Alaska AFD - *REALLY* Long Term Forecast
Posted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:26 pm
923
FXAK68 PAFC 270030
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012
ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS
WE ARE STILL LOCKED INTO A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER LOW
OVER CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEA AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC. A SERIES RIDGES AND TROUGHS CAUGHT WITHIN THIS FLOW CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT NICE WEATHER INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY HAS MOVED OFF
INTO WESTERN CANADA. A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY HAS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A NEW RIDGE HAD JUST MOVED INTO THE BERING.
MODEL DISCUSSION
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT ARE HAVING PROBLEM WITH A NEW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ENTERING THE BERING SEA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
SOUTH CENTRAL
THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN CANADA BY
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA
RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY
WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA
HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND WIND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE BERING BY MONDAY
MORNING THOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD MORE
RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING TUESDAY.
LONG TERM FORECAST
THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND AND BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGES AND TROUGHS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE IN CANADA
THURSDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
EAST SPREADING RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY. IN ABOUT A FEW BILLION YEARS, OUR SUN WILL BECOME A
RED GIANT AND CONSUMER THE OUR PLANET AND THAT WILL BE THE END OF
WEATHER ON EARTH.
AER/ALU
WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 138 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
NM AUG 12
FXAK68 PAFC 270030
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN AUG 26 2012
ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS
WE ARE STILL LOCKED INTO A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER LOW
OVER CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEA AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC. A SERIES RIDGES AND TROUGHS CAUGHT WITHIN THIS FLOW CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT NICE WEATHER INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY HAS MOVED OFF
INTO WESTERN CANADA. A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY HAS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A NEW RIDGE HAD JUST MOVED INTO THE BERING.
MODEL DISCUSSION
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT ARE HAVING PROBLEM WITH A NEW WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
ENTERING THE BERING SEA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
SOUTH CENTRAL
THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN CANADA BY
MONDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA
RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY
WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA
HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND WIND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE BERING BY MONDAY
MORNING THOUGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD MORE
RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN BERING TUESDAY.
LONG TERM FORECAST
THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND AND BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGES AND TROUGHS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE IN CANADA
THURSDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
EAST SPREADING RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY. IN ABOUT A FEW BILLION YEARS, OUR SUN WILL BECOME A
RED GIANT AND CONSUMER THE OUR PLANET AND THAT WILL BE THE END OF
WEATHER ON EARTH.
AER/ALU
WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 138 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
NM AUG 12
