Texas Fall 2018

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BrokenGlassRepublicn
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2161 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:10 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Air is warm and juicy on this last day of November. Will be interesting to see how far west the severe threat advances this evening.

Steve McCauley is saying there is a pretty strong cap over the metro today that is weaker to our east. He says it is likely that storms will fire to our east, which is consistent with the latest HRRR run. Too bad. Feels like you could drink the air.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2162 Postby DonWrk » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:28 pm

Wow, if only we were two states up in Nebraska...what a storm they’re gonna get!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2163 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:52 pm

Euro has a lot of rain again and then a brief window for a little snow in N TX late next Friday into Saturday
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2164 Postby gboudx » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:38 pm

Brent wrote:Euro has a lot of rain again and then a brief window for a little snow in N TX late next Friday into Saturday


Which website(s) are you using? I read so much about the weather that is always seemingly a week+ away. If I get bored, I may start saving some model pics, then see how they change as the week progresses.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2165 Postby orangeblood » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:45 pm

Brent wrote:Euro has a lot of rain again and then a brief window for a little snow in N TX late next Friday into Saturday


Numerous EPS members are going wild with this system late next week....all about the strength of the HP, if it can get into the high 1030's + like some of the EPS members are showing, this storm could be a big one for someone in the southern plains!!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2166 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:23 pm

gboudx wrote:
Brent wrote:Euro has a lot of rain again and then a brief window for a little snow in N TX late next Friday into Saturday


Which website(s) are you using? I read so much about the weather that is always seemingly a week+ away. If I get bored, I may start saving some model pics, then see how they change as the week progresses.


Weather.us is good for free euro
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2167 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:37 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Brent wrote:Euro has a lot of rain again and then a brief window for a little snow in N TX late next Friday into Saturday


Numerous EPS members are going wild with this system late next week....all about the strength of the HP, if it can get into the high 1030's + like some of the EPS members are showing, this storm could be a big one for someone in the southern plains!!!


Yes. The storm is a baja kicker. If there is more cold air it's going to be fun and games!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2168 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Brent wrote:Euro has a lot of rain again and then a brief window for a little snow in N TX late next Friday into Saturday


Numerous EPS members are going wild with this system late next week....all about the strength of the HP, if it can get into the high 1030's + like some of the EPS members are showing, this storm could be a big one for someone in the southern plains!!!


Yes. The storm is a baja kicker. If there is more cold air it's going to be fun and games!


Theres a couple really really good members down here but quite a few more up in Oklahoma... Big dogs not little snows

Hmmm that looks like the 0z still the 12z should be better
Last edited by Brent on Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2169 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:44 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Numerous EPS members are going wild with this system late next week....all about the strength of the HP, if it can get into the high 1030's + like some of the EPS members are showing, this storm could be a big one for someone in the southern plains!!!


Yes. The storm is a baja kicker. If there is more cold air it's going to be fun and games!


Theres a couple really really good members down here but quite a few more up in Oklahoma... Big dogs not little snows


In about a week we will be in Phase 2 of the MJO for which during DJF is a cold and moist phase. Particularly in the southwest. After that the mid December mild will follow with P3 and P4. After that there is evidence of stratosphere disruptions. This is about what happened in 2009. It was a fairly active start in December then mild mid month followed by the active pattern towards the last week or so.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2170 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:53 pm

Number 8 ftw :double: :lol: lot of big ones nearby

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2171 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:14 pm

This is playing out as expected, amazing how evident this pattern has been for almost a month out. All the players are there for a big event. We are looking at a multi inch liquid equivalent event with a building Plains high let your imagination carry you from there. Temps all of next week will be sub 50 with lows in the 20s for NE TX so ground temps should be pretty cold. Hopefully this is our big one, been a long time since we have had a widespread 3+ inch snow in N and NE TX.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2172 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:18 pm

Bob Rose:

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

A persistent flow off the Gulf of Mexico has brought an unseasonably mild and humid air mass to Central and South Texas. Friday morning's low temperature was in the mid and upper 60s for most locations along and east of Interstate 35. Overnight temperatures were a bit cooler across the Hill Country, with most lows in the mid-50s to low 60s. Widespread low clouds developed across the region late Thursday night and have persisted into midday Friday. These clouds are forecast to thin early this afternoon, allowing the sky to become mostly sunny. Breezy and warm conditions will develop, with the temperature climbing close to 80 degrees. Expect a south breeze at 10-15 mph. With low-level moisture levels increasing, there will be a 20 percent chance for the development of a few widely scattered rain showers for areas east of Interstate 35 this afternoon. Rainfall, if any, should total less than a tenth of an inch.

Forecasters are monitoring a vigorous trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that was located Friday morning over the Four Corners region. The trough is moving to the east and is forecast to reach the Texas Panhandle late this evening, turning northeast into Oklahoma and the southern Plains late tonight into Saturday morning. While this system is expected to pass well north of our region, it will help drag a Pacific cold front across the area overnight. The front is forecast to track across the Hill Country late this evening, reaching the Austin area around midnight and pushing off the coast before daybreak Saturday. Atmospheric conditions appear somewhat favorable for a thin line of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front about the time it reaches the Interstate 35 corrido. The probability for rain will be around 30 percent for locations along and to the east of Interstate 35. Should thunderstorms develop, there is a small chance for a few of the storms to become severe, mainly for the area between Austin and La Grange. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms through Saturday morning. Severe weather threats will primarily be strong and damaging winds along with large hail. The rain and storms are forecast to quickly push to the east and exit the entire region before sunrise Saturday. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less. Drier and slightly cooler air will funnel into the region behind the cold front. Low temperatures Saturday morning will be in the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and be close to 60 degrees towards the coast.

Sunny, breezy and mild weather conditions will develop Saturday in the wake of Friday night's cold front. Very dry air spreading into the region will allow the temperature to warm to the low and middle 70s. Expect a westerly breeze at 10-15 mph throughout the day. Wind speeds should decrease by Saturday night. Lows Sunday morning will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and be around 50-52 degrees towards the coast.

With afternoon relative humidity values slated to plummet into the 20-30 percent range Saturday afternoon, the combination of very dry air and breezy conditions will causeelevated fire weather conditions across the entire region from late Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon.

Sunday's weather is shaping up to be sunny, mild and very pleasant. High temperatures will be in the low and mid-70s. Expect a southwesterly breeze at 5-10 mph. Lows Sunday morning will range from the low 40s across the Hill Country to around 50 degrees towards the coast.

Forecast solutions call for a large trough of low pressure to push east out of the Rockies late Sunday. This will allow a Canadian cold front to plummet south into Texas out of the western US Sunday night into Monday morning. With very little moisture in place, no rain is expected with the front. Sunny, breezy and noticeably cooler conditions are forecast to develop Monday as the cold front pushes southeast into the Gulf. Monday's temperature is forecast to warm only to around 58-62 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions with mid-60s towards the coast.

Sunny, dry and cool weather conditions are forecast Tuesday through Wednesday as a large dome of Canadian high pressure settles south across Texas. A light freeze is expected across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Lows both mornings are forecast to be around 28-30 degrees across the Hill Country and around 31-34 degrees across Central Texas. Lows across the coastal plains region will be near 36-40 degrees. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly in the mid-50s.

There will be change in the weather pattern beginning next Thursday when a large trough of low pressure off the coast of southern California begins to track to the east. Forecast solutions call for the trough to move across Texas next Friday, turning northeast into the Plains states Friday night into Saturday. Moisture will increase off the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, leading to the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. There will be an increasing chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night as the trough moves across the state. Weather conditions appear favorable for the development of widespread rain and thunderstorms, with the rain tapering off next Saturday. Forecast solutions suggest totals of 1-2 inches will be possible across the region Thursday through Saturday morning as the trough moves over the area. In addition, some strong storms will be possible. Dry weather looks to follow next weekend.

Forecasts call for chilly air to spread south into Texas beginning next Saturday as the large trough of low pressure exits to the northeast. This chilly air may bring a freeze to the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas next Sunday and Monday mornings. High temperatures next weekend look to be in the low and mid-50s, with low temperatures in the 30s. The chilly weather is predicted to last into the early part of the week of December 10th.

Tropical Weather Update

Today marks the last official day of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic and there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next several days.

In total, this year's hurricane season produced 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, of which 2 were "major" hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5). An average season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This year's season will be remembered most for hurricanes Florence and Michael, which caused significant damage in the southeastern US.


Venus Shining at its Brightest in Early December

In early December, 2018, the dazzling planet Venus will be shining at its greatest brilliancy in the morning sky. Venus is always the third-brightest celestial object, after the sun and moon. Even so, Venus' brightness, now at maximum, is some 2 1/2 times greater than Venus at minimum brightness.

Because Venus is an inferior planet – orbiting the sun inside Earth's orbit, this world shows the whole range of phases, much like Earth's moon. Perhaps it'll surprise you that Venus shines most brightly when its disk is only about 25 percent illuminated by sunshine, as viewed from Earth. Venus' disk will become 100 percent illuminated in sunshine some 8 1/2 months from now (August 14, 2019). But at that time, Venus will be nearly five times farther from Earth than it is right now. Hence, the illuminated portion of Venus' disk will actually cover less square area of sky, and Venus will be less bright when seen as fully illuminated next August.

Thus you might see that greater brilliancy for Venus is a trade-off between the apparent size of the planet's disk, and the extent to which we see the disk illuminated by sunlight.

You can't miss spotting Venus blazing away in the eastern sky in the period just before sunrise. (courtesy Earthsky.org)

Have a good weekend.

Bob
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2173 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:46 pm

Pretty big changes on the latest HRRR with it now showing multiple supercells firing in western DFW and soundings showing EHI pushing 4.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2174 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:48 pm

18z GFS took a step towards the Euro for late next week.

We need this to work out and kick off the winter with 100+ pages. Just a few hours left until the move.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2175 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:56 pm

I am watching how the northern stream can pair up with the So Cal low.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2176 Postby orangeblood » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:18z GFS took a step towards the Euro for late next week.

We need this to work out and kick off the winter with 100+ pages. Just a few hours left until the move.


Models are starting to pick up on the snow pack in the central plains that will deepen over the next few days....Arctic HPs love to anchor over stable deep snow pack. Models have been pushing it off to the east too quickly over past few runs
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2177 Postby Captmorg70 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:13 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Pretty big changes on the latest HRRR with it now showing multiple supercells firing in western DFW and soundings showing EHI pushing 4.


22z has them too. How strong could these storms be if they form?
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2178 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:18 pm

Captmorg70 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Pretty big changes on the latest HRRR with it now showing multiple supercells firing in western DFW and soundings showing EHI pushing 4.


22z has them too. How strong could these storms be if they form?


If they fire and have time to mature, then all modes of svr wx would be possible.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2179 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:21 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Pretty big changes on the latest HRRR with it now showing multiple supercells firing in western DFW and soundings showing EHI pushing 4.


22z has them too. How strong could these storms be if they form?


If they fire and have time to mature, then all modes of svr wx would be possible.


ironic after the SPC moved the slight and enhanced to the east too

Hard forecast
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2180 Postby Captmorg70 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:25 pm

Tornado watch just went up for NTX

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0429.html

Image
Last edited by Captmorg70 on Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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