STORM2K

It's way too early to talk about next winter. Now that we're done with any significant cold fronts, it's time for summer to make its appearance. 90s start in earnest across Texas this weekend. Overall, I'm not expecting anything like 2011 this summer. Probably something closer to normal temperature-wise, and only a little below normal precipitation-wise.

Finally, you have your own thread!

I hope your forecast verifies. I'll take a more typical Texas summer as coimpared to the last few.

I need to install a script that automatically posts "It's too hot today" every day from now until October.

somethingfunny wrote:I need to install a script that automatically posts "It's too hot today" every day from now until October.

Amen. Amen....Sigh...

Time to move the posting over to this thread! Meteorological summer is here, yuck! Most analogs and trends so far this spring suggest summer will be milder than the past two (no repeat of 2011 likely) as we are not coming out of La Ninas. Greenery is prevalent in the east and central parts of the state which is better for keeping heat ridges at bay. The Arctic region has been cold and sea ice melt thus far has been slow leading me to believe there will be more intrusions of "less hot" air over NA this year.

The MJO this spring has spent a lot of time in phases 1,2,3, and 4. These are stormy quadrants for NA during the summer time as it enhances not only lower pressures but perhaps tropical moisture coming up from South America as well through monsoons.



In all I'm thinking an average (maybe slightly below to continue the trend in the east) summer for most of us, more heat in the panhandle and west Texas coolest in northeast Texas. The Texas coast needs a good tropical storm this summer especially near Corpus.

I hope for a wet and cooler summer like in 2007.

Amazing how the rain stops as soon as it hits Collin County (where I live) Look at that hole in Northeast Texas! 'The shield is operational captain!
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Again, the Red River is that magical Demarc line where the weather changes. There was a reason the Comanche Indians considered the land north of the Red River prime Buffalo hunting grounds.

Is it going to be another humdrum summer talking about endless capping inversions, wimpy dying tropical storms (Don?) and endless drought hoping an El Nino is going to save the day? Not to mention Northwest-Flow events that always die out before getting to North Texas. (I can talk about 2 of those the last 2 mornings if you want). Lets hope not! At least there's not any heat to talk about yet. By the way, we just entered Stage 3 Drought Designation here in the North Texas Municpal Water District. Yippeee! Yeaaa! Oklahoma: Flooding, Texas: Blowing away, uh, unless you're San Antonio

Latest guidance shows frontal passage (rare in the summer) the next several days. Effects are better to the north and less south with 60s returning for lows, may be close to record territory for some this time of year. Not sold on much rain with the front, more scattered or isolated in nature maybe quarter to half inch. After that the Euro has been showing a heat wave enduring in the southern Rockies and Desert SW, this is where the core of the heat will be and Texas is on the eastern periphery. Suspect mid to upper 90s for many sometime next week before some kind of back-door cool front will effect us again. This is longer range though so nothing set in stone.

Ptarmigan wrote:I hope for a wet and cooler summer like in 2007.

I hope so too! That was the best summer ever!

The complex of storms out west sure looks good. Short guidance has a mesoscale feature coming from them and rolling through north Texas in the morning. If this is true, I'd love to wake up to some thunder and rain in the morning! Along and north of I-20 to the Red River likely will see the most precip from it.

Lots of thunder and lightning here right now, woke me up! The rain has been on and off with it, absolutely love it.

Ntxw wrote:Lots of thunder and lightning here right now, woke me up! The rain has been on and off with it, absolutely love it.

So you enjoyed that MCS, eh? It looked impressive on radar. A thick, solid line of red! Those same storms created quite a ruckus in Lubbock from what I understand. A lot of high winds (80-90 mph) and some street flooding.

Here's to more mesoscale convective systems for all parts of Texas!

Ntxw wrote:Lots of thunder and lightning here right now, woke me up! The rain has been on and off with it, absolutely love it.

Yea, lots of carrying-on with weak lightning and distant thunder at my house also. Kept waiting for the rain for almost 2 hours and then, finally, we got a little downpour for about 15 minutes or so. Looks like we got about .2 inches according to our gauge. I kept waiting for that big juicy rain-band behind that initial roll-cloud and gust-front that normally comes with well-organized convection....., but it never really happened. Normally at night you see the lightning-filled rain-band as that lighter area behind the initial dark roll-cloud with a well-developed thunderstorm. The storms last night at my house seemed weak and disorganized for a long time, but finally got their act together and formed one tight red band on the radar over southern Collin county that raced over my area. Anyway, I'm happy for anything we can get right now, especially since it looks like we'll be cooking under the ridge for a while. Looks like summer is on its way.

Cool pic from the NWS:

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We're in the sort-of inactive area north of Plano. That coincides with what I described in the previous post as most of the action went around us to the north and south and picked up again east of us.

This is in your future Texas:



I want that badly.

Cyclenall wrote:This is in your future Texas:



I want that badly.

Please! Please! Come and take it!! Oh, and by the way, that little island of 70's there in the middle of Colorado....thats where we will be staying the month of July

It will not stay for long...( I am so hoping) and Cyclenall, you can SOO have those 100's

Portastorm wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Lots of thunder and lightning here right now, woke me up! The rain has been on and off with it, absolutely love it.

So you enjoyed that MCS, eh? It looked impressive on radar. A thick, solid line of red! Those same storms created quite a ruckus in Lubbock from what I understand. A lot of high winds (80-90 mph) and some street flooding.

Here's to more mesoscale convective systems for all parts of Texas!

I did Porta and amen to the last sentence! Still quite nice here in mid 70s and light drizzle. Took advantage and went jogging, I will take any of these days in summer.

Another pleasant, warm day in Texas. Looks like an early summer "heatwave" appears more likely next week with first 100s for many. Enjoy the next 24 hours under dry/warm air before the furnace begins its usual ignition.