2014 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[Tireman4]

Well it's really windy and humid were I'm at.

It might help to put your location in your profile....

[EF-5bigj]

Yeah I'll do that.

[cycloneye]

Fri Feb 21 - 9 tornadoes confirmed:
AL - 1 (EF2)
OH - 1 (EF0)
GA - 2 (strongest EF2)
VA - 1 (EF0)
NC - 3 (strongest EF1)
MD - 1 (EF0)

Thur Feb 20 - 31 tornadoes confirmed:
IL - 12 (two rated EF2)
MO - 2 (both EF1)
KY - 2 (both EF0)
MS - 3 (one EF1)
LA - 1 (EF1)
AL - 4 (all EF1)
IN - 2 (one EF1)
TN - 4 (all EF1)
OH - 1 (EF0)

-Dr. Greg Forbes

[Ntxw]

Relatively quiet start to severe weather season. March looks quiet and appears to remain so with lots of low level cold air still influencing. May not be till mid April we see any kind of significant outbreak. Perhaps localized but nothing on large scale appears on the horizon.

[EF-5bigj]

Yeah I don't know when the atmosphere will be ripe for it but April and May as you said sounds about right. We see what Mother Nature does though

[RL3AO]

GFS continues to hint at something around the 22nd, but obviously thats Day 10...

[cycloneye]

This is what Accuweather forecasts for the next few months.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

all they're doing is forecasting climatology.

[cycloneye]

SPC has Eastern Texas thru Louisiana and south part of Alabama as a slight risk for isolated tornadoes for March 15-16.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL TX/ARKLATEX TO
LOWER DELTA REGION AND MS COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED THIS PERIOD BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
BUT PROGRESSIVE RIDGING...MOVING EWD FROM W COAST...AND LARGE
CYCLONIC GYRE COVERING MUCH OF ERN CANADA AND CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. E OF THAT RIDGE--TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY
MID-UPPER INFLUENCES ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY-1...
1. SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER ERN NM...FAR W TX AND CHIHUAHUA. THIS TROUGH WILL LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS EMBEDDED 500-MB VORTICITY MAX/WEAK CIRCULATION EJECTS
ENEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX/EXTREME S-CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z...REACHING
SERN OK/SWRN AR/NE TX BY END OF PERIOD.
2. NRN-STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN
MT...WRN WY AND ERN UT. THIS FEATURE WILL TURN SSEWD ACROSS SRN
ROCKIES AND INTENSIFY CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z...REACHING LOWER-MIDDLE
PECOS VALLEY AND PORTIONS N-CENTRAL MEX.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BROADEN ACROSS SRN
PLAINS AND NRN MEX...WITH HEIGHT FALLS INTENSIFYING AND SHIFTING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND NWRN GULF BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM
MO BOOTHEEL REGION WSWWD ACROSS ERN/SWRN OK...NW TX...BETWEEN
LBB-MAF...AND OVER SERN NM. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WAS EVIDENT FROM
BETWEEN DYS-CDS EWD ACROSS TXK AREA AND SRN AR. BOTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED TODAY AS RETURN FLOW
OCCURS AHEAD OF SEPARATE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...GROWING AREAS OF
CLOUDS...PRECIP AND TSTMS OVER TX AND OK RECONFIGURE BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINICITY CONSIDERABLY ON MESOSCALE.

...SRN PLAINS...MORNING THROUGH EVENING...
MESSY SCENARIO EVIDENT WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING/EARLY-AFTN HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW/N-CENTRAL TX AND MUCH OF OK...OFFERING
MRGL WIND/HAIL RISK. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD FORM THROUGH AFTN OVER
CENTRAL TX AND MOVE/SPREAD ENEWD....THESE HAVING BETTER-ORGANIZED
SVR THREAT. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ALOFT...IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING MID-UPPER TROUGH...BECOMES
INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY ABOVE SFC WILL BE
MANIFEST IN PRECONVECTIVE SFC ENVIRONMENT BY NWD SPREAD OF 60S F SFC
DEW POINTS NOW IN CENTRAL/S TX TOWARD RED RIVER...AND 50S THAT HAVE
REACHED SRN OK. THICK MIDDLE-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE STG SFC
DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
DIFFUSE INSOLATION AND WAA WILL BOOST MLCAPE AND REDUCE MLCINH
THROUGHOUT MIDDAY INTO AFTN IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS. TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD EXTEND AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH
AFTN AND INTO EVE...AS INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS MOISTENS.

BUOYANCY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON AVAILABILITY OF LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF ENHANCED/SUSTAINED INSOLATION OVER CENTRAL TX...AND ABSENCE OF
PRECIP/OUTFLOW FARTHER N...NEAR AND N OF I-20. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF AFTN...LIMITING HODOGRAPH
SIZE...WRN RIM OF LLJ WILL ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS AROUND 00Z AND
THEREAFTER FOR ANY SFC-BASED TSTMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD/ENEWD
FROM CENTRAL TO E-CENTRAL/NE TX. THIS CORRIDOR REPRESENTS MOST
PROBABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR FROM LATE AFTN
INTO EVENING. FARTHER S INTO S TX...THOUGH CAPE WILL BE
GREATER...SO WILL CINH...AND FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE-SCALE LIFT BECOME
MORE UNCLEAR.

...SE TX TO MS DELTA/COAST REGIONS...TONIGHT...
ATTM IT STILL IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TX CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL
1. RUN CONTINUOUSLY INTO LA/MS. SOME SWD BACKBUILDING IS PSBL INTO
SE TX AND SWRN LA...THOUGH DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER WAVE FARTHER N
AND RELATED LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SABINE
RIVER AREA MAY DISFAVOR THAT IDEA.
2. AS MOST CONVECTION-PERMITTING HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST...DEVELOP
AS SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS AND BECOME SFC-BASED CLOSER TO GULF COAST
OVER LA/MS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACCOMPANYING/WEAKLY CAPPED
LOW-LEVEL WAA ZONE THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...SUPERCELL-FAVORING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP SHEAR--E.G. EFFECTIVE SRH EXCEEDING 400 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-60 KT. THOUGH MID-60S DEW POINTS ARE
FCST...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W...KEEPING
MLCAPE/MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY LIMIT VIGOR OF MANY UPDRAFTS...DESPITE
TECHNICALLY SFC-BASED CHARACTER OF EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS IN FCST
SOUNDINGS.

...NRN OK/EXTREME SRN KS...
SOME MOIST ADVECTION ALSO MAY EXTEND OUT FROM BENEATH CLOUD SHIELD
AND INTO BETTER-HEATED AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS NRN OK/SRN KS...AHEAD
OF HIGH-PLAINS COLD FRONT. THIS COULD FOSTER
CONDITIONAL/SHORT-LIVED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STG-MRGL SVR TSTMS IN
THAT AREA. MID-UPPER SUPPORT WILL DIMINISH WITH NWD
EXTENT...LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT IS
IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF BOUNDARIES OTHER THAN DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING
ZONES AND DECAYING/DIFFUSE FRONT. STILL...STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...AND ENOUGH HEATING TO REMOVE CINH
ARE ANTICIPATED...SUGGESTING ISOLATED GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS MAY
OCCUR. MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NWD
INTO THIS REGION. ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR SVR LEVELS ALSO MAY FORM
ALONG COLD FRONT AFTER DARK AS IT ENCOUNTERS RESIDUAL/MRGLLY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 03/15/2014

[cycloneye]

It has been a very slow start to the 2014 severe season but the most active part is still ahead so we will see how it does by that time.

[cycloneye]

The month of March so far has been very slow on severe weather. Let's see if the last days of this month has some activity but it looks like more cold air will spill into the U.S to hamper it.

[RL3AO]

Ridge west/trough west is always gonna be slow. Signs of a pattern change may change things up.

[cycloneye]

2014 has begun slow on the severe weather front but the peak of season is getting close so let's see if it picks up.

[cycloneye]

Stats thru April 5th of Tornado days so far in 2014.

[cycloneye]

Below average 2014 season so far.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We're slipping back to near record-low activity...but for how long? Medium range guidance suggests a complete reversal in the trend as the overall pattern shifts from one with a West Coast ridge to one with a trough. There are several potent troughs on the GFS after 120 hours; in fact, the signals for significant severe weather are about as high as I've seen this far out. Of course, as you're aware, this is subject to change. But I wouldn't count on the lack of tornadoes continuing for too much longer...

[Ntxw]

Does look better for severe weather. We will need to get really active though because climo is naturally rising for severe weather. In order to keep up and out-do the near record levels it will require more than average activity to just get back to normal. Things start to decline in June so realistically we're already at the halfway mark.

[cycloneye]

SPC is already talking about the next severe event for mid week.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS SINGLE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES. EVEN SO THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUPPORT FOR A WELL ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY MID WEEK
AS SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS.
CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO CNTRL NEB. WHILE
DETAILS OF SHORT WAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SPEED MAXIMUM DIFFER
AMONG THE MODELS...40KT+ SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. IF A BROADER AND MORE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT...POSSIBLY OVER MULTIPLE DAYS...COULD ENSUE.
HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY WILL PRECLUDE DELINEATING A SEVERE
THREAT BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014

[EF-5bigj]

Not about to get complacent over this tornado drought,Mother Nature may come back in a big,bad way.

[cycloneye]

Not about to get complacent over this tornado drought,Mother Nature may come back in a big,bad way.

Here is a chart that shows how low the activity has been so far in 2014 comparing with past years. The calm before the big events soon?