Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Tue-Wed (6/2-3)
Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:31 am
Day 3 Outlook for Tuesday coming in a bit. Latest models are pretty amazing to look out, with helicity values maxed out along the warm front in Nebraska by 0z Wednesday. 0-3km SRH on the order of 1200m2/s2 and 0-1km SRH approaching 800m2/s2 on the 0z GFS.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...A MEANDERING E-W FRONT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA EWD INTO THE NERN
STATES AND MID ATLANTIC.
TUESDAY /DAY 4/...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CRESTS UPPER RIDGE BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 50
TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD BENEATH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD
ABOVE THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS
THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED BOW ECHO SYSTEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL
AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
WED /DAY 5/...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WHERE AN E-W FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MOIST...UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. BELT
OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE...AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE ONGOING
MCS TO CONTINUE. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND ORGANIZED MCS EVENTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
BEYOND WED...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC DAY 6-7.
..DIAL.. 05/31/2014
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING THROUGH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...A MEANDERING E-W FRONT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA EWD INTO THE NERN
STATES AND MID ATLANTIC.
TUESDAY /DAY 4/...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CRESTS UPPER RIDGE BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 50
TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD BENEATH
THE STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD
ABOVE THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS
THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED BOW ECHO SYSTEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL
AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
WED /DAY 5/...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WHERE AN E-W FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A MOIST...UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. BELT
OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE...AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE ONGOING
MCS TO CONTINUE. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND ORGANIZED MCS EVENTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
BEYOND WED...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC DAY 6-7.
..DIAL.. 05/31/2014