Texas Fall-2014

[Nairobi]

What is your definition of SSW? Even meteorologists don't agree.

[Ntxw]

What is your definition of SSW? Even meteorologists don't agree.

Feel free to educate me what one is. I'm always eager to learn.

[Ntxw]

Here is the 0z GFS depiction of rainfall the next several days. I think many of us Texans would be happy to see this late fall, I want to see it trend a little westward as well to help some of the downstream lakes

[asd123]

What is your definition of SSW? Even meteorologists don't agree.

Feel free to educate me what one is. I'm always eager to learn.

Nairobi, I'm just curious, what do you mean by meteorologists don't agree on the definition of what SSW is? Can you provide an example? From all that I've read, the general idea seems to be this: http://www.climatesnack.com/2013/12/04/ssw/
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/warming_NH.html

[gpsnowman]

What is your definition of SSW? Even meteorologists don't agree.

I think his posts are quite clear. Most of us on here are not meteorologists but many have learned quite a bit from Ntwx's extensive knowledge of many types of weather events. Where do you live by the way? Kenya? It is always nice to know where one lives on this forum for local weather debates. We all try to learn on this website. Before I joined this amazing forum I thought SSW was the South by Southwest music festival in Austin every year. Ntwx has over 8,000 posts. How many do you have?

[asd123]

What is your definition of SSW? Even meteorologists don't agree.

I think his posts are quite clear. Most of us on here are not meteorologists but many have learned quite a bit from Ntwx's extensive knowledge of many types of weather events. Where do you live by the way? Kenya? It is always nice to know where one lives on this forum for local weather debates. We all try to learn on this website. Before I joined this amazing forum I thought SSW was the South by Southwest music festival in Austin every year. Ntwx has over 8,000 posts. How many do you have?

Too bad this forum doesn't have like or thank buttons, cause I would thank your post. Anyway, yeah, you're right, not everyone on here is a met, but some members have higher than above average knowledge (expertlike) knowledge of the weather such as NTXW. We all mutually learn from each other, and Nairobi, I would love for you to elaborate on your statement that meteorologists don't agree with the definition of SSW.

[somethingfunny]

I happen to agree that the term SSW is probably bandied around too often, as it really doesn't always apply. I don't really like the tone of the past few posts. We're here to learn and discuss, not build any personality cults, especially without blue usernames involved.

[Ntxw]

I happen to agree that the term SSW is probably bandied around too often, as it really doesn't always apply. I don't really like the tone of the past few posts. We're here to learn and discuss, not build any personality cults, especially without blue usernames involved.

I think the issue is jumping to conclusions without taking in the full meaning. An SSW is simply a change in the stratosphere temperatures and/or winds that perturbs the usual cold vortex and resulting -AO down the road. It is an SSW because it went from cold to warm in a short period of time. What many are mistaking is a mid-winter major warming of the stratosphere that correlates with extreme outbreaks, that is more debatable, usually occurring mid to late winter but is kind not as easily to agree upon.

[Nairobi]

The term "sudden stratospheric warming" is not usually associated with the garden-variety warming of the stratosphere, like what has happened during the last few days in East Asia. To reduce confusion, it would be better not to refer to that as a SSW, which is on average a once-in-two-years event during mid-winter.

The uncertainty surrounding this term and its varying definitions are discussed here:
http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/paper ... submit.pdf

[Nairobi]

Where do you live by the way? Kenya? It is always nice to know where one lives on this forum for local weather debates. ... Ntwx has over 8,000 posts. How many do you have?

I live in both East Africa and Texas, splitting my time because of my work and family obligations (who live in both places).

I have about 12,000 posts here, plus or minus 11,991.

[somethingfunny]

Welcome to Storm2K! It's gonna be a long and fun winter.

[wxman57]

I'm a big fan of STW (sudden tropospheric warming). Hope to enjoy some today and tomorrow in Houston.

[Ntxw]

I'm a big fan of STW (sudden tropospheric warming). Hope to enjoy some today and tomorrow in Houston.

Good one sir. Warm but wet! You folks in Central and SE Tx be on guard today. Hopefully we all get beneficial rains without the severe weather.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just loaded up the HRRR and man, i bet you Ntx folks wish last weeks cold snap came this week. Lots of rain for you guys today. Im keeping an eye on the severe weather here. The Low seems to be slowing down or something, not expecting the line to come through till the middle of the night now.

[KatDaddy]

A few showers and thunderstorms developing across N, Central and S TX this morning. The SPC continues the Slight Risk over the southern half of TX including SE TX. The severe weather threat will be a conditional event. Drier dew points filtered into the NE portions of SE TX overnight and we have partly cloudy skies. The clouds may be our friend today lessing the severe weather threat by not allowing much surface heating to occur. If heating occurs and storms can become surface based; the parameters (low level jet - LLJ, shear values, and helicities) will be there for all modes of severe weather (damaging straight line winds, hail, and possible tornadoes). During the late evening and night the storms will likely to congeal into an MCS over SE TX. Primary threat time remains during the afternoon from 3PM into the night time hours for the Houston-Galveston areas. By 2AM the MCS should E of SE TX plowing into SW LA. Sunday will feel like the first Spring 2015 day with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Turkey week also looks great with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s and low in the 40s. For now its time to wait, watch, and see how this conditional threat plays out.

[weatherdude1108]

Hampshire's latest post from EWX. Per Looks like hatched area for hail (2-inch or larger possible) goes from Del Rio to Rio Grande City per the 6:49am SPC post.

Heavy rain is all I would like.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221258
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE KDRT UPPER AIR SOUNDING JUST CAME IN AND IS SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A LIFTING CAP. THIS CAP
SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE SHORTLY AS LIFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. THE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE SOUNDING ARE PUSHING 9
C/KM. THE 500 TEMPERATURE COOLED FROM -12C TO -17C IN JUST 12
HOURS. WE ARE GETTING MORE CONCERNED WITH THE SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL FROM ANY STORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED AND
SUSTAINED. ANOTHER CONCERNING CHANGE IS REDEVELOPMENT SHOWING UP
ON THE HRRR. THE HRRR IS OUT NOW TO 1Z AND IS SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 23-00Z. THIS WAS SHOWN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE NAM...BUT NOW THAT THERE IS SUPPORT
FROM THE HRRR THERE MAY BE SOMETHING TO IT. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
INCREASE POPS AFTER 00Z FOR AREAS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER
ASPECT TO THIS IS IF WE GET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...FORECASTED
RAIN TOTALS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. UPDATED THE HWO TO MENTION
ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

HAMPSHIRE

[JDawg512]

Was awoken by a very loud clap of thunder a few minutes ago. Going back to sleep now.

[Rgv20]

Morning Discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville..

12Z NAM...00Z HIGH RES ARW/NMM...GFS AND THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BRO CWA
AROUND 6 PM. STRONG TERRAIN INDUCED CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AMID STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 700/800MB WINDS. THIS
KEEPS CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE DAYTIME WILL BE FREE
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE 12Z NAM LIFTS/ELIMINATES
THIS CAPPING THROUGH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT. THIS COUPLES WITH
RICH AND RELATIVELY DEEP LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST AND 2500
J/KG FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 KNOTS WOULD AID IN
ORGANIZING THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
STORM MOTION WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE VERY QUICK TO THE NORTHEAST.

CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT AN
UPSCALE TO AN MCS/MULTICELL CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE. 12Z NAM ALSO
PRESENTS STRONGER 0-1KM SHEAR...AROUND 25 KNOTS AS STORMS MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES...YIELDING 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 150 M2/S2. 09Z SREF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE AND
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO VALUES OF 1 TO 3 SHOW SOME ENSEMBLE
CREDIBILITY TO THESE VALUES WHICH BRINGS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
RESIDUAL WARM AIR FROM EARLIER CAPPING LIMITING LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
INTENSITY...BUT NAM/GFS 0-3KM CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT AND
APPEAR TO HAVE MODELED THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN INDUCED WARMING
WELL. THIS HIGHER LOW LAYER SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN PRESENT ON PRIOR
MODEL RUNS SO HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM...BUT WITH DIVERGENCE
INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED IT MAKES
GOOD MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SENSE. IF THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO INITIATE
ON THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE AND WEAK...IS REQUIRED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE
APPRECIABLY LOWER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE OFFICE WILL BE CONDUCTING AN 1800 UTC SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE
TO GATHER ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
OF THE REGION. /68-JGG/

[weatherdude1108]

Having a nice on and off heavy rain with some lightning and thunder here at the Weatherdude center. "Marginal Risk" for Austin according to latest SPC discussion. San Antonio and points that have more sunshine are in the "Slight Risk" areas. Flood advisories and warnings around here. All in all very nice RAIN here. I am thankful!

[TheProfessor]

Hmm, it looks like both storms are going to collide over the Metroplex.