First Freeze Predictions. Deadline by midnight 10/31/15

[Scott Patterson]

I predict that our first freeze happened on August 20. We had one on July 30 as well, but the NWS uses that date as a late freeze.

[northjaxpro]

I predict that our first freeze happened on August 20. We had one on July 30 as well, but the NWS uses that date as a late freeze.

I addressed this earlier in this thread, which I will post below:

WeatherGuesser wrote:

By 10/31, many will have already had their first freeze.

Maybe in some areas of the Rockies and Northern States. However, the emphasis is to predict the first freeze pertaining to the region/ciity you are located. This includes many areas that typically may not see a freeze officially until we get into November and thereafter. So, I will stick by my deadline of Halloween. Thanks for those who have participated thus far. Still time to get predictions in. Join in!!


That post was last week. I see Scott you live in the heart of the Rockies, so of course those areas have seen their first freeze awhile back. Still, about 1/2 of the CONUS still have yet to experience their first freeze just yet. So, for many folks across the Southern tier of the CONUS and portions of the Mid Atlantic, still time to get in predictions before the deadline of Halloween. I appreciate the participation from some thus far.

Also, EURO runs continue to hint at a cooldown by Halloween for portions of the Eastern CONUS.

[northjaxpro]

I predict that our first freeze happened on August 20. We had one on July 30 as well, but the NWS uses that date as a late freeze.

I addressed this earlier in this thread, which I will post below:

WeatherGuesser wrote:

By 10/31, many will have already had their first freeze.

northjaxpro wrote:

Maybe in some areas of the Rockies and Northern States. However, the emphasis is to predict the first freeze pertaining to the region/ciity you are located. This includes many areas that typically may not see a freeze officially until we get into November and thereafter. So, I will stick by my deadline of Halloween. Thanks for those who have participated thus far. Still time to get predictions in. Join in!!

That post was last week. I see Scott you live in the heart of the Rockies, so of course some areas there saw their first freeze awhile back. Still, about 1/2 of the CONUS still have yet to experience their first freeze just yet. So, for many folks across the Southern tier of the CONUS and portions of the Mid Atlantic, still time to get in predictions before the deadline of Halloween. I appreciate the participation from some thus far.

Also, EURO runs continue to hint at a cooldown by Halloween for portions of the Eastern CONUS.

[Scott Patterson]

That post was last week. I see Scott you live in the heart of the Rockies, so of course those areas have seen their first freeze awhile back. Still, about 1/2 of the CONUS still have yet to experience their first freeze just yet.

I know, I was just joking.

Anyway, that map posted earlier is actually for the first 28F. I assume you are looking for the first 32F? If so, this would be the correct map:



It's actually closer to 80% of the CONUS that should see their first 32F by the end of October, at least in a normal year.

[northjaxpro]

yes Scott the first 32 degree reading. Thanks for the map as well. Actually as of right now, about 60% of the Continental USA have experienced their first freeze at this juncture.There are still areas of the Mid-Atlantic and all of the Deep South and Texas that have yet to experience their first freeze of the season. Alsk portions of the west in Pacific Time Zone.



We still have this final week to get in your predictions, especially for those of us who live in the southern tier of the CONUS that have not had their first freeze. Deadline is Halloween midnight. Join in!!

[vbhoutex]

I'll jump into this one with a November 21 dip to 32f at the official station at the airport. Overall for the Houston Metro area(Most areas that get a freeze more than once a year) I will go with December 5 and add the snow like talked about above.

[Scott Patterson]

There are still areas of the Mid-Atlantic and all of the Deep South and Texas that have yet to experience their first freeze of the season.

Since it has been such of warm fall in much of the nation, there are many places that haven't had their first frost yet, but should have.

For example, Denver Colorado, still hasn't had its first frost. Salt Lake City hasn't seen a low below 44F yet! Incredibly, Billings Montana hasn't even had a frost yet. Some places in Alaska haven't had their first frost either.

[asd123]

I predict that our first freeze happened on August 20. We had one on July 30 as well, but the NWS uses that date as a late freeze.

That is cool, a freeze in July? I guess it helps when you're at the same latitude as southern PA and at an elevation of 6100 feet

Anyway, I will drop by this thread to say that I don't have a prediction for the first freeze for cfla. The models are all signaling warm weather as far as the forecast can see. Even the Eastern US. will remain warmer than normal with few cool downs and no real cold air.

I can say that we won't have a freeze till until at least late November and possibly early December. Just don't know the unknown, anything can happen. Huge Siberian snowpack -AO, pacific warmth +PNA, Atlantic cold pool -NAO, Who knows what November will bring? I am a little disappointed at all this excessive warmth though. Cfla has not seen any colder temps than upper 50s low 60s, no cooldown in sight, and we are diving into November. By all accounts and my experience living here, we should have seen mid 50s in Orlando by the first week of November; None in sight.

[psyclone]

none.

[northjaxpro]

Hey asd123. I agree with your thoughts. This is why this year is a bit more challenging for several regions predicting when the first freeze will occur due to the strong El Nino. I talked about this in the opening post of this thread. It will be interesting to see how long the unseasonable warm weather will continue.As Scott pointed out, not only has there not been the first freeze experienced yet by many, but no frost as well. I have made my prediction ready, but I agree asd123 that we may go into December before seeing a freeze here in North Florida. I spoke of this very point in my opening post to begin this thread.

[northjaxpro]

Bumped. We have 3 more days to enter your thoughts and predictions for the regions which have yet to experience their first freezes. Give it your best educated shot folks!

[NDG]

Very challenging forecast, but I would guess that for my area it will not be until the end of January or early February that will have a threat for freezing weather, if at all

[northjaxpro]

Today is the last day to get in your predictions for those of you who live in the areas that have yet to receive their first freeze of the season. Thanks to all who have participated in this thread. Still time for more of you to get in your predictions. Deadline is midnight tonight.

[Ralph's Weather]

According to the GFS it looks like some Arctic air will finally invade the eastern 2/3s of the CONUS around mid month. If that does happen then looks like the first freeze for many in the South will come by the 20th.

[northjaxpro]

We will see Ralph. The way it has been here the last 10 days, I will believe it when it finally happens. Hope you are right becuase I predicted here that 11/23 would be when the first freeze occurs. We will see.

[NDG]

Still no major changes that I can see to the pattern, the GFS already dropped the solution it had yesterday of an Arctic invasion for the eastern US in its long range forecast, the CFSv2 shows above normal temps for the eastern US through at least December.

[Bizzles]

I'm going with 10/18 for Central NJ

Well the night of 10/18...i'm implying the wee early morning of the 19th.

Nailed it!!!

000
CDUS41 KPHI 200628
CLITTN


CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015


...................................

...THE TRENTON NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 19 2015...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1865 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 53 246 PM 83 1963 64 -11 53
MINIMUM 27R 549 AM 30 1986 43 -16 40
1974
AVERAGE 40 53 -13 47



With a record low no less!! WHAT DO I WIN??

[northjaxpro]

Congrats Bizzles on predicting the first freeze for your area. A lot of areas still has yet to see a frost, no less a freeze in most areas of the Deep South, outside of the NC mountains and a few spots in the Piedmont region. It is amazing that we have gone this long without at least a frost occuring in many spots in the Deep South west to Texas. This El Nino has really bought an extremely warm Fall to say the least.

It does not look as though my prediction of November 23 will come to fruition for my area experiencing a freeze. It looks more likely it will be deep into December before we see one here in Jax right now, if at all.

[WeatherGuesser]

According to the GFS it looks like some Arctic air will finally invade the eastern 2/3s of the CONUS around mid month. If that does happen then looks like the first freeze for many in the South will come by the 20th.

I've been monitoring the Model Mayhem on the Texas thread and marveling at how wrong it's been. Thinking there would be a cold spell around the 20th, the official forecast now shows temps in the 50s.

[Jag95]

For Mobile, AL I'll go with Nov 28.

If the forecast holds true, we should get down to around freezing Sunday night, 5 days ahead of my guess.