2015 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[cycloneye]

It looks like the rest of January will be quiet as a cold air mass dominates. So far 2015 has 25 tornadoes confirmed.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED D4/MON...CHARACTERIZED
BY A TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SRN-STREAM
TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST. LOW-LEVEL NLYS SHOULD DOMINATE THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST D6/WED WITH ONLY WEAK MODIFICATION
THEREAFTER. BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE COASTAL CA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS INLAND.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The U.S. tornado count for January 2015, barring any changes when NCDC publishes their Storm Data later this year, will stand at 24. This is approximately 69% of the 1991-2010 average of 35 tornadoes.

[RL3AO]

After tornado watch #4 was issued a few days ago, I asked Greg Carbin on Twitter what the longest stretch between SPC watches was. The next day he put this graphic on his WCM page.



As you can see, this was the longest stretch between severe weather watches since 1986.

[cycloneye]

2015 season is already below normal compared with past few years. Let's see how March behaves as normally things start to turn active.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 2015 tornado season is off to an unusually quiet start, even more so than the past 3 years. January finished with 24 tornadoes, approximately 69% of average (monthly avg is 35), while February finished with just 2 tornadoes, a whopping 7% of average (monthly avg is 29). Therefore, the year-to-date count stands at 26, or approximately 41% of average (average is 64). Going into March, the upper-air pattern favors a continuation of cooler than average temperatures across the Central and East United States, which should diminish the chances for large tornado outbreaks.

[EF-5bigj]

In Dixie alley I'm not so much concerned about March as I am April given our violent tornado potential in that month.

[cycloneye]

From Reed Timmons:

We're planning on releasing a test tornado forecast by state next week for this spring and summer, but based on my initial glance of this SST pattern and comparing it with the characteristic patterns in my dissertation - I'd say generally this will be a late starting storm season, first in Dixie Alley from an active Subtropical Jet Stream, and then an active late April/May in the Southern Plains. Similar ENSO conditions were present during late winter/early spring of 1994, 1995, and 2003, each of which were active seasons in the Panhandle region. While this is only a few years, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some early June tornado outbreaks in the Texas Panhandle this season... but keep in mind this is more speculation and hand waving at this point.

https://community.tvnweather.com/t/el-n ... rnadoes/82

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm starting to hate this year. I at least want to see Youtube videos of tornadoes touching down in open areas. This zero-ness ain't gonna do it.

[cycloneye]

2015 is almost at the bottom of all the lines of activity of past years as shown at the graphic on the first post.

[RL3AO]

This is beyond quiet. This first 3 months may be the equivalent to a 500 year flood (or would drought work better). We're talking levels around 25% of the previous all time quiet start with both warnings and watches. There has only been one severe convective watch since January 4th.

[EF-5bigj]

There are marginal risks but I have yet to see a slight or moderate risk let alone a high.

[cycloneye]

Maybe finally some severe activity this week?

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MO INTO NWRN AR
AND ERN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
SERN OK INTO EXTREME SERN IA/WRN IL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...MO/AR/OK...

STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
NEAR THE MID MO RIVER BY 24/21Z. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
SHOULD EJECT ACROSS KS INTO NRN MO WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 100KT AT 500MB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER NRN IL. STRONGEST
ASCENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN DIFLUENT FLOW OF EXIT REGION OF THIS SPEED
MAX OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION/ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS NEB INTO IA/NRN IL JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT GRADUALLY
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC FRONT/DRY LINE WILL
ADVANCE TO THE KS/MO BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS SFC-BASED CONVECTION PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING. WHILE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED NORTH OF THE
WARM SECTOR...LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
WITHIN VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE MID 70S
AND INHIBITION WEAKENS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST AT ROUGHLY 35KT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY RISKS. ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ORGANIZED BY
06Z AS LLJ SHIFTS INTO NRN IL/IND.

..DARROW.. 03/22/2015

[cycloneye]

The area coverage of slight risk for day 3 is expanded.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
NW TX TO SWRN IND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY...

SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WITHIN NWLY FLOW...WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
BY 26/00Z. WITH TIME...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MIGRATE EAST TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DIGGING SHORT WAVE...SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH
OF KS INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE BY PEAK HEATING.

AT THE SFC...IT APPEARS A WEAK LEE CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE
SURGING COLD FRONT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SWRN OK JUST PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...EXTENDING NEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL OK. SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
TX WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS
OK INTO SWRN MO. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 21-00Z WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WHILE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE
CYCLE...IT APPEARS FRONTAL FORCING COULD LEAD TO AN ELONGATED BAND
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LESS
CERTAINTY EXISTS ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS NWRN TX. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...THOUGH STRONGLY SHEARED STORMS SHOULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN IL/IND DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AS THE COLD FRONT
DRIVES DEEP INTO TX.

..DARROW.. 03/23/2015

[cycloneye]

SPC introduces new tables to identify the different risks.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

Day 1.



Day 2.



Day 3.

[EF-5bigj]

I like the new tables it looks like Tuesday and Wed we might actually finally see a tornado or two.

[WeatherGuesser]

^^ That's not really something to wish for.

[EF-5bigj]

I know I'm hoping if they happen they stay in remote places away from people.

[WeatherGuesser]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MAIN BODY OF OK INTO
NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX TO SRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO NRN KY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SECONDARY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE...SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS FORCING A STRONG POLAR FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF KS INTO THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 25/18Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SURGE TO A POSITION
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK/MO BY EARLY EVENING.

LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST 60F SFC
DEW POINTS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVATIONAL DATA LATE THIS EVENING SEEMS SUPPORTIVE
OF THIS SCENARIO AS 60F DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVANCED INLAND TO
NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD EASILY LIFT NWD
INTO OK AHEAD OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
WILL RANGE FROM 8-9C/KM. WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ROUGHLY
MINUS 18C AT 500MB...AND SFC TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS SWRN OK...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR
AROUND 22-23Z AS CAP ERODES JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. INITIAL STORMS
MAY BE DISCRETE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF WEAK SFC
LOW. HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD QUICKLY ENCOURAGE AN
ORGANIZED BAND OF SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR THAT
WILL PROPAGATE SEWD. HAIL...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD
BE NOTED WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
EXTEND NEWD ALONG THE POLAR FRONT ACROSS SRN MO...PERHAPS SPREADING
INTO SRN IL IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..DARROW.. 03/24/2015

[WeatherGuesser]

Drat. I was hoping we'd make it though March without one.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

[WeatherGuesser]

Note that this is WW0005 for this year.

In 2014:

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 32
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014