STORM2K

the end of the Euro looks like a cold front is coming

I like the trend, especially the ECMWF.

My house has not reached 100 since last week, much less 103. So my streak already broke.
Camp Mabry tends to be hotter than everybody else 95 percent of the time, and it's next to MOPAC. Anyway, could be some influences there with nearby asphalt and concrete IMO.

ECMWF


GFS


Extended

If the EPS verify , our last 100s of the season are this weekend in Austin. 90-91 beyond that thru mid sep

Haris wrote:If the EPS verify , our last 100s of the season are this weekend in Austin. 90-91 beyond that thru mid sep

Good riddance!

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Haris wrote:If the EPS verify , our last 100s of the season are this weekend in Austin. 90-91 beyond that thru mid sep

Good riddance!

Yeah don't let the door hit ya on the way out.

81% of the State seeing some sort of drought condictions......we need some serious rains this Fall and Winter!

Got to love the 12z GFS, keeps the wave moving across the Gulf weak and pumps a steady stream of moisture into Texas.

Euro looks pretty active too and keeps the Gulf thing also weak

Brent wrote:Euro looks pretty active too and keeps the Gulf thing also weak

Weak is better. It keeps the moisture going, instead of getting sucked up by a strong hurricane, leaving the outskirts around it bone dry.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Brent wrote:Euro looks pretty active too and keeps the Gulf thing also weak

Weak is better. It keeps the moisture going, instead of getting sucked up by a strong hurricane, leaving the outskirts around it bone dry.

True. The only thing Harvey brought North Texas was clouds and slightly cooler air.

gpsnowman wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Brent wrote:Euro looks pretty active too and keeps the Gulf thing also weak

Weak is better. It keeps the moisture going, instead of getting sucked up by a strong hurricane, leaving the outskirts around it bone dry.

True. The only thing Harvey brought North Texas was clouds and slightly cooler air.

and then a heat wave after... no thanks

Brent wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:
Weak is better. It keeps the moisture going, instead of getting sucked up by a strong hurricane, leaving the outskirts around it bone dry.

True. The only thing Harvey brought North Texas was clouds and slightly cooler air.

and then a heat wave after... no thanks

Yeah, it usually leaves central and south Texas hot and dry (if it heads towards Beaumont or points east). But as far as now, I'm seeing a wetter pattern shift on the horizon.

Really nice!

Today is the last day to post in this thread. I will open the Fall thread at midnight marking the end of 2018 meteorological Summer and begin meteorological Fall.

I don't know if this has been discussed yet or not but is there any correlation between all of the hurricanes and storms in the Pacific this year and the possible developing El Nino?

Yukon Cornelius wrote:I don't know if this has been discussed yet or not but is there any correlation between all of the hurricanes and storms in the Pacific this year and the possible developing El Nino?

There is a strong correlation between Pacific (both West Pacific and East Pacific) and El Nino. Not only that, El Nino tends to promote more intense Hurricanes/Typhoons in larger numbers due to warming the Pacific Ocean and decreased wind shear. 2015 is a prime example of being the second busiest EPAC season, creating one of the wettest Falls on record amid a Super El Nino. You could probably name significantly wet Falls and 9/10 it will probably be due to an active EPAC and an El Nino.

As for Texas the East Pacific hurricane season correlates to rainfall patterns in the Fall. During El Nino, there is an increase of systems that gets caught up and re-curves into Western Mexico and subsequently sends moisture towards Texas. Part of the reason why October is often the second wettest month for many in the state is aided by this phenomenon.

During La Nina the opposite tends to occur. Pacific hurricanes are depressed thus summer heat tends to extend well into the fall with lower rain prospect. La Nina has a history of extended drought beyond summer in Texas. La Nina however can increase Atlantic activity (such as last season) and bring anomalous singular events such as Harvey but is usually followed by drought.

**note this is mostly true for the inland areas of the state.

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:I don't know if this has been discussed yet or not but is there any correlation between all of the hurricanes and storms in the Pacific this year and the possible developing El Nino?

There is a strong correlation between Pacific (both West Pacific and East Pacific) and El Nino. Not only that, El Nino tends to promote more intense Hurricanes/Typhoons in larger numbers due to warming the Pacific Ocean and decreased wind shear. 2015 is a prime example of being the second busiest EPAC season, creating one of the wettest Falls on record amid a Super El Nino. You could probably name significantly wet Falls and 9/10 it will probably be due to an active EPAC and an El Nino.

As for Texas the East Pacific hurricane season correlates to rainfall patterns in the Fall. During El Nino, there is an increase of systems that gets caught up and re-curves into Western Mexico and subsequently sends moisture towards Texas. Part of the reason why October is often the second wettest month for many in the state is aided by this phenomenon.

During La Nina the opposite tends to occur. Pacific hurricanes are depressed thus summer heat tends to extend well into the fall with lower rain prospect. La Nina has a history of extended drought beyond summer in Texas. La Nina however can increase Atlantic activity (such as last season) and bring anomalous singular events such as Harvey but is usually followed by drought.

**note this is mostly true for the inland areas of the state.

I assumed it had to be tied together, just wasn't sure. Thanks for the explanation. Hopefully we can get that wet fall to set up and fall into place.

Looking nice!



000
FXUS64 KEWX 310832
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
332 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
The persistent upper level ridge of high pressure will stick around
for two more days, centered around the ArkLaTex for Friday and
Saturday. Friday will likely be the warmest day through the middle of
next week with highs reaching into the upper 90s one more time before
the synoptic weather pattern begins to change tomorrow. With flow
still coming off of the Gulf of Mexico another round of sea breeze
showers and storm will be possible for the Coastal Plains Friday
afternoon and evening. These chances should be limited to areas south
of a La Grange to Gonzales to Floresville line.

Saturday will see a change in the synoptic weather pattern across the
CONUS. A trough will slowly move across the West, with the trough
axis near the Four Corners region by Saturday. This will force the
ridge to the east with the ridge axis setting up over the Carolinas
rather than over Texas. Without the ridge overhead afternoon highs
will begin to moderate slightly. In addition, sea breeze activity
could make it farther inland during the day on Saturday. Any of these
isolated storms could bring brief gusty winds in addition to a brief
downpour that could help cool temperatures further. While areas west
of I-35 will remain dry through Saturday, the high moving to the east
will open up the Gulf of Mexico and lead to better chances of rain in
the long term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Texas will be sandwiched between the high centered over the
Carolinas and the Northeast and the slow moving trough through much
of next week. This will allow disturbances to move east to west
across the Gulf of Mexico and also increase moisture flowing into
Central Texas. While there are still model discrepancies from run-
to-run in individual models and between some of the global models the
general consensus is that the weather will get wetter through much
of next week. A parade of upper level disturbances will move into
Texas from the Gulf pulling in Gulf moisture upping Precipitable
Water values to near 2.0 inches at times. The lift from these
disturbances will interact with the abundant moisture and spread
fairly good rain chances through much of Central Texas for Monday
through Thursday.

Without a main feature to focus on there is a good chance models will
continue to waffle back and forth with rainfall timing and amounts,
but the wetter pattern is not only welcome drought relief but also a
break from the temperatures. With the increased cloudcover highs for
Monday through Thursday will be near or just below seasonal normals,
dropping into the low 90s Tuesday. In terms of rainfall amounts
generally models are currently running anywhere between 3/4 of an
inch to about 1.5 inches of beneficial rainfall through the middle of
next week. Each day will not be a total washout, including any Labor
Day activities as activity is expected to be scattered showers and
storms that will mainly be diurnally driven. With the deeper moisture
and high precipitable water values a few tropical downpours are
possible, along with storms producing gusty outflow winds.

Ntxw wrote:Today is the last day to post in this thread. I will open the Fall thread at midnight marking the end of 2018 meteorological Summer and begin meteorological Fall.

Aww shucks ... I sure am going to miss talking about what a wonderful summer we had this year.