STORM2K

Well warm up cancel on the guidance. More bitter cold air on the way. If you are north of I-40 you may not thaw out until May.

Here's an animation of the 6AM temps as predicted by the euro, starting this Wednesday and going to next Wednesday.

Trough is coming in way stronger than the ensembles predicted, but with a fairly progressive pattern the long range still looks decent for the east.

This morning's 6Z GFS shows a massive 1052 mb Arctic High dropping South into North Dakota coming this Monday 1/15/18.

The arctic air just keeps reloading over North America and dropping south with our persistent pattern.

It is a progressive pattern, DC is close to 70 on Friday



And the cold does not hang around long enough to change the overall average, at least up here

Looks like tropical tidbits added ICON which includes 2M temperature fields as well as MSLP precip (rain/frozen). Does anybody know what ICON is? Looks like it is a German model. I have heard of it in some of the NHC tropical discussions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=138

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/951802165890347008

PV anomaly is dropping into the eastern Conus next week. Bitter cold air.

Bets on February? CPC isn't showing much, but the Texans are hinting at something very unpleasant.

Likely coldest air of the season yet as the continent goes into deep freeze



The key is the MJO. The holy grail for February is amplitude into phases 7-8-1-2 for the US. Reconstructed analogs almost always features significant cold blasts for that month with corresponding MJO signal.

Ntxw wrote:Likely coldest air of the season yet as the continent goes into deep freeze



The key is the MJO. The holy grail for February is amplitude into phases 7-8-1-2 for the US. Reconstructed analogs almost always features significant cold blasts for that month with corresponding MJO signal.

Luckily I don't think Toronto will be getting the coldest air of the season, that map puts us at average and the coldest air of the season would be highs below 0.

Two week forecast (out through the 9th as of this morning) I've been watching has been sliding towards cooler, but not abnormally cold. 'Mean' daily temperatures move upwards now also by about 5 degrees from mid-January to mid-February, so 'colder than normal' may not be as cold as it was for the last blast..

I don't believe the 2 week euro in the winter, we will see. So far looks like slightly below normal cold for our area. I liked the last round of snow, enough to look good but not so much as to cause any big issues.

Current forecast I'm seeing out through the 11th shows nothing extreme. A glancing blow this Thursday, Friday and Saturday, then moderation to 'normal' temperatures. Is this 'extreme cold' the Texans are talking about supposed to be later in the month?

Folks, this is a bit of an experiement that we're hoping catches on. We've created a shadow topic In "USA & Caribbean Weather" for this thread that was originally in the "Winter Weather" forum, but has been dormant for nearly 6few years!

What we're shooting for is to eliminate the cross-posting in the 'Global Models..'" thread in "Talkin' Tropics" for low-latitude cyclones forecast to impact the southern tier of the U.S. that clearly aren't going to become either subtropical or even subtropical. We'd like to encourage people in both forums to post medium to long range model output (through days 16) for extratopical cyclones or fronts that are forecast to impact larger portions of the U.S., especially outside of tropical cyclone season. However, posts certainly can be made any time of the year. For specific impacts of these systems in areas where threads already exist, feel free to make posts there.

We'd encourage any feedback about this idea. Thanks.

AJC3 wrote:Folks, this is a bit of an experiement that we're hoping catches on. We've created a shadow topic In "USA & Caribbean Weather" for this thread that was originally in the "Winter Weather" forum, but has been dormant for nearly 6few years!

What we're shooting for is to eliminate the cross-posting in the 'Global Models..'" thread in "Talkin' Tropics" for low-latitude cyclones forecast to impact the southern tier of the U.S. that clearly aren't going to become either subtropical or even subtropical. We'd like to encourage people in both forums to post medium to long range model output (through days 16) for extratopical cyclones or fronts that are forecast to impact larger portions of the U.S., especially outside of tropical cyclone season. However, posts certainly can be made any time of the year. For specific impacts of these systems in areas where threads already exist, feel free to make posts there.

We'd encourage any feedback about this idea. Thanks.

Okay, you asked LOL. This tweak makes total sense to me; I think that the usefulness and benefit of having a Global Model Thread for Winter within the USA & Caribbean section will eventually be realized over time. I think it's just a matter of members/guests simply getting used to seeing this thread in the USA & Caribbean Weather section as a result of particularly newsworthy or especially significant Winter/Spring weather events that sporadically occurs during this seasonal period. I think that most people are less inclined to keep up with average "Winter weather", other then the occasional severe or major weather event that might just happen to occur during the Winter (or Spring) season. Naturally, I think overall interest for viewing this thread by most will tend to be limited to only the more significant severe or significant weather impact events like flooding, tornado outbreak, drought conditions, or extreme or unusual temperature or snow events for any given area. Having the thread under USA Weather seems to provide a better point of reference for all newsworthy or Global model interest (outside of the Talkin' Tropics section) rather then buried under Winter Weather. Reason being because I just don't think many have the same level of ongoing interest in the weather within the weather months, and also think most others would not consider to reference Global Model forecasts simply because their less frequent interest outside of Spring/Summer happens to fall within the generally ignored Winter month period.

I think that the Global Model thread within the Talkin' Tropics section will always garner far more attention and banter simply given the nature of threat AND size of area that hurricanes might pose to any coastal region. That's okay though. That fascination or concern extends beyond the average "weather nerd" but has implications to the broader public, various industries, as well as local government as well. Just at the hobbyist level alone, those who share an interest in the tropics not only look for and follow the inevitable "model storms" that CMC or GFS might spit out on one or more particular model runs, but many view the Global Model runs for hints of Pattern or Climate change that might impact the prime time of hurricane season, or even present time conditions to near term forecasts for SST's, SAL conditions, steering winds, surface pressures, upper level shear etc. Lets face it, there just doesn't seem to be the same level of public curiosity or interest in Winter long wave pattern change, garden variety cold fronts or general winter time temperature variation unless those weather events were anticipated to be rather unusual, extreme or perceived as particularly threatening or impactful to themselves.

In summery a Global Model Thread for Winter within the broader USA & Caribbean regions is a logical and good idea. A suggestion would be to "clean up" or archive the many other seldom viewed threads that fall under the USA & Caribbean Weather, otherwise THIS thread might easily become "lost amongst the trees" within a vast forest of seldom viewed USA Weather forum threads/topics that exist there. Finally, I realize that this one last suggestion lies entirely out of place within this USA/Caribbean Winter Global Model thread but..... tbh, I'd fully remove the Winter Weather Forum altogether from the main S2K Index Page. If one clicks that Forum, one lands in a virtual graveyard of dead threads with perhaps only 3 or 4 threads among hundreds that contain any posts during all of 2023. Heck, I didn't even realize until now that a thread existed for ENSO Conditions (for Winter) because it was so far down that list of topic threads. I think it just makes more sense for S2K to have a link to Winter Weather only "after" one clicks on USA & Caribbean Weather (as well as within the Global Weather) forum. This way historical reference to those many dated threads may still be preserved, but also would eliminate new users from immediately clicking a link that leaves them feeling like they've accessed a dark hole that few others ever enter. More importantly, eliminating the Winter Weather link from the S2K Board Index would alleviate the risk of others to conclude the incorrect perception of S2K as some dated Internet Island that few seldom reference.

It might be nice if this or something like this caught on so we can see model runs for places around the country rather than just one or two regions. Maybe year-round instead of just winter? (Excluding tropical weather model runs of course.)