Texas Summer 2018

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1441 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:20 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:Latching onto something.

I noticed during a walk just now that the sun feels less intense, it's clearer in the sky, the clouds are more billowy, and it seems more Fall-like, even though it's near 100 degrees. It's subtle, but it's there.

I have a knack sometimes for noticing a difference in the weather if I step outside, whether it's less or more humid, or a couple degrees warmer or cooler. I notice more of it with moisture. I go outside and notice it seems really dry. I check humidity, it's 21%.

Or if it smells like rain and feels sticky in the morning, and the clouds are different, I check forecast, and there's a 50% chance of thunderstorms.

Wife gives me a hard time about it, like it's weird.lol It is a little odd, but I notice stuff like that, without trying.lol

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I mentioned the same thing to my wife yesterday. Even though it was 100, the atmosphere? seems different. The sun is definitely less intense and everything just has a different look and feel to it.


EXACTLY! :) Cool to know of someone else who notices this.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1442 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:48 pm

:uarrow:

Yukon? Weatherdude? Do we need to send law enforcement out to do welfare checks on both of you?! :lol:

It's still a blast furnace out there! I have this image of wxman57 in my head with his finger on the up arrow button of the air system, cackling loudly!
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1443 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:02 pm

Peaked out at 97 for DFW. Climo makes pushing 100 a bit tougher, thank goodness.

We do need to watch the gulf if the eastern ridge is prevalent. That sends return flow from the Gulf which is usually a sign of some rains, especially southern tier of the state.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1444 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:16 pm

End of the Euro was sure interesting down on the coast
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1445 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:33 pm

Brent wrote:End of the Euro was sure interesting down on the coast


Watch tonight’s 0z run be back to showing nothing lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1446 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:14 pm

Go! Go! Go!

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1447 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:20 pm

What in the world is up with the NAM?

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1448 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:01 am

first legit cold front around September 10th on the 0z GFS(and roughly the same as the 18z)... bring it on :lol: maybe some highs in the 70s? :cold:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1449 Postby Haris » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:05 am

the eps weeklies are pretty damn nice through late sep ! wetter anomalies generally speaking and they've performed quite well this year imo :D :D :D
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1450 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:38 pm

The ensembles are a little more promising that the 12Z individual GFS. I really wish it would do something substantial.
:yesno:
Taking a stroll out after lunch on the grassy vacant areas, it's dry out there. "Crunch" with every step.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1451 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:08 pm

000
FXUS64 KEWX 281947
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Hot conditions continue across South Central Texas this afternoon.
Better moisture is confined across the far eastern CWA. HRRR
depicting isolated convection developing through the late afternoon
into portions of Lavaca, Fayette, Lee, and Bastrop counties before
dissipating around sunset.

A weak inverted mid level trough, beneath the ridge to the northeast,
will move inland through the eastern half of the CWA on Wednesday.
Deeper moisture values are progged to reach as far inland as the I-35
corridor, with precipitable water values progged near 1.8-2.0 inches.
This should allow for convection to develop during the afternoon
through sunset across central and eastern areas of the CWA.
Coverage
should overall remain isolated given weak nature of the mid level
forcing and sea-breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
A flat ridge will become established Thursday through Saturday near
and north of the CWA. Models linger moisture and low chances for
isolated afternoon convection across mainly far eastern areas of the
CWA during this time. Otherwise warm temperatures continue to be
above normals.

Models continue to indicate slightly better chances for rainfall
early next week as a deeper fetch of moisture and inverted mid level
from the Gulf of Mexico move west, beneath the ridge to the north of
northeast.
There is still some uncertainty on exact placement of the
ridge and thus uncertainty with westward extent inland this moisture
reaches, so at this time will continue to keep PoPs in 20-30% range.
Temperatures do appear to trend slightly cooler.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1452 Postby Haris » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:18 pm

Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .

Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!

Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1453 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:21 pm

Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .

Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!

Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead


Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1454 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:44 pm

I’m really surprised by the qpf forecast in my area. For the next 7 days we have a 40-60% chance of rain and we’re only in the one inch zone.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1455 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .

Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!

Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead


Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave :lol:


Our heatwave down here can't get much worse than it has been already.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1456 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .

Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!

Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead


Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave :lol:
heatwave? in late September?
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1457 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:49 pm

18z GFS with either a wave or weak depression into Texas.

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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1458 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:50 pm

Cpv17 wrote:18z GFS with either a wave or weak depression into Texas.

Image
We need some more rain in DFW.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1459 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:10 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .

Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!

Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead


Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave :lol:
heatwave? in late September?


Harvey/Irma did that last year seems like Gulf storms have a downside
Last edited by Brent on Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2018

#1460 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:23 pm

Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave :lol:
heatwave? in late September?


Irma did that last year seems like Gulf storms have a downside

We had Harvey last year.
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