to go(20"-30"+) to wipe out the deficit for the last two years or since Ike(when this all really started). In the short term look at the drought(ie last 12 months and catch up)we are in great shape compared to last year and have almost wiped out the drought in some areas. I still want significant rainfall since we are still behind in most areas of our county(Harris), but we sure don't need the possible flooding I have seen in some posts here and elsewhere. Hopefully the rains will be beneficial and not wash away the fertilizer I plan to put down tomorrow to hopefully revive my yard as opposed to replacing it after last year.

Here is my take on this upcoming storm system:
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... is-weekend

vbhoutex wrote:

Portastorm wrote:Let's start our discussions on Texas spring weather for 2012 right here.

I for one am most curious about this coming week and the potential for significant rainfall. Who'd have thought some areas might be entirely erasing their droughts. Wow.

Not to be a debby downer, but we are far from getting rid of the drought, at least long term. If you include the last 2 years, then many areas are still way below normal and have a long way to go(20"-30"+) to wipe out the deficit for the last two years or since Ike(when this all really started). In the short term look at the drought(ie last 12 months and catch up)we are in great shape compared to last year and have almost wiped out the drought in some areas. I still want significant rainfall since we are still behind in most areas of our county(Harris), but we sure don't need the possible flooding I have seen in some posts here and elsewhere. Hopefully the rains will be beneficial and not wash away the fertilizer I plan to put down tomorrow to hopefully revive my yard as opposed to replacing it after last year.

Yeah, we are 18-20 inches behind in the Austin area and Central Texas since October 2010. But Lake Travis has risen 5 feet the last few months. Only 50 feet to go until full! Buchanan has risen too. LCRA cut off water to all but a few downstream rice farmers for the first time in its history. I'm hoping this next "event" will keep the "pump primed."

There is a slight risk for tornadoes to form next Thursday. The SPC graphic and discussion is at the 2012 severe season sticky thread.

Bring on the rain!!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 060934
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL PREFERENCES FOR THIS FCST. A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS FOR TODAY
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FOR THURSDAY
THRU MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER.

THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WAS
SPREADING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRATUS WAS
ALSO FORMING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS WIND. THE VAD WIND
PROFILES AT KDRT SHOW 35 KTS AT 2K FT...AT KGRK 25 KTS AT 1K FT AND
AT KEWX 15 KTS AT 1K FT. DOWNWARD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY MAKING
FOR A BREEZY AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT THE
MIXING EFFICIENCY...SO WILL FCST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS IS JUST BELOW OUR LOCAL WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. STRONG WAA TODAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE 70S IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED
STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA. THE 06Z NAM ALONG WITH THE 00Z HIRES NMM AND ARM
GENERATE LOW QPF FOR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FOR THURSDAY THRU MONDAY IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THIS MORNING. WE STILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN OVER THE
GFS. THE PREFERRED MODELS PINCH OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...KICKING OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWFA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER
THE FROPA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER
ARIZONA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE CUT-OFF
LOW KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER
TEXAS WITH A VORT LOBE MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

I like this thread better than that "Texas Winter Weather" thread. Spring has a warmer sound to it. Pretty soon we'll need a "Hot Texas Summer" thread.

I see the models are still disagreeing on the details of this weekend's rain event across Texas. Looks like multiple rounds of storms from Friday into Sunday across central and eastern TX. While I don't mind the occasional heavy rain event, I'd like to suggest that these storms plan their arrival a bit better. How about a Monday-Wednesday rain event next time?

March living up to its name as being the windiest month of the year for the Rio Grande Valley..

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
848 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

.BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...PRODUCING STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

TXZ250-251-253>257-070100-
/O.EXT.KBRO.WI.Y.0009.120306T1800Z-120307T0100Z/
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALFURRIAS...SARITA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
848 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* EVENT...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.

* TIMING...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACT...HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT WEIGHT VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO DRIVE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES AND IN CROSS
WINDS. MOVE LIGHT AND MODERATE WEIGHT ITEMS...SUCH AS PATIO
FURNITURE...EMPTY TRASH CANS...AND PORTABLE BASKETBALL
POSTS...INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
30 TO 39 MPH AND OR FREQUENT GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND
57 MPH.

&&

$$

wxman57 wrote:I like this thread better than that "Texas Winter Weather" thread. Spring has a warmer sound to it. Pretty soon we'll need a "Hot Texas Summer" thread.

I see the models are still disagreeing on the details of this weekend's rain event across Texas. Looks like multiple rounds of storms from Friday into Sunday across central and eastern TX. While I don't mind the occasional heavy rain event, I'd like to suggest that these storms plan their arrival a bit better. How about a Monday-Wednesday rain event next time?

Not on your life Wxman57!

After the non-winter of misery we endured on the "Texas Winter" thread, we've all got our vodoo dolls out to make sure that EVERY rainstorm this spring arrives on your days off! (Just kidding of course!)

As per the ongoing drought discussion, the drought is actually over in my portion of North Texas (Sherman/Denison area).

We've had copious amounts of rainfall this fall and winter and all area reservoirs, lakes, ponds, etc. are back to normal.

And if we get the rainfall being forecasted for the next several days, we'll be dealing with flooding issues.

I hope and pray that those of you still in dire need of moisture in central and south Texas get plenty of rain over the next several weeks!

------

http://www.kxii.com/news/headlines/Drou ... 13229.html

SHERMAN, TX -- Nearly all of Texoma is officially out of the drought, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report.

Officials say slightly dry condition is still affecting the extreme northwestern part of our area, from Ada to Davis, to Ringling.

The rest of Texoma has been removed from a drought classification thanks to several heavy rains over the past month.

The Drought Monitor is issued weekly by the U-S Department of Agriculture. To see it, click on the link below.

Today's interpretation of the 5 day total rainfall by the HPC folks. Either way I think SE Texas wins (and since much of north Tx is out of drought runoff will be likely as mentioned by Texas Snowman), because most of the waters in north Texas will drain that way. I'd like to see more rain in West and Central Texas.



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I wonder which models HPC is leaning on for those numbers. Per the 12z guidance, the Canadian looks to promise the most rainfall, Euro second, and GFS the lightest. Of course, the Canadian also keeps the cutoff low out west the longest too. If the Canadian verifies, some of us may be dealing with serious flooding issues.

Portastorm wrote:I wonder which models HPC is leaning on for those numbers. Per the 12z guidance, the Canadian looks to promise the most rainfall, Euro second, and GFS the lightest. Of course, the Canadian also keeps the cutoff low out west the longest too. If the Canadian verifies, some of us may be dealing with serious flooding issues.

Harold Taft used to say that in Texas the last drought ends with the next flood...or something like that.

That map looks great to anyone on the North Texas Municipal water district system. That bull's eye is right over Lake Jim Chapman which is still at only 55% capacity and Lake Lavon is at 80%. So drought still exists for us in Collin County at least in terms of water use, as we are still under stage 3 restrictions since there hasn't been near as much rain to the northeast of DFW. NWS seems to be on the fence about the real heavy rain, so I guess the jury is still out on exactly how hefty the amounts will be. But obviously pulling for the Canadian, if we get that, I may be able to water my yard this summer.

DFW Stormwatcher wrote:That map looks great to anyone on the North Texas Municipal water district system. That bull's eye is right over Lake Jim Chapman which is still at only 55% capacity and Lake Lavon is at 80%. So drought still exists for us in Collin County at least in terms of water use, as we are still under stage 3 restrictions since there hasn't been near as much rain to the northeast of DFW. NWS seems to be on the fence about the real heavy rain, so I guess the jury is still out on exactly how hefty the amounts will be. But obviously pulling for the Canadian, if we get that, I may be able to water my yard this summer.

Amounts for any one location or area won't be as important for drought relief. The key here is this is yet another widespread 2-3+ inches of rain for all of north, east, southeast Texas, that is how you beat drought area wide . Lake rises are often results of upstream rain. Over the years I have found out this to be more vital than say 8 inches at DFW airport vs 1 near a lake/river. The local amounts (where heaviest) just indicates where it's most likely to flood.

There is a slight risk of severe weather pre-frontal. Dynamics do not look too impressive as compared to the flooding potential at this time.



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Very uncertain with regards to the weather conditions by the end of the week to the weekend.....Hopefully trends continue toward a wet solution

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ LONG TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF FUTURE TRACK AND POSITION OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING
TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. BATTLE OF THE SEASONS WOULD SUGGEST A
WEAKER FRONT BUT STRONG FRONTS DO OCCASIONALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE VALLEY IN MARCH. CURRENT THINKING IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLOWS DOWN THE FRONT BY 6 HOURS AND WEAKENS
THE NORTH SURGE. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER AND SOUTHEAST COAST BY NOON FRIDAY AND CAN SURELY BE DELAYED
EVEN MORE WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW BECOMING TEMPORARILY CUT OFF
FARTHER WEST. POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAIN A CHALLENGE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE. CHANCE POPS
WERE BROAD BRUSHED WITH UNCERTAINTY IF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE AND THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ITSELF. ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS.

Good graphic by the Houston NWS about what to expect from Thursday night thru Saturday.



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