Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 4/24/15

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

NWS Norman:

FRIDAY MAY HOLD THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
WEEK...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE TO BELIEVE. THE GFS
WOULD INDICATE A RAPID DRYLINE SURGE...DRY SLOTTING MUCH OF THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND RESULTING IN THE
GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE EUROPEAN...HOWEVER...SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DRYLINE...AND WOULD FAVOR A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DOWN
THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS. EVERYONE WHO IS ANYONE SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA BECOME AVAILABLE...AND THE
SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

This morning's SPC update:

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SHARPLY ON FRIDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF MOVING AN NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MOVES A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
CNTRL PLAINS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WHILE THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH WOULD MEAN A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT IN FROM
NORTH TX NWD INTO SRN KS. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SRN PLAINS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES. AT THIS POINT...THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS TOO GREAT TO ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY.

[RL3AO]

Friday has some big potential especially if that ejecting trough slows down just a bit.

[EF-5bigj]

It will intresting to watch this evolve.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Day 3 Enhanced risk; I think we will see a southeastward extension of that risk area in later outlooks.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL TO ERN KS AND WRN
MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND SOME
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
BACKED SELY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS SCNTRL AND NRN KS.
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 F ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SAT FOR SALINA AND EMPORIA KS SHOW
MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40
KT OF 0-6 K SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SRN AND ERN KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET PASSES OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. THE
SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD INTO MO DURING THE EVENING AND MAY REACH THE MID MS
VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM CNTRL TX EWD
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EAST TX AND LA DURING THE DAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX
SWD ACROSS EAST TX...LA AND INTO WRN MS.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FRIDAY FOR MONROE LA EWD TO THE MS
RIVER SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION COULD ALSO ORGANIZE INTO LINES AS STORMS CONGEAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
VEERED TO THE SSW WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES IN PLACE ABOVE
850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY IF A
COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH
SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 04/22/2015

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's been a while since we've seen such a strong upper-level jet transect a severe weather risk area like what is expected Friday. I don't think we're going to see a massive outbreak -- questions concerning moisture quality, instability, and a *relatively* weak low level jet should preclude that -- but I do think a good number of tornadoes will be possible.



I will likely have to expand this topic to include Saturday, as it appears a significant risk will exist across portions of the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South.

[EF-5bigj]

Everyone is talking like Friday will be a big day and maybe Saturday for parts of Dixie Alley.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SPC Day 2 outlook:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL TO EAST
TX INTO NRN LA AND SRN AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS TO WRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL TX...WRN
KS...CNTRL TO ERN NEB...SRN IA...THE MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND
CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE-LENGTH PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE CONUS
FRIDAY AND FEATURE A LOWER LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SPEED MAX MOVING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE INITIAL INFLUENCE OF
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER ERN TX INTO THE OZARKS WILL WANE DURING THE
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER N-CNTRL TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY WILL ADVANCE NWD OVER OK/KS AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MIGRATES EWD INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SAMPLED THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN WILL ADVECT NWD ON SLY FLOW INTO THE
ARKLATEX DURING THE PERIOD. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING PERHAPS PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AS THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. THE INFLUENCE OF MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN PORTION OF THIS REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. ISOLD-SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS TX...POSING A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND RISK INITIALLY. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE AND ACCOMPANY
SUPERCELLS AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING. FEWER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE RED RIVER WHERE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE THREAT.

FARTHER E...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GRADUAL MOISTENING COUPLED
WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING SEEM TO FAVOR A CORRIDOR OF TSTM ACTIVITY
FROM NERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. AN EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS
MAY MATERIALIZE DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN TX
AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS POSING AN ISOLD SEVERE RISK.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
INCREASED MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AREA OF
MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ DEVELOPING BY MID
AFTERNOON. DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND E OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
THREAT. THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS POSSIBLE.

..SMITH.. 04/23/2015

[EF-5bigj]

Given how it's coming together does it look like there will be significant tornadoes?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Given how it's coming together does it look like there will be significant tornadoes?

Conditional threat today. Morning convection across Texas is throwing a wrench into the forecast as far as destabilization is concerned. The 13z SPC outlook maintained a 10% hatched tornado risk across the region (and removed the one across Kansas), but I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped it. Convection-allowing models tend to suggest storms that form will congeal quickly.

If by any chance we can see a sustained supercell, I wouldn't be surprised at a strong tornado.

SPC Day 1:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX ENE INTO SRN
AR/NRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD
AREA...FROM KS SSE TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB SSE TO THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF CST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER N CNTRL MEX/SW NM CONTINUES NE TO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE...AND INTO ERN KS EARLY SAT...WHILE UPSTREAM
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE INTO CA. THE SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN THE NM
DISTURBANCE AND YIELD A BELT OF ENHANCED WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT A SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVE...WITH THE LOW CONTINUING NE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY
SAT. IN RESPONSE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY WNW-ESE
ACROSS WRN OK/N TX AND SRN LA WILL ADVANCE N/NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ITS POLEWARD NWD MOTION WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORM CLUSTERS AND CLOUDS OVER ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED IN THIS REGION BY
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING STORM COMPLEXES...DIFFUSE NATURE
OF WARM FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF THICK MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM NM UPR TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN SIDE OF N TX CONVECTIVE
BAND...AND UPLIFT ALONG WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE
VICINITY...SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
IN CNTRL TX...WHERE INTERSECTION OF EWD-ACCELERATING DRY LINE WILL
ASSIST IN LIFTING PARCELS TO THE LFC. STORMS MAY THEN FORM AND/OR
INTENSIFY A BIT LATER EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. GIVEN 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW
AOA 1.75 INCHES/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL
COMPLEXES WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND
TORNADOES. GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVE/TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING A CONTINUING SVR THREAT
EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY SAT.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA LIKELY WILL EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
PLNS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WHERE SFC HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME ASPECTS OF
THE SITUATION ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A ROUGHLY SW-NE DIAGONAL AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS. BUT THE
SFC LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THE STRONGEST MID-UPR LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STORMS FARTHER S...AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCLEAR ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS...POCKETS OF ENHANCED
BUOYANCY/CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...INTO EARLY TNGT.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SPC's Day 2 outlook:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK TO THE
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS TO CNTL FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST REGION.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...

BAJA PENINSULA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE MS
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE
ORDER OF 80KT...IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS AR TO NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEAR 90M SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH OF THE SPEED MAX ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION WITH
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL DRAPE ITSELF FROM SRN IL...INTO ERN KY.

SUBSTANTIAL WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAW A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/DRY SLOT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SRN MO/AR REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY MID-DAY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO...SWD INTO AR. STRONG
HEATING EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-MORNING MCS THAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTED WITHIN VEERED FLOW REGIME SUCH THAT MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONGLY SHEARED PARAMETER FIELDS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS KY AND TN SHOULD EASILY ROTATE AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE SUCH THAT
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.


...GULF COAST REGION...

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE
MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST THINKING IS A
SUBSTANTIAL EARLY MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GULF
STATES/TN VALLEY REGION WITH A TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED SWWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THIS REGION BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IT/S NOT REAL
CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN GA. GREATEST RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NORTH.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015

NWS Huntsville:

ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN DEPARTS TO THE
EAST ON SAT. AM KEEPING SKY COVER AS CLOUDY...BUT A FEW BREAKS DO
APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER SAT MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
RAISE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. THIS WARMING WILL RESULT IN
GREATER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITIES. VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES ALSO SHOW CAPES RISING INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE
WITH SIMILARLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE NUMBERS TOO. HELICITY VALUES WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...AKA 0-1KM NUMBERS BETWEEN 250-450
M/S AT DAYBREAK TO 150-250 IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH BULK SHEAR
NUMBERS STAYING ABOVE 50KT (MOSTLY 60-75KT 0-6KM) IT IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM MODE APPEARS
TO BE CELLULAR AS OPPOSED TO QLCS. SUCH STRONG SHEAR NUMBERS OF
COURSE MEANS DAMAGING WINDS...AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 9000FT
COULD BRING LARGE HAIL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS TOO. A TORNADO
THREAT REMAINS TOO. PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN AN
`ENHANCED` AREA IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY-2...WITH A
CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER TORNADO RISK. TIMING OF THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FROM LATE SAT MORNING TO THE EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER DUSK SAT AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NWS Atlanta:

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

NWS Nashville:

SEVERE WEATHER A GOOD BET FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH AN 80 KNOT SPEED MAX NOSING INTO THE MID STATE BY
NOON SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE KICKS RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE MID STATE FROM ABOUT NOON THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW
RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX...ALONG WITH STRONG THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITIES SUCH AS SURFACE LI`S OF -7...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMBING TO > 2K. SURFACE TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES BUT AIR MASS DOES DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF SUPER CELLS. THERE IS A CAP THAT
FORMS AROUND 21Z BUT WITH STRONG FORCING NOT LIKELY TO HINDER
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAVE CONCERN FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.
BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE FROM
ABOUT NOON THROUGH 8 OR 9PM SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER IN TERMS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSITIONING INTO SUPER
CELLS...SO FOLKS NEED TO STAY ESPECIALLY ALERT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SHORT WAVE WORKS EAST OF MID STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COLD FRONT
STILL HANGING BACK INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DOESN`T CLEAR PLATEAU UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
SO KEPT A FEW SHOWERS IN FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALONG
PLATEAU FOR EARLY SUNDAY.

[Bunkertor]

1630z outlook

SPC AC 241632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES.

THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...KS AREA...
A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 04/24/2015

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1639Z (6:39PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX. WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR. THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31300105 31960110 33050017 33939698 33929603 33089545
31899594 31399791 31170005 31300105

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241653Z - 241830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUALLY INCREASING STORMS/SEVERE RISK EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE TYR /TYLER TX/ VICINITY AND
APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...AS MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE GULF COAST HAS INCREASED
INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SOME ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ATTM...AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS A BIT WEAK...SELY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR/N OF THE REMNANT FRONT LYING W-E ROUGHLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29659387 29609444 30079470 30469443 30729407 31029321
30559196 30309094 29179114 29659387

[Bunkertor]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 99
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHING THE SABINE
RIVER SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
POLK LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...GRAMS/MEAD

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW DISCRETE STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF SAN ANGELO
TEXAS TO 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORSICANA TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 60%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241914Z - 242045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS THROUGH 21Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY SHOULD BE
LARGELY REMOVED. BROAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AND
EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SWRN KS TO LOWER 60S
FOR S-CNTRL KS ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
ARE PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A SUB-998 MB SFC LOW
ANALYZED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS WRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD
BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. THIS MAY
ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND
INCREASE THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39549937 39459847 39369809 39189779 38669795 37889831
37539843 37239859 37079933 37209977 37819998 38320050
38670128 38970189 39340172 39430118 39510000 39549937

[PDinKS]

Uh oh. I see blue sky and sunshine to the west. I better finish cleaning the basement......

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / NRN LA / FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242058Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORMS OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA INVOF A WARM FRONT-OUTFLOW
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA
REGIME OCCURRING ALONG A LLJ WHICH WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 40-50
KT IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.

WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC049-059-083-242145-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0010.150424T2056Z-150424T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 355 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF SILVER VALLEY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CROSS PLAINS AND COTTONWOOD AROUND 425 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE US-283 NEAR THE
COLEMAN-CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
KSC051-242145-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0014.150424T2116Z-150424T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
416 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 416 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF YOCEMENTO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HAYS AROUND 425 PM CDT.
CATHERINE AROUND 445 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9943 3896 9950 3909 9926 3893 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 235DEG 11KT 3895 9940

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN