Severe Weather 3/15/14 - 3/16/14
Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:43 am
Did not see this yet, so let's go!
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/N TX...EXTREME SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151813Z - 152015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTN. SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A
WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.
DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD/DIFFUSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX WITH MODEST SE/SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST TWO
HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN PORTIONS OF
N TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES OF
1000 - 1250 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTN AS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
COMBINES WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER/LOCALLY GREATER HEATING.
LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES CENTRAL/NRN TX AND SRN OK...WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM
KFWS REFLECTS A STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPLITTING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING/STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS/SRH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LIMITING
THE OVERALL THREAT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
BY 20Z.
..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/15/2014
