STORM2K

I think it will be good to open a discussion thread only without posting warnings to have the comments not being lost among those. So post away the comments. Also,photos and videos can be posted but also we have the option to post those on the Sticky 2013 Severe Season (Videos - Photos - Stats - Forecasts) thread . Watches and warnings will only be posted at Severe Weather Outbreak for May 18-19-20 Watches & Warnings thread.Thanks to JonathanBelles for the suggestion.

Rapid Refresh for later today. Very dry-line oriented, something more typical in the western plains type outbreak albeit further east vs the typical jet streak wide-scale outbreak. Upper support isn't great, but enough with a lot of instability for big hail and some tornadoes. If a surface low can form in the panhandles and provide a good focus then we may get a bigger outbreak, if without a low the storms will likely die off as they move further east away from the dry-line and stronger area of cap.

The CAPE is outrageous - large area approaching 7,000 J/kg. The cap is showing signs of weakening in spots, although overall it is pretty solid still.

What do you guys think. When is initiation time ?

The weak ascent offered by the approaching mid-level trough is fanning up some mid-level clouds. The Cap is still relatively strong. Things get better later this afternoon and evening.

Bunkertor wrote:What do you guys think. When is initiation time ?

Maybe any time. First warning is up for SD.

After doing some reading about CAPE I am concerned about some violent tornadoes out of this system. 7,000 J/kg is a impressive CAPE to say the least.

WeatherGuesser wrote:

Bunkertor wrote:What do you guys think. When is initiation time ?

Maybe any time. First warning is up for SD.

That was my first guess. Sky is pretty clear over KS and OK

EF-5bigj wrote:After doing some reading about CAPE I am concerned about some violent tornadoes out of this system. 7,000 J/kg is a impressive CAPE to say the least.

True, but the shear isn't too impressive. Not a classic tornado outbreak setup. That said, it is still possible...

Scratch that. It's SC, not SD. Big difference.

Well I imagine the sheer will be better as the day does on but Sunday is the big day.

Stronger echoes starting to appear around Dodge City and Tulsa.

2 tornado watches are likely to be issued in the next couple hours. Should have HUGE hail numbers and solid but not extreme tornado probs (like 60/40).

This lapse data is from Dodge City.

cycloneye wrote:This lapse data is from Dodge City.

Still some capping there but weakening.

CrazyC83 wrote:2 tornado watches are likely to be issued in the next couple hours.

WW170 in the works. Should be up momentarily. TOR for CO, KS, NE

Cells are trying to blossom now over Kansas. It's still somewhat capped but the instability is so extreme that some are having some success.

WeatherGuesser wrote:Scratch that. It's SC, not SD. Big difference.

No, you was right. One svr County in SD. This one
SVR T-STORM WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 1242 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WW171 coming up; TOR for OK, TX

Probs on the new watch are 50/20.