STORM2K

Here we go with the 2015 U.S severe weather thread (Like a mother thread) to allow the peeps to keep track of how the severe weather season in the U.S is doing in terms of activity. Of course,the members can post as we always do in this forum individual threads of specific dates of upcomming severe weather events. In this thread, the members can discuss all about how the season is doing in terms of the stats.Also videos and photos of 2015 tornadoes and the aftermath damage will be posted and the forecasts for the next severe weather events will be posted as well. Let's see when the severe activity starts to pick up this year and let's see if it will be an active season or not.

2015 Wikipedia information

2015 SPC Summary

3 years of relative inactivity in a row (although that doesn't mean there aren't bad tornadoes and events) - will it continue for a fourth?

The 2015 season has begun very early with some severe reports.

Rose hill,MS had a large and extremely dangerous tornado pass through.

Damage has occurred in Mississippi.

“@RyanMooreMS: Extesive damage to a mobile home along County Road 20 in Jasper County. #mswx ”
@tornadotrackers

I actually was not expecting a large, extremely dangerous tornado today. But that's weather for you :S

Some damage occurred in the town of Alma in Georgia as a tornado moved thru 2 injuries occurred and are in hospital.

ALMA, GA (WTOC) - Two people are being treated for serious injuries after a tornado touched down around 1 p.m. on Sunday in the Rockingham community of Bacon County.

Bacon County Fire and EMS, Bacon County Volunteer Fire Department, and the Bacon County Sheriff's Office responded to the scene where two structures had been damaged on Highway 34, one was small store and the other was a mobile home.

Two people were entrapped in the double wide mobile home, one woman and one man were extricated after an hour of work to get them both out.

Both the woman and the man were transported to Bacon County Hospital were they are being treated for serious injuries, one is being taken to a trauma center as soon as they are determined to be in stable condition.

There are reports of downed trees in the area of Rockingham. There are also reports the tornado traveled in a North East direction with the damage starting in the Rockingham community.

http://www.wtoc.com/story/27756898/2-in ... wn-in-alma

SPC opened the 2015 data and so far this year has begun like a bang in a above average way with 18 tornadoes.See the first post graphics and hyperlink.

18 tornadoes is above average for tornadoes??

EF-5bigj wrote:18 tornadoes is above average for tornadoes??

For the first days of the year 18 is a higher number as you can see the graphic at first post with other years since 2005 added.Only 2006 had more tornadoes (22) than 2015 on the first 5 days.

Ntxw,Tx 13 and others. How do you see the 2015 severe weather season shaping up in terms of being more active than 2014? (1,055 tornadoes)

I think it could be active but I don't know if Tornado Alley or Dixie Alley will be the most active. If it's active in either this tornado season could be potentially bad.

Looks like things will be quiet for the next few days.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CST WED JAN 07 2015

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY AND TRANSITION
TO QUASI-ZONAL DAY 4-5 WITH A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SRN STREAM IMPULSES. LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN INLAND
WILL KEEP PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS VERY LOW.

BEYOND DAY 5 SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LOW...BUT MODEL
SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE...SUGGESTING LOW
PREDICTABILITY.

Another confirmed tornado that adds to 19 to the 2015 total so far.

.JENA TORNADO (GREENE AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 1.27 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: NONE

START DATE: JAN 03 2015
START TIME: 519 PM CST
START LOCATION: 0.7 MI S OF JENA
START LAT/LON: 33.1243 / -87.8438

END DATE: JAN 03 2015
END TIME: 521 PM CST
END LOCATION: 0.8 MI NE OF JENA
END LAT/LON: 33.1382 / -87.8298

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE IN GREENE
AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTIES AND CONFIRMED A WEAK TORNADO. THE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE GREENE-TUSCALOOSA COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTH OF
THE JENA COMMUNITY. THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN WAS ALONG SHILOH RD
WHERE TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHEAST INTO
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY CROSSING HOMESTEAD RD AND ROMULUS RD WHERE TWO
HOMES SUFFERED ROOF DAMAGE AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST NORTH OF ROMULUS RD.

cycloneye wrote:Ntxw,Tx 13 and others. How do you see the 2015 severe weather season shaping up in terms of being more active than 2014? (1,055 tornadoes)

Predicting tornado activity months in advance is much more difficult than even predicting tropical cyclone activity. However, based on the combination of a warm ENSO and positive PDO, along with warmer than average Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures, I favor a near average tornado season (~1200 tornadoes).

Hmmm above average temps in the gulf already??

Here's how the tornado count stands at the current time, by state:



I will keep this image updated and post it here after tornadic events throughout the year.

As a reminder, myself along with a few other editors maintain the List of United States tornadoes in January 2015 (and associated pages), so look there for more detailed information on individual tornadoes.

cycloneye wrote:Ntxw,Tx 13 and others. How do you see the 2015 severe weather season shaping up in terms of being more active than 2014? (1,055 tornadoes)

When you are talking about maybe the least active season on record, odds say to bet "over" 2014's total.

Dixie Alley at it again....

Still anything severe for the next few days.

...DISCUSSION...
MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER THE GULF STREAM
AND SOUTH CARIBBEAN AS REPETITIVE CP AIR MASSES PLUNGE ACROSS THE
CONUS TOWARD LOWER LATITUDES. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
NOTED FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA...FORECAST
BUOYANCY IS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SEVERE RISK.

..DARROW.. 01/10/2015