2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#21 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:04 pm

FXUS64 KBMX 191802
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
102 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The warm front has moved through much of Central AL this morning.
The frontal boundary can be denoted in the ground clutter from
KBMX. Behind this warm front, we`ve been able to mix out a lot of
the stratus that had been hanging around this morning resulting in
clearing skies and sunshine. Here at EET, we`ve warmed to 75 over
65 with the dewpoints mixing out more (dewpoint was 67 an hour ago
or so). To our west, a boundary has moved through MS and is
entering western portions of Central AL. This boundary has been
able to tap into the instability in the wake of the warm front,
sparking some convection. This is expected to continue to move
eastward across the area, initiating some thunderstorms over the
next few hours. The 16z HRRR initialized well, and has a few of
these thunderstorms developing through about 4-5pm CT. Severity of
these storms is uncertain. With increasing instability this
afternoon, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some of these storm
produce hail and gusty winds. The 18z special sounding from BMX
is showing right at 3000 J/kg CAPE, but the LLJ is still further
west, closer to the dryline in MS, so the low level shear isn`t
impressive. Therefore, the tornado threat with these scattered
storms is limited.

The main concern remains for later this afternoon/evening and into
the nighttime hours. The dryline has moved across the MS river in
the past hour and will continue to push eastward. The higher
resolution models and convective-allowing models show a broken
line of individual cells developing along this dryline and moving
through AL. By this time, the LLJ will have moved into the area as
well, creating quite a bit of curvature in the forecast
hodographs. 0-3km SRH is expected to exceed 400 by 7pm (0-1km SRH
exceed 250) across much of North- Central AL, which is what led
to the increase to a Moderate Risk. Expected impacts remain very
similar to previous thinking - tornadoes (some may be strong),
large hail up to tennis ball sized, and damaging winds.

This line of storms will move from the northwest to southeast
through tonight and should move out of our area by the midnight to
2am timeframe.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#22 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:11 am

I'm back ! Belated Happy New Year ! :D
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#23 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:42 am

Bunkertor wrote:I'm back ! Belated Happy New Year ! :D



Bunk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#24 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:43 am

TUESDAY 3/20
Severe thunderstorms in east SC, southeast GA, north and central FL peninsula. TORCON - 4 north FL; 3 central FL, east SC; 2-3 southeast GA.

A warm front moves into northeast SC and a secondary surface low develops there, while a cold front moves across FL and an upper trough moves across the Southeast. A strong low-level westerly low-level jet gives strong wind shear, but surface winds may have veered to southwest, so there is a question about how many tornadoes will occur. Damaging winds in bow echoes are likely.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#25 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:44 am

000
FXUS62 KTBW 201200
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.AVIATION...
Low ceilings around 500-1000ft are the main concern this
morning, with some patchy MVFR to IFR fog also occurring.
Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area from north
to south, beginning late this morning and continuing through
the evening hours. Winds will be breezy with high gusts
through the day. Rain should move out and winds calm a bit
after 01z, with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 430 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
A strong cold front is on track to move south through the
Florida Peninsula today and tonight. Continued southwest low
level flow ahead of this front has brought surface dew
points up to the upper 60s and low 70s across the area,
leading to widespread fog/mist and low stratus across the
area early this morning. However, winds are breezy enough
to keep the fog from getting particularly dense, so
visibilities are generally expected to remain around 2
miles or greater through around sunrise.

With the moist airmass in place ahead of the front and
breezy winds aloft producing strong wind shear, numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the front and spread south through the area today. With such
strong shear and cool mid level temperatures, conditions
are in place for some of the storms to become severe, with
damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornados all
possible. Apart from the storms, a tight pressure gradient
along the frontal passage will also produce gusty winds
across the area this afternoon. As a result, a Lake Wind
Advisory is in effect for this afternoon into early this
evening for the entire area. In addition, the breezy onshore
flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents along area
beaches this afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will clear out from north to south
this afternoon through early this evening, with clearing,
but still breezy conditions filling in overnight.
Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday, with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s under sunny skies.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Broad troughing will remain across the eastern half of the
country as ridging builds over the west and then shifts
eastward through the end of the week. At the surface, high
pressure will build over the southeast through Thursday,
with a cool and dry air mass in place over Florida. Highs
will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s under sunny
skies.

As we head into Friday and the weekend, mid/upper-level
ridging will gradually build over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida as surface high pressure gets pushed out into the
Atlantic. This will lead to warming temperatures each day
through Sunday. Friday will still nice, with highs only a
few degrees above those for Thursday, but temperatures
continue to increase for both Saturday and Sunday, ending up
in the mid 80s across parts of the interior for Sunday.
This pattern is generally forecast to persist into the start
of next week ahead.

AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR ceilings and visibilities with isolated IFR
ceilings will continue overnight, with areas of IFR ceilings
expected to increase in coverage closer to sunrise. Showers
and thunderstorms will spread south into the Tampa Bay area
terminals during the morning hours, and into southwest
Florida during the afternoon hours, with gusty winds turning
to westerly. Showers and storms will clear out from north
to south during the late afternoon and early evening, but
breezy winds are expected to hold overnight.

MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase today across the coastal
waters ahead of an approaching cold front with numerous
thunderstorms and advisory level winds and seas spreading
across the area by this afternoon and evening. Winds will
turn to the northwest overnight behind the front, remaining
breezy through Wednesday morning before beginning to subside
through the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure with
then fill in Thursday through the weekend, with winds
holding around 15 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move south through the area today with
numerous thunderstorms and breezy winds, leading to high
dispersion values over the interior. Much drier air will
then fill in Wednesday, with critical humidity values expected
during the afternoon for much of the area.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 77 58 68 49 / 80 10 0 0
FMY 81 62 73 50 / 70 40 0 0
GIF 83 54 72 46 / 80 20 0 0
SRQ 76 61 69 51 / 80 10 0 0
BKV 79 52 68 40 / 80 10 0 0
SPG 78 59 68 53 / 80 10 0 0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
Wednesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
Sarasota-Pinellas.

Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-
Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal
Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 PM EDT Wednesday
for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs
to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...24/Hubbard
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#26 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:46 am

Damage at Jacksonville State University...

http://www.wvtm13.com/article/storms-le ... e/19487536
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#27 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:56 am

NWS SPC

@NWSSPC
8:01am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: over central/northern florida and coastal areas of georgia, south carolina and southern north carolina http://go.usa.gov/YWq5
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#28 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:47 am

NWS SPC

Verified account

@NWSSPC
24m24 minutes ago
More
9:23am CDT #SPC_Watch WW 17 TORNADO FL GA CW 201420Z - 202300Z, #flwx #gawx #cwwx, https://go.usa.gov/xQcEa
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#29 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:53 am

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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#30 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:54 am

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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#31 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:43 am

Jacksonville State University
9 hrs ·
Please do not come to campus to check out the damage. Many roads are impassible, street lights are out, and first responders are trying to do their jobs. Many key university personnel have not been able to report to campus. We are in emergency mode - protecting life, ensuring everyone is safe and accounted for, getting everyone shelter. We wont know the full extent of the property damage until the sun comes up. We have received numerous questions about when students will be allowed back in damaged residence halls. We are not able to answer that question right now. We will notify residents when and if that is possible. For now, we are focused entirely on search and rescue.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#32 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:32 am

Reed Timmer

Verified account

@ReedTimmerAccu
2h2 hours ago
More
Nearly all of Jacksonville State University is severely damaged. Spoke to a student who road out the #tornado in a bath tub. Thank god most students were off on spring break. Long-track wedge with huge terrain/orography influence on damage
@breakingweather
0:07
16 replies 144 retweets 159 likes
Reply 16 Retweet 144 Like 159 Direct message
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#33 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:59 pm

ENHANCED RISK has been DOWNGRADED to a SLIGHT RISK as of the latest SPC Outlook at 4 PM EDT.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:16 pm

Tornado Watch issued for for portions of
Western and central Louisiana
Southeast and east Texas
Coastal Waters


 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/979041723660857344




Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 22
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and central Louisiana
Southeast and east Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from NOON until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to become more common
across the watch area through the remainder of the afternoon,
offering damaging gusts, isolated large hail, and the potential for
a couple tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Palacios
TX to 25 miles north northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES and A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE and ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE and SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...Edwards
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#35 Postby NotSparta » Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:12 pm

Accidentally posted
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 09, 2018 5:37 am

So far 2018 is below average.

@splillo
Year-to-date, 2018 has the least number of tornado and severe watches issued by the SPC in recent history, with 38.

Interesting to note the distinctive cluster of reduced watch counts in the last 5 years.


Image

Image

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/983276764934885376


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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:45 am

@USTornadoes
Preliminary summary of the multi-day tornado event from April 13-15. Over two dozen tornadoes confirmed so far. We will update as numbers are finalized: https://bit.ly/2EQo8NY


Image

 https://twitter.com/USTornadoes/status/985874880800358400


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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:18 pm

The 2018 severe season so far is below average but is still relativly early and it can pick up fast to normal or above normal.

Image
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#39 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:33 pm

The southern jet stream has been suppressed for most of the time in 2018 so far since January, because of persistent upper level troughing pattern over the Eastern portions of the continent due to a prolonged negative North America Oscillation, in place since the beginning of March. It has only been within the past week or so in which we finally saw the southern jet become active, bringing some severe weather across the parts of Texas, eastward along the Gulf Coast into the Deep South.

Long range GFS still is hinting at potential strong ridging across Greenland, which if this manifests, would suggest that the -NAO could continue into the first week of May at least.

BTW, NWS Jax office mets are saying a possible low-end EF-1 twister which occurred in Camden County, GA on last Sunday. Many trees were reported down in Harriett's Bluff, about 40 miles north of downtown Jacksonville.
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Re: 2018 Severe Weather: Reports / Stats / Photos / Videos / Forecasts

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 16, 2018 10:19 am

So far the 2018 severe season has been below average.

Image
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