Fall Severe Weather Season

[WeatherGuesser]

Fall Brings the Risk of More Tornadoes to our Region


Tornadoes have caused loss of life and much destruction in our region during the fall season. Late September through October and much of November typically bring more favorable conditions for tornadoes and other severe thunderstorm events such as large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. This increase is driven by a more dynamic atmosphere that occurs during the fall transition to cooler temperatures. This transition period sometimes yields low pressure systems and their associated frontal systems that can provide an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes. Some stark reminders of our fall tornado threat include:

* September 22-23, 2006; 10 tornadoes struck our region, including an EF4 in Perry county, MO and Jackson county, IL.

* October 18, 2007; 16 tornadoes struck our region including an EF3 tornado in Owensboro, KY. Twenty two were injured.

* October 31, 2013; a record tornado outbreak in our region for October with 17 tornadoes.

* November 6, 2005; An EF3 tornado developed near Smith Mills, KY before killing 25 in the Evansville, IN area.

* November 15, 2005; An EF4 tornado struck the Madisonville, KY area, injuring 27 with the longest track KY tornado (EF3) in decades striking Marshall and adjacent counties.

* November 17, 2013; An EF3 tornado kills 3 people in/near Brookport Illinois.

As a result, it is vital that you be prepared as we progress through the fall tornado season. Each day this week we will discuss a variety of topics in preparation of our fall severe weather season.

For additional information see http://www.weather.gov/paducah

For additional information see http://www.weather.gov/paducah

[WeatherGuesser]

Slight Risk areas up for tonight, tomorrow and Wednesday. 1 TOR and 1 SVR Watch in effect for this evening.

[WeatherGuesser]

Large Slight Risk for tomorrow, 10/2, from Chicago to central Texas.

Temps in much of the area in the mid to upper 80s today and forecast to be in the 60s Friday.

Any thoughts on them going Moderate?

[WeatherGuesser]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND E TX NNE INTO
THE OZARKS...MID-MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINES AND LIKELY WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS
POTENT SRN RCKYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS E...AND LATER NE...ACROSS
THE SRN PLNS AND LWR MS VLY AHEAD OF UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW MOVING
SE ACROSS ALBERTA. THE RCKYS IMPULSE SHOULD REACH CNTRL OK THIS EVE
AND SRN IL BY 12Z FRI AS A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
PLNS/MS VLY.

AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS SHOULD TRACK
SLOWLY E INTO MO AND WRN AR THIS EVE BEFORE DEEPENING AND
ACCELERATING NNE TO LK MI EARLY FRI. COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE
LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WAA
ZONE EXTENDING ENE INTO THE MID-MS/LWR OH VLYS.

...SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY INTO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRI...

VERY MOIST AIR /PW AROUND 1.75/ NOW OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLNS AND LWR MS VLY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NNE INTO THE
MID-MS...TN...AND OH VLYS LATER TODAY AND TNGT AS DEEP SSW TO SWLY
FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS AND OF SRN RCKYS UPR IMPULSE.

TSTMS NOW OVER ERN OK AND WRN/CNTRL MO ARE FORMING WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY POSE A SPORADIC RISK OF LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/HAIL GIVEN ACCESS TO RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
40+ KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR. FARTHER W...STORMS IN CNTRL KS/FAR S CNTRL
NEB ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF ASCENT LOOSELY
TIED TO THE RCKYS UPR TROUGH. THESE STORMS COULD POSE A SVR HAIL
RISK EWD INTO NE KS AND PERHAPS NW MO /REF MCD 1793/...BEFORE THE
ASCENT BAND MOVES FARTHER E BEYOND NARROW...ELEVATED EML PLUME NOW
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION.

TOWARD MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM WITH SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF ACCELERATING CNTRL/SRN
PLNS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WITH 40-50 KT...UNIDIRECTIONAL...SWLY 700-500 MB
FLOW AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY MERGE INTO AN
EXTENSIVE BROKEN SQLN FROM THE MO OZARKS SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. WHILE A
COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN
ERN OK AND TX...THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BECOME DMGG WIND AS SETUP
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE E/SE INTO THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS TNGT THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 10/02/2014

[EF-5bigj]

It looks like there could be some sever weather this weekend.

[brunota2003]

We had severe weather here in central and eastern KY on Monday and Tuesday of this past week (the 6th and 7th).

Here at the house on Monday, we got hail up to penny sized and winds of about 50 mph on the ridges. There were many twigs and some branches up to 1/2 inch in diameter down. Early that night, we had another severe warned storm roll through. This one took down many branches up to 1/2 inch in diameter, and some branches up to an inch in diameter (that I saw personally). Just on the other side of the mountain, they had a couple trees down on a nearby roadway, and some limbs up to 4 or so inches in diameter.

Tuesday stayed mostly dry for us at the house, but about 15 miles away, as the crow flies, they had a train of supercells blow through. It was just one after another lined up, passing over the same areas repeatedly. I'd bet some areas went under tornado warnings 7 or 8 times that afternoon and evening.

I run time-lapses quite a bit when active weather is around. This first video is the time-lapse from when the severe thunderstorm rolled through on Monday: http://youtu.be/lpb3PVsGzOI

On Tuesday, lower level clouds and the mountain kept me from catching views of most of the storms (save for seeing part of the anvil pass overhead). There was a brief window where low level clouds cleared out long enough for me to catch one of the passing supercells. In this video, you can clearly see the downdraft, with what appears to be a "bulge" going down the side of the downdraft...my guess is that it was an area that was overloaded by hail, and that was a downburst in progress. After the downdraft goes by, the updraft region passes by and then the video ends: http://youtu.be/NBTYgNrV81Q

These videos show a couple different things dealing with spotting. While my area is not entirely consistent with all of eastern/central KY (I live in a small, but deep valley)...it shows just how limiting to visibility hills/mountains and forests can be. Add to that poor cell phone coverage, high storm motions and so many low level clouds blocking your view into a storm (assuming you can get one to begin with), and you can see why chasing severe storms around these parts aren't necessarily the best thing to do...especially if you don't live in these areas and don't know them!

We could get more severe weather Monday into Tuesday...if you'll be in these areas, please be very cautious!

[EF-5bigj]

It's looking like Dixie Alley will have a rough Monday.

[WeatherGuesser]

WS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR...SE
MO...NW MS...WRN TN...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARKS...LOWER MS VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME TORNADOES AND HAIL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
TODAY AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MO AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND EAST TX. A SQUALL-LINE WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SW MO SWD ACROSS
WRN AR AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE TX. THIS SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE...A WELL-DEVELOPED 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL HELP REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF AR INTO SERN MO THIS MORNING. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S F ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
AND ERN AR THIS MORNING. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WILL EXIST THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN
AR...NW MS AND FAR WRN TN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL JETS BECOME COUPLED AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS DRIVEN BY WIND...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.

...LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES NEWD
AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE
SSELY...HELPING TO REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOCATED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NNEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. NAM FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT SBCAPE COULD REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS
CNTRL INDIANA. ALTHOUGH A SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD IL AND INDIANAPOLIS AT 18Z SHOW 40
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7.0
C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
MULTICELLS THIS MORNING. AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...THE NRN END OF A SQUALL-LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 65 KT
POSSIBLE.

...GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX. A SQUALL-LINE
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL TX AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING EWD INTO LA THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BATON ROUGE AT 18Z SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F...MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 45 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT MAKING THE GREATEST
WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE REGION FROM CNTRL AND NRN
LA EWD INTO CNTRL MS.

..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 10/13/2014

[WeatherGuesser]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0833 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid-south and
lower mississippi valley today into tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Eastern Arkansas
Mississippi
Western Tennessee
Southeast Missouri
Northern Louisiana
Western Kentucky
Southern Illinois

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few tornadoes
Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight
from East Texas through the lower and middle Mississippi Valley
to parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Gulf Coast
states. Widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
likely, especially over the Mid South and lower Mississippi
Valley regions today.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Guyer.. 10/13/2014

[WeatherGuesser]

Tornado Watches 534, 535 and 536 in effect, covering areas from central IL to the TX/LA Gulf Coast

[EF-5bigj]

We are having tornado warnings in MS right now.

[WeatherGuesser]

As of this moment, 12 Tornado Warnings and 18 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.



One entering Tennessee from the south that if it stays together and on track, could threaten Nashville.

[SeGaBob]

For my area...



ALERT 1 - Tornado Watch

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2:00PM EDT

Event Start: In Progress

Event End: Tuesday, October 14, 2014 2:00 PM EDT


Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Tornado Watch Number 546
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014

The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A

• Tornado Watch For Portions Of
Eastern Georgia
Western North Carolina
Central And Western South Carolina
Coastal Waters

• Effective This Tuesday Morning And Afternoon From 700 AM Until
200 PM EDT.

• Primary Threats Include...
A Couple Tornadoes Possible
Scattered Damaging Winds Likely With Isolated Significant Gusts
To 75 Mph Possible

The Tornado Watch Area Is Approximately Along And 80 Statute
Miles Either Side Of A Line From 60 Miles East Of Vidalia Georgia
To 20 Miles West Of Hickory North Carolina. For A Complete
Depiction Of The Watch See The Associated Watch Outline Update
(wous64 Kwns Wou6).

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Remember...A Tornado Watch Means Conditions Are Favorable For
Tornadoes And Severe Thunderstorms In And Close To The Watch
Area. Persons In These Areas Should Be On The Lookout For
Threatening Weather Conditions And Listen For Later Statements
And Possible Warnings.

&&

Other Watch Information...Continue...Ww 544...Ww 545...

Discussion...Qlcs With Long History Of Episodic Damaging Wind And
Embedded Mesocirculations Is Expected To Proceed Newd Into And
Across Ww Area. Foregoing Air Mass Will Be Marginally But
Supportively Unstable Initially...With Additional Destabilization
Forecast From Thetae Advection And Muted Sfc Heating...Amidst
Favorable Low-Level And Bulk Shear. Ref Spc Mesoscale Discussion
1889 For More Meteorological Details.

Aviation...Tornadoes And A Few Severe Thunderstorms With Hail
Surface And Aloft To 0.5 Inch. Extreme Turbulence And Surface
Wind Gusts To 65 Knots. A Few Cumulonimbi With Maximum Tops To
500. Mean Storm Motion Vector 23035.

...Edwards
Bulletin Issued: Tuesday, October 14, 2014 8:24 AM EDT

Bulletin Expires: Tuesday, October 14, 2014 2:00 PM EDT

[EF-5bigj]

There is a strong tornado signature in MS right now.

[EF-5bigj]

Well I'm reading news reports of 4 deaths due to the tornado and damage looks significant.

[EF-5bigj]

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=87808 more information