STORM2K

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html It looks like it might be active in Dixie Alley again...Then again MS and the south have had a active tornado season. Mississippi is up to 25 tornados so far this year I believe.

I am afraid that Mississippi and the Deep South region in general will be under the proverbial gun beginning late Tuesday. The dynamics for severe thunderstorms and potential tornadoes really look to be impressive based on observing the latest models. The developing storm system across North Texas is forecast to intensify as it heads northeast, so helicities and vertical wind shear look very favorable for severe weather late Tuesday into Wednesday. We may be looking at quite a severe outbreak unfortunately. Folks across the Deep South region willl need to be on heightened alert the next 36-48 hours.

Looks like a big outbreak coming if this is right.

Wow 45% hatched that's pretty ominous. My local meterologist thinks it might go high risk in the hatched area.

This could be long day tomorrow in Alabama...

I'm concerned about strong/violent tornadoes in the hatched area. My local weather is now saying there is a potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes.

The low level wind shear is very very scary. I think the limited instability may keep it from being a Super Tuesday like outbreak, but I still think we'll see some strong tornadoes tomorrow.

RL3AO wrote:The low level wind shear is very very scary. I think the limited instability may keep it from being a Super Tuesday like outbreak, but I still think we'll see some strong tornadoes tomorrow.

Models always underestimate the instability in these situations...

New outlook the Moderate risk has sunk a little further south. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

This could be bad. One of my professors, who lives in Montgomery, said he might be taking a mini vacation today.

This is shaping up to be a significant and potentially life threatening event for the Deep South, especially SE LA, S MS, and Central and S AL. I hope eveyone remains weather aware this afternoon and through the night.

The timeline expected for this severe event.Stay safe those in the area.

TOR of 8s for the SE LA and MS.. updated this morning from Dr. Forbes.. don't recall ever seeing rating this high in this region... dang...

Lots of concern for south LA today especially just east of my area. Looks like the start of dangerous supercells we need to watch as they move onshore out of the Gulf.

Haven't seen it this high for the northern gulf coast

From Mobile AFD:



DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...A MIX OF LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TO A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SEVERE DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS CREATING HAZARDOUS AND TURBULENT FLYING CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS
THINKING WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG, LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. DYNAMIC VARIABLES
REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE THE FORCING, SHEAR AND HELICITY ALL POINT TO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WBZ HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 10000
FEET...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM WELL DEFINED BOW ECHOES
DRIVEN BY WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOLS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE LOW INSTABILITY PROJECTED BY THE GFS ML CAPES 200 TO
500 J/KG...PROBABLY WAY UNDER DONE...NAM PROJECTS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
EVEN IF THEY ARE LOW...GIVEN THE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HIGH SHEAR
AND INTENSE FORCING LITTLE`S NEEDED. THESE ARE VERY UNUSUAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF COAST AND AS A RESULT SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR
AREA AS A MODERATE RISK.

TIMING STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE BUT CURRENT THINKING PUTS THE RISK
OF SEVERE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE MID LEVEL CAP BREAKS
ALLOWING ALL THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT SOME...SHEAR
INCREASING...INSTABILITY INCREASING...DIVERGENCE ALOFT
INCREASING...COULD START SEEING DISCRETE SUPER CELLS OVER SOUTHEAST
MS AND SW AL MID THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND BY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. TIMING ON
THE SQUALL LINE IS A BIT SKETCHY AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL ORGANIZING
BUT BEST GUESS PUTS IT INTO OUR MS COUNTIES MID EVENING AND THROUGH
MOBILE AROUND 10 PM AND THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND WESTERN FL
COUNTIES A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
/08

TOR WW 0019

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0019.html

Tireman4 wrote:This could be bad. One of my professors, who lives in Montgomery, said he might be taking a mini vacation today.

Check that...he just sent an email. He is leaving until Thursday. Gracious.

From Birmingham, AL AFD

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS. A VERY STRONG 500 MB CHANNELED JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND WILL MAKE A HARD
LEFT TURN TODAY...CARVING OUT ONE OF THE MOST...IF NOT THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH I HAVE EVER SEEN AT SUCH A LOW
LATITUDE. VERY ANOMALOUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BELOW 990MB IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI WITH INCREDIBLE WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS BY 00Z WED.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AROUND
THE 500MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ALL THE WHILE A VERY STRONG ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...SOME
OF THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH TEXAS HEAT AND AN EML MUCH LIKE IS FORECAST
TODAY. THIS EML SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
EXTENDING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF TO DISRUPT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT IS MOST
CONCERNING IS THE CONSENSUS THAT A 700MB DRYLINE/FRONT... MARKED
BY A SHARP THETA-E DROP AND ORIGINATING FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU...WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AT THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BECOME INTENSE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE
A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF
70-90 KT NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE AXIS SHOULD YIELD
A BAND OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS
ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY STRONGLY FAVORS A
THREAT FOR STRONG AND LONG- TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG.

87/GRANTHAM

A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KTS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE AFTER 6 PM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A POSSIBLE START TIME OF 4 PM FOR ANY
CELLS THAT GET GOING AHEAD OF THE MAIN THREAT BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE MESOSCALE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS HAS THE MAIN ARC OF SUPERCELLS REACHING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 6 PM...ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 10PM-
MIDNIGHT...AND EXITING THE STATE BY 3-4 AM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES
INDICATING SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 2-3+ INCHES OF RAIN...HAS ALSO
LED TO SATURATED SOILS. THEREFORE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
LOW...AND WITH PW VALUES OF 1.3-1.4 INCHES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
SO FAR BEEN LOWER. ALSO...AS 925 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS
TONIGHT AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO OUR NORTHWEST...STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS SUSTAINED 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN STORMS
TONIGHT.

Starting to wonder if this could be a bust overall. Coastal MCS has developed which will choke the northward movement of instability/moisture.