Texas Fall-2014

Nairobi · #1681 Postby **Nairobi** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:25 am

Sinlaku is going to dissipate over central Vietnam. A power typhoon followed by a powerful extratropical recurving cyclone is not enough to buckle the downstream flows. The extratropical cyclone has to be in phase and slightly ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough causing the recurve. If th cyclone is at the base of the trough instead of being ahead, not much downstream effects will result.

#1682 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:35 am

@LarryCosgrove: http://t.co/z7A1L0pIzs Typhoon threat growing for Philippines around December 6; system may be ingested into developing sub-Aleutian vortex

#1683 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:57 am

We're going to get the Aleutian low anyway,the typhoon to be is a net result of WWB due to progressing MJO, we are moving into winter, the typhoon connection becomes a less necessity though it can be a signal. The more important thing to watch is the teleconnection indexes and movement of the MJO, SOI tank and typhoon net means storminess down the road as the Pacific feeds into STJ. Aleutian low will promote strong +PNA/-EPO connection.

Regarding Monday that is a prime example of the base state. Even at the face of an unfavorable pattern, dense cold air is bleeding southward under its own weight. It may not be long lived but it will bite come Monday.

#1684 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:16 am

As a quick reminder, I don't think Portastorm would mind, meteorological winter begins Monday. As you may know the discussions will be moving over to the official Texas winter thread. Srain has already posted some thoughts over there. Its that time of year again, DJF.

#1685 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 1:18 pm

Well, the "95% chance of 1 inch of rain" graphic the NWS put out didn't pan out for me - 0.39 in the last rain event.

Nairobi · #1686 Postby **Nairobi** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 1:24 pm

somethingfunny wrote:I have a tough time believing no freeze will occur at Dallas Tuesday morning, though cloud cover might keep the urban area just above.

Just reporting the output from ECMWF, here:
http://m.yr.no/place/United_States/Texa ... /long.html

#1687 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:48 pm

dhweather wrote:Well, the "95% chance of 1 inch of rain" graphic the NWS put out didn't pan out for me - 0.39 in the last rain event.

Probably the first and last time we ever see that type of graphic. :lol:

I finished with 0.33" here.

SaskatchewanScreamer · #1688 Postby **SaskatchewanScreamer** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 7:24 pm

Oh boys do I EVER have a special gift for you.....

should come via express posts once those flood gates open!!!

I turned my A/C on and opened all my freezers just because I care so much for y'all! :cheesy:

Hope your heaters from Tireman were already delivered Wxman57!!! :lol:

Nairobi · #1689 Postby **Nairobi** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:01 pm

Still no freezing temperatures forecast by ECMWF for either Dallas or Austin.

TeamPlayersBlue · #1690 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:48 pm

Nairobi wrote:Still no freezing temperatures forecast by ECMWF for either Dallas or Austin.

Patience. Cant be cold all the time. Even the coldest winters had warm spells.

Nairobi · #1691 Postby **Nairobi** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 6:26 pm

That assumes I like cold weather, which I loathe.

#1692 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:52 pm

You're in good company, many share your aversion to such weather including Wxman57.

On the other side of the coin in these good-natured Texas threads (fall and winter especially), many feel just the opposite about such weather showing up on our doorstep.

Since it is such a rarity, we go home disappointed most winters. But we keep looking, hoping and trying to better understand all of the nuts and bolts of winter weather meteorology.

#1693 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:57 pm

Speaking of winter weather, I guess it's about time for Portastorm to put the "Closed for the Season" sign out, sweep the floor, lock the door and have everyone head on over to the Texas Winter Weather 2014-15 thread.

It's been a fun autumn - look forward to another season of winter weather discussion and education on the other thread!

#1694 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:37 am

It's now officially December 1st, the start of meteorological winter.

Happy Winter folks!!!

texas1836 · #1695 Postby **texas1836** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:19 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:It's now officially December 1st, the start of meteorological winter.

Happy Winter folks!!!

Does this mean we are officially on the Winter thread?

#1696 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:50 pm

texas1836 wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:It's now officially December 1st, the start of meteorological winter.

Happy Winter folks!!!

Does this mean we are officially on the Winter thread?

Folks can continue to choose to post here if they'd like ... but most of the folks will be moving to the Texas Winter thread. Technically we have "Fall" until, what, December 22nd? Won't close the thread ... just don't expect a lot of action here.

Nairobi · #1697 Postby **Nairobi** » Tue Dec 02, 2014 2:38 pm

After tonight, the GFS struggles to get Austin down to 55 for lows through Dec.18.

DonWrk · #1698 Postby **DonWrk** » Tue Dec 02, 2014 4:04 pm

Nairobi wrote:After tonight, the GFS struggles to get Austin down to 55 for lows through Dec.18.

GFS sometimes struggles a lot.

#1699 Postby **somethingfunny** » Tue Dec 02, 2014 4:18 pm

Here is the Winter thread

We officially switched over there on December 1, as we switched over here from the summer thread on September 1.

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