Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

NWS FWD is saying the Metroplex could see an additional 3-7 inches of rain.

The old record from 1991 is going to get obliterated. And we still have an entire month to go. Goodness.

Quite a year of rain! El Nino's southern storm track in December (especially if its mild) is usually very wet we may come out with a 60"+ year! December is often the wettest winter month during +ENSO

[TheProfessor]

NWS FWD is saying the Metroplex could see an additional 3-7 inches of rain.

The old record from 1991 is going to get obliterated. And we still have an entire month to go. Goodness.

Quite a year of rain! El Nino's southern storm track in December (especially if its mild) is usually very wet we may come out with a 60"+ year! December is often the wettest winter month during +ENSO

I'm hoping for 1 snow storm while I'm home in December though.

[Portastorm]

Tragic news from north Texas.

http://thescoopblog.dallasnews.com/2015/11/heavy-rains-lead-to-flooding-in-parts-of-dallas-fort-worth-area.html/?hootPostID=777f68aa85b3f13e96ba0512ade998f5

How many times do we need to shout "TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN." You don't mess with water flowing across or even on roadways. You just don't do that. You always will lose.

You Metroplexers please stay safe today.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

the front wont even make it down here, heck, we may not see any substantial rain at all. Hope you guys are having a great thanksgiving! Very thankful for you guys and the knowledge you provide!

[gpsnowman]

You would think that with all the coverage and electronic warnings on the highways people would have better common sense than to test the power of flowing water. It amazes me.
Professor, I agree. At least one storm will pull enough cold air down for some pretty snowfall. Winter is just starting and I think our chances are very good for one or two snows.

[Ralph's Weather]

I have had just a few light showers this morning. It is 70 with the front within a couple miles.

[TheProfessor]

Sleet changed to snow in Topeka Kansas, snow wasn't forecasted at all.

[Ralph's Weather]

Sleet changed to snow in Topeka Kansas, snow wasn't forecasted at all.

This storm is def a bit cooler than forecast at the surface and above. It is making for quite the winter storm out west. I saw that some ice has already been reported around Midland.

[ndale]

I think you are right about the weather services under estimating the cold temps in the air mass and the speed, EWX just mentioned the front is about 2 hours ahead of what was expected.

[TarrantWx]

Sleet changed to snow in Topeka Kansas, snow wasn't forecasted at all.

This storm is def a bit cooler than forecast at the surface and above. It is making for quite the winter storm out west. I saw that some ice has already been reported around Midland.

FWIW, I just saw a report of sleet pellets mixing in with the rain in Denton on Twitter.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

I think you are right about the weather services under estimating the cold temps in the air mass and the speed, EWX just mentioned the front is about 2 hours ahead of what was expected.

The front is through the northwestern third of Williamson County already and encroaching upon the Austin metro area's western borders. We should feel it in the next hour or two. And yes it is a bit ahead of schedule although the temp drop appears to be 20-25 degrees. Not sure it is colder than progged down here but it definitely will feel a lot more "wintry" here by late afternoon.

[STX Expat]

Sleet changed to snow in Topeka Kansas, snow wasn't forecasted at all.

This storm is def a bit cooler than forecast at the surface and above. It is making for quite the winter storm out west. I saw that some ice has already been reported around Midland.

FWIW, I just saw a report of sleet pellets mixing in with the rain in Denton on Twitter.

Sleet mixing in a bit here in Sherman as well.

Belated Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Time to get out of lurk mode and usher in some winter weather.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Strong cold front slicing across TX this early afternoon.

Frontal boundary marked by a solid 20-25 degree temperature drop is located from east of Dallas to north of Austin and NW of Del Rio. Temperatures ahead of this boundary are in the humid mid to upper 70’s and fall quickly into the 40’s and 30’s behind the front. For example Hobby Airport is currently 79 versus 47 at Waco and 36 at Childress. As suspected the shallow yet dense air mass is forcing southward faster than the models were thinking and the front is running about 2-3 hours ahead of even the fastest guidance. Expect the front to reach our NW counties in the next few hours and then toward the US 59 corridor between midnight and 300am. Front will really begin to lose its forward push south of I-10, but like the TX TECH handling of the boundary which goes ahead and pushes it off the coast into the 0-20 miles range offshore before stalling. Expect cold air mass to overspread much of the region with temperatures running from the low 40’s near College Station to near 60 along the coast over the weekend. These may be a few degrees too warm especially near the coast, but there is uncertainty on exactly where the front stalls.

Moist southwest flow aloft ahead of a large slow moving upper level storm system over the SW US will continue both ahead and behind the front. Surface front will aid in adding a lifting boundary to help produce more scattered showers tonight through the weekend along with disturbances ejecting out of the circulation of Sandra nearing the west MX coast. 850mb front remains far inland over NW TX where best dynamics and best forcing will be found…and hence the heaviest rainfall totals. Rainfall amounts over our area will run 1-2 inches NW of US 59 to less than .50 of an inch from Galveston Bay to Liberty County. Drier conditions to the SE are a function of better ridging aloft out of the Gulf of Mexico and extremely shallow frontal slope in the region.

Really no change in this damp and cold pattern through at least the first half of next week as yet another system approaches from the west with a good feed of moisture aloft from the eastern Pacific. Thus the well entrench El Nino pattern continues across the SW US and southern plains.

Note: Heavy rainfall overnight pushed Dallas over the record for their wettest year ever! With still another month to go in 2015 this record will only increase.

[Tireman4]

Still ugh and miserable here in Houston....79 degrees..

[ndale]

Front arrived here about an hour ago and temp dropped from 73 to 52.

[SouthernMet]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
145 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. THIS ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RESULTING IN PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
OR A MIXTURE OF THE TWO...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

TXZ064-065-099-114-127-128-280345-
/O.EXA.KSJT.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-151128T1800Z/
STERLING-COKE-THROCKMORTON-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...
THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...
CROSS PLAINS
145 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AS PERIODS OF THIS MIXTURE FALL OVER THE AREA.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE MAY OCCUR ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...POWER LINES...AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES.
THIS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
MUCH COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S.
VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE LIMITED IN HEAVIER PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS.

[wxman57]

Still ugh and miserable here in Houston....79 degrees..

Perfect weather for some yard work today. Still waiting for an extended cool-down to have my AC unit replaced. Might come by February...

[Portastorm]

Still seeing roughly a 20-25 temperature drop within several hours behind the front. Here at the Portastorm Weather Center in today-not-so-scenic southwest Travis County we had 76 degrees at 1:30 p.m. Two hours later we're at 52 degrees and dropping.

[Tireman4]

Still ugh and miserable here in Houston....79 degrees..

Perfect weather for some yard work today. Still waiting for an extended cool-down to have my AC unit replaced. Might come by February...

Sigh

[SouthernMet]

NWS expands Ice Storm Warning into OKC Metro, Norman, Chickashaw & Lawton.
San Angelo also talking about a possible upgrade to Ice Storm Warning.