Maybe some severe weather for SouthCentral Florida Penninsula.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS
W COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM AR TO SE TX AND NERN MEX...AS WELL AS FROM ERN SD SSWWD
ACROSS-CENTRAL NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL KS. FASTER MOVEMENT OF TRAILING
PERTURBATION WILL RESULT IN ESSENTIALLY PHASED/STRONGER TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...THOUGH
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY REMAIN DISTINCT. BY 12Z...500-MB
LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN APPALACHIANS REGION WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS GA...ERN PORTIONS FL
PANHANDLE...ERN NERN GULF.
AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW JUST OFF WRN FL
PANHANDLE COAST...AND COLD FRONT SWWD OVER CENTRAL/SWRN GULF. THIS
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE THEN
OFFSHORE GA...AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEEPENS FARTHER NE ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER ATLC. BY END OF PERIOD...ERN LOW SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANT INVOF NC OUTER BANKS..WITH COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS
ERN/SRN FL PENINSULA. AT 11Z TWO WARM FRONTS WERE DRAWN--
1. SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEMARCATING COLDEST CONTINENTAL AIR FROM PARTLY
MODIFIED C.P. TRAJECTORIES THAT FOLLOWED PRIOR FROPA. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM LOW ESEWD NEAR BUOY 42036...BECOMING WEAK COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY NLY/NELY FLOW OVER CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. OVERLAND PART
OF THIS FRONT IS DECELERATING...AS WINDS TO ITS N VEER TOWARD MORE
ELY COMPONENT WITH DEPARTURE OF WEAK ATLC LOW AND APCH OF
FRONTAL-WAVE SYSTEM.
2. MARINE FRONT DENOTING NRN EDGE OF MOST COMPLETELY MODIFIED
MARITIME AIR...EXTENDING SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL GULF THEN
EWD OVER PORTIONS KEYS/STRAITS. THIS BOUNDARY AND RELATED AIR MASS
MAY REACH PORTIONS WRN/SRN FL FROM LATE AFTN INTO EVENING...PRIOR TO
PASSAGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND COLD FRONT.
...FL...
SVR THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN IN
PRIOR OUTLOOKS...WARRANTING UPGRADED PROBABILITIES. PRIMARY THREAT
IS DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT TORNADO POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS AT LEAST MRGL
IN NATURE OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA.
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL-ORGANIZED OVER NERN GULF FOR
MANY HOURS BEFORE MOVING ASHORE AND INTO STILL-MOISTENING AIR MASS
OVER FL PENINSULA...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY...AND
MOST LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR RISK...REMAINS RATE OF PRECONVECTIVE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY NE OF AFOREMENTIONED MARINE
FRONT. STILL...ONCE DAYTIME MIXING/DRYING EFFECTS OF INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE QUELLED BY COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION...NARROW WEDGE OF MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS CENTRAL FL PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN TSTM
LINE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WOULD SUPPORT SFC-BASED
INFLOW...WITH MINIMALLY INHIBITED MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME WILL MITIGATE GREATER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THOUGH SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS INDICATED FOR BOW/LEWP
FORMATION AND AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH ANY
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. VEERING SFC FLOW ALSO WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH PROXIMITY TO SRN/MARINE FRONT..AND MAY ADVECT RICHER SERN-GULF
MOISTURE INLAND.
AHEAD OF MAIN TSTM AREA...SEPARATE CLUSTER OR BAND OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER ERN GULF AND OFFSHORE SWRN FL/KEYS...MOVING NEWD TO EWD
OVER CENTRAL/S FL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR EACH ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM S-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
KEYS/STRAITS...SOME ACTIVITY THAT FAR S MAY PRODUCE GUSTS APCHG SVR
LIMITS.
FARTHER N ACROSS NRN PENINSULA AND COASTAL BEND REGION...SUBSTANTIAL
SFC DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LESS PROBABLE...SO SVR NUMBERS ARE KEPT
MRGL THERE.