Texas Summer-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Going to be a wet day here in SE Tx

[weatherdude1108]

We have yet to see one drop here in Central Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: I have some good news for you, the central tropical Pacific is having an explosion of convection. Seasonal jet is shuffling, there could be a risk of flooding rains within the next 45-60 days so while the immediate forecast isn't, it is lurking. Feast or famine it seems lately.

More on that in a bigger post tonight.

45-60 days? Wow. Something to look forward to anyway. I'll keep the once a week watering schedule going in the interim to keep the soil cracks from growing too much. Whatever heavy rain falls now will drain right into the cracks.

Thanks for the hopeful news. At least north and southeast Texas are benefitting from this current system. It smells like it wants to rain here.

I think Portastorm jinxed us here in the Austin area. Hmmm.

[TheProfessor]

I might be coming back home from college in 55 days ( I have a 4 day weekend then) Hopefully none of the days I would be flying would have rain on them.

[Rgv20]

Almost 7 weeks without Rain and the streak is over! Currently raining pretty hard down here!

[Portastorm]

We have yet to see one drop here in Central Texas.

We can blame our friends in the Valley and SE Texas. They're hogging all the Gulf moisture inflow!

[CaptinCrunch]

Finally got some rain this morning, a couple of good showers passed over, about .25 in all. It least the cool air was nice and really got my Fall senses going.

[TarrantWx]

12pm temperature across the Metroplex on August 20th. Are we even going to make it out of the 70's today? No complaints here!

TXZ118-119-201800-
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DFW AIRPORT CLOUDY 71 61 70 NE7 30.03F
DALLAS LOVE CLOUDY 71 62 73 E6 30.03F
FTW MEACHAM CLOUDY 71 61 70 E7 30.04S
DAL-EXECUTIVE CLOUDY 69 63 81 E7 30.03F
FTW-ALLIANCE PTSUNNY 74 62 66 SE7 30.04S
FTW-NAS-JRB CLOUDY 71 60 68 NE3 30.05S
FTW-SPINKS CLOUDY 70 63 78 CALM 30.05S
ARLINGTON CLOUDY 72 60 66 N6 30.04S
GRAND PRAIRIE MOSUNNY 70 61 73 NE7 30.05S
ADDISON PTSUNNY 70 61 73 MISG 30.04
MESQUITE CLOUDY 66 64 94 NE6 30.04F
LANCASTER CLOUDY 66 62 85 E5 30.05R

[TeamPlayersBlue]

73F and a nice pitter patter of rain, *siiiigghhhhhh* So much better than a heat wave. Like Ntx, said, and something ive mentioned, i think Sept/Oct will be very very wet for Texas. This winter will be very interesting. They always are but this one i think will be a bit special with the warm pool.

Also, when can we start track the Siberian Snow Index?!?!?!

[weatherdude1108]

It's RAINING here at work in north Austin!!

[gpsnowman]

According to my phone it is 70 degrees in Grand Prairie as well as Dallas. Unreal! Loving the clouds and cool air. I would imagine the DFW area is flirting with a record high minimum for today. Still a few hours to warm up, especially if the clouds clear later. Too bad this is basically a one day break, looks to get back towards 100 by the weekend. Fall can not come soon enough.

[gboudx]

I've been running shirtless this summer, but I think it may be too nippy for that today. 71 degrees.

[CaptinCrunch]

it's 73 here in DT FTW, Don't think we are going to make that forecast high of 84 today. Might not even make it to 75.......

[gpsnowman]

This is crazy now. It is 3:30 now and still 70 here in GP. Clouds are still thick with just a bit of drizzle. Unless the clouds thin or clear I do not see any warm up the rest of today. Could be a situation where overnight temps actually rise though. Still, today has been very comfortable considering while doing yardwork today I barely broke a sweat. What a tease, hotter temps on the way!!

[weatherdude1108]

I hope the line that has formed to my north in the last hour and a half holds together to get my house in on some action. Seems iffy as of latest radar trend, but I am hopeful the pattern of the last couple months is FINALLY changing. GOOD RIDDANCE!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE MCS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING HAS CREATED A MCV NEAR THE COAST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE...SO HAVE LEFT CHANCE POP IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON THE COASTAL ZONES AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND GOOD MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION. SOME OF THAT MAY ONCE AGAIN PROPAGATE UP
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR DUE TO OUTFLOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
BY THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SLIDE
WEST AND START TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA. A SLIGHT POP
WILL REMAIN ON THE COASTAL AND EASTERN ZONES DUE TO SEABREEZEACTIVITY
BUT FOR THE MOST PART...AREA WILL BE DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL. THE RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME SMALL POP DURING THAT TIME IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
BREAKING OFF AN EAST COAST TROF...TRAVELING WEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS HAS BEEN A COMMON PATTERN THE PAST MONTH.

[Ntxw]

DFW's record low-max for the day is 73F, officially 72 so far today.

[Brent]

Barely made 70 here on my phone... absolutely crazy.

Feels amazing... hopefully this is a sign the worst of summer is behind us. Good riddance.

[TheProfessor]

Is it wrong to hope for this scenario if I get the internship?
"Report SNINCR if snow depth increases by 0.5 inch to the nearest whole inch or more in the past hour, followed by amounts. The remark SNINCR is followed by the depth of increase in the last hour, a solidus, and the total depth of snow on the ground at the time of the report. For example, a snow depth increase of 2 inches in the past hour with a total depth on the ground of 10 inches would be coded "SNINCR 2/10"

[Ntxw]

Already at 75 so no record.

Here is a map of the tropical Pacific, it is lit up like a Christmas Tree. Latest IRI/CPC technical update is out and 100% of El Nino pretty much through spring of 2016, and it is a doozy event.



Unfortunately for Hawaii 93C could become a Hurricane (Kilo) and hit the Island chain, a rare event. Regardless, equatorial convection is consistent with El Nino as the OLR has the classic look of the subtropical jet. WPAC recurving typhoons are happening quite frequently, quantifying downstream cold fronts for us. Waiting to zone down when a significant heavy rain event will occur, not a clear signal yet but the hints are brewing. In due time, as we shift into the autumnal equinox the jet will strengthen. This fall and winter, as with most +ENSO events, cloudy days will start to outnumber sunny days.

Come October (the fall equivalent to May) we may see the greatest deviation from normal in terms of precipitation. We'll see timing is not always perfect. This is also the month we track the SAI, snow advance index, for any signs of the -AO.

*****
Also I'm going to change a little bit the timing we take to shift threads. To go along with the NWS and how data is tracked lets stick to moving from thread to thread via the trimonthly periods. Example, posting in fall threads SON (Sept-Oct-Nov); DJF, MAM etc. Anyone feel this won't be convenient or problematic feel free to PM me. Also I'm working on maybe doing more polls this winter such as guessing snowfall ranges and temperature anomalies for select Texas cities, just an idea right now but could be fun to see guesses.

[SeGaBob]

Ntxw, do you see any changes in store for the Southeast?
It hasn't been overly hot (low to mid 90s here) but the humidity each day is ridiculous. Thanks in advance