Texas Spring 2016

[Brent]

2007 1906 1973 all very acceptable analogs lol no real heat in any of them

[Tireman4]

I could live with a Year Without a Summer.....

[gboudx]

Same areas in SETX that got deluged yesterday are getting it again. Wow.

[Brent]

The 12z GFS has some heat beyond 300 hours, but fortunately it's beyond 300 hours...

Until then it's quite unsettled and below normal.

[Texas Snowman]

So for now, we all sit, wait and watch for that momentous occasion in 2016, when the summer's first sighting comes in for a...

...wait for it...

CAT FIVE IN THE GULF!!!!!

[Brent]

for now, let's just soak it up lol

The best
storm chances will be during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame
when a late season cold front moves through the region.

[Tireman4]

[quote="Texas Snowman"]:uarrow: So for now, we all sit, wait and watch for that momentous occasion in 2016, when the summer's first sighting comes in for a...

...wait for it...

CAT FIVE IN THE GULF!!!!! [/quote}


Oh no...not this again. Lol

[Brent]

The summer thread will start with this Hope it's a sign...

Also, it's mostly seasonal at the end of the run

[vbhoutex]

Same areas in SETX that got deluged yesterday are getting it again. Wow.

Yep we apparently really pissed someone off!! I can do without rain for quite a while thank you and I haven't even been hit near as hard as some of my friends and some of our members here in Houston.

WATERLOGGED!!!!

[Ntxw]

Very high cape day tomorrow will be muggy in the afternoon. Cap in place but if there are any storms (maybe a few) they will work with 5000+ cape. Low tornado threat but large damaging hail for any that form.

[Texas Snowman]

In light of that, as per Steve McCauley on Facebook a short while ago:

"It is going to be an uncomfortably humid day on Saturday with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across north Texas and heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. A dryline will move east out of west Texas and will be parked just west of the Metroplex by late afternoon. The atmosphere will be EXTREMELY unstable with 6000 units of energy available for storm development. Typically, only 1000 units or so is all that is needed for severe weather. I have not seen this amount of energy in the atmosphere in a long time, but the data have been predicting this setup for Saturday for over a week now.

Of concern is the fact by late afternoon, the cap will have gone away.

The only thing that might prevent an eruption of damaging hail and wind storms tomorrow is - you guessed it - subsidence!

The problem this time, however, is where will the sinking air come from? There will be no widespread morning showers and storms to produce that sinking air in the afternoon like we had today. We have to rely on the atmosphere as a whole to keep the current process of sinking air intact throughout the entire day tomorrow in order to shut the dryline down.

Check back tomorrow for an update. When the NWS sends up their weather balloon tomorrow morning at 7 AM, we will have a pretty good idea if the sinking air will be sufficient to keep the dryline quiet, or if it will fail and allow explosive development of thunderstorms during the heat of the day.

TeamSubsidence !"

[gpsnowman]

The humidity is just filthy today.

[Brent]

We have the first 100s on the DFW GFS meteogram June 10-11

It's been pretty consistently showing a heat wave in that timeframe for a day or two now

[Ntxw]

We have the first 100s on the DFW GFS meteogram June 10-11

It's been pretty consistently showing a heat wave in that timeframe for a day or two now

Later this week will be great though before any of that (if it's real). 70s for highs and 50s/60s in June is pretty anomalous. With a north wind it will be very comfortable.

[Brent]

Didn't expect a thunderstorm complex this morming

[TheProfessor]

Didn't expect a thunderstorm complex this morming

Sorry about that. I had asked God for some thunder last night as it is soothing and helps me sleep at night and I didn't want to be sleepy for work this morning.

[Shoshana]

Should we be replying in the Texas Spring or the Texas Summer posts? It still feels like Spring and Spring replies are more current, I'm just confused lol.

Hope that was English, getting ready for work and typing at the same time!

[srainhoutx]

I am becoming increasingly concerned that potions of our Region may see yet another heavy rainfall potential. The overnight guidance continues to advertise a combination of features that point to a very unsettled pattern. A potent upper trough will eject out of the Great Basin Tuesday with embedded disturbances rotating beneath the trough as well as the sub tropical jet. Another feature is something we have not seen lately and that is a very wet phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation progressing E from the Eastern Pacific into the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf. The blues and purples on the MJO charts below suggest rising air and very deep tropical moisture being entrained into an slow moving frontal boundary that will approach Tuesday into the rest of the upcoming work week. This Canadian front is expected to be rather strong, but likely will not make much progress of the Coast as the Upper Air dynamics are well to our NE in the Great Lakes. An Upper Ridge attempts to build to our West in California that may allow additional disturbance to ride S later in the work week toward Texas. All in all, the pesky and stormy pattern looks to persist into the coming week as we begin June. Stay Tuned folks, we are all tired of this very wet and flooding pattern that we just cannot seem to shake.

[rickybobby]

I was here on vacation for the great floods of 2015. I'm here in band era and I have to say it was worse than last year. I posted video on ksat 12's Facebook but the medina river at 3 am was insane. It covered all of the grass and the water went over the trees. The guests at my family's resort will be stuck for at least 3 days.

[Ntxw]

This year's rains and floods have been focused more towards southern and southeastern Texas closer to the I-10 corridor as opposed to last year where the maxima was along the Red River valley. You guys could use a break from all that rain.

The front will make it through the northern half of the state which will keep temps refreshingly cool for June. With that the heavy rains should focus to the south in the warmer/humid sector