From Mobile Al NWS AFD
00
FXUS64 KMOB 311809 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
109 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.
&&
.UPDATE...PERSISTENT LONG LIVED SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN ESCAMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH COUNTIES IN AL...AND INTO
WESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY AL AS OF 1245 PM CDT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AL AND THE INTERIOR NW FL PANHANDLE. THE
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT STILL
CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR...WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
HRRR`S INSISTENCE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP THERE. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
INLAND...WILL GO AHEAD AND LET TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUE UNTIL
EXPIRATION AT 2 PM FOR NORTHWEST FL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AL. THE
WATCH WAS DISCONTINUED OVER SOUTHEAST MS WHERE CONVECTION HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED. THE LATEST RAP INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHERE
WE WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT. /21
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF BREAKS TO VFR AT TIMES OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND ADJACENT
INTERIOR NW FL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR BEFORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIALLY RE-
DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING INTO LATE
TONIGHT. /21
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ631-632-
650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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