Texas Fall 2018

[TheProfessor]

This week has been very cold. More like the heart of winter than late fall. We're going to have a nice warm up the next few days, but man, the Euro is scaring me for next weekend. Highs in the single digits next weekend on the 12z run. I'm not ready for that kind of cold.

Well that’s what you get for living so far north lol it’s inevitable.

Yes in January, Single digits temperatures at the beginning of December is pushing it. Although thankfully it's been cold just about all month so I'm already in midwinter mode lol.

[SnowintheFalls]

Euro is so close to a DFW winter storm next Friday

It would be great transferring to the winter thread with the threat of wintry weather. Let's just hope it continues to trend in our favor.

[Cpv17]

Euro is so close to a DFW winter storm next Friday

It would be great transferring to the winter thread with the threat of wintry weather. Let's just hope it continues to trend in our favor.

Last year at this time our winter thread was already really busy. Not so much this year.

[Brent]

Euro is so close to a DFW winter storm next Friday

It would be great transferring to the winter thread with the threat of wintry weather. Let's just hope it continues to trend in our favor.

we officially move Saturday

[weatherdude1108]

This was a more more witty and positive outlook for late next week in the rain chances. I've echoed this sentiment more times than I can count. I've seen it simultaneously snow, sleet, rain, and hail during a dust storm in Lubbock, getting my car muddy.


(yes we are going to
flip from being 10-15 degrees above normal on Friday to 4 days later
being that much below normal - Gotta love living in Texas!).


000
FXUS64 KEWX 292040
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Southerly flow at the surface has kept moisture pooled across South
Central Texas. With winds going light again tonight we expect fog to
develop overnight into Friday morning similar to what we saw today.
Fog should start shortly after midnight across the Coastal Plains and
spread northward into the I-35 corridor, Hill Country, and Edwards
Plateau. Dense fog will again be a possibility before winds pick up
Friday and the fog mixes out mid-morning. Friday afternoon will be
partly to mostly cloudy ahead of an approaching cold front. With
compressional warming and westerly flow aloft highs on Friday will
warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. This will bring them
within about 3 to 5 degrees of record highs at the 4 main climate
sites. Record highs at the sites for tomorrow are all in the low to
mid 80s and date back to between 1950 and 1970. The dryline will
arrive late in the day. With drier air in the mid levels and a decent
inversion in place isolated shower and thunderstorm activity should
be limited to east of I-35. Rain chances across the Hill Country and
points east of I-35 continue into the overnight hours as the front
arrives and quickly pushes eastward. The best upper level lift,
moisture, and instability will be across east Texas and the ArkLaTex
so all we should see in South Central Texas is isolated showers and a
few thunderstorms. While this front has a more Pacific airmass
behind it lows Friday night will be about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than
tonights lows. Both highs and lows continue to run well above
normal...and will until Monday`s front arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Westerlies continue behind the front/dryline combo and as the main
upper trough moves across the Central Plains on Saturday the pressure
gradient tightens resulting in increased winds across the Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country. With drier air (afternoon RH values
dropping to near 25%) filtering in elevated fire weather will be a
concern across these areas Saturday afternoon. Other than the fire
weather issues skies will be clear, temperatures will be warm and
winds will be breezy. It will be a great Saturday weather wise! Winds
decrease on Sunday, but it will generally be a copy of Saturday with
sunny skies and warm conditions. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday
will be cool due to the clear skies and light winds.

The next front will arrive Monday morning. With little to no moisture
return the front, which will have a colder airmass behind it, will
have a tough time producing any precipitation. Have taken out PoPs
completely for Monday and Monday night with this forecast package
based on a drying trend continued in the 12Z GFS and 00z ECMWF.
Surface high pressure will build south across the U.S. Central Plains
Monday through Wednesday. The result will be a return to below
normal temperatures just in time for the beginning of December. Highs
on Monday behind the front will be near or just below normal, but
Tuesday and Wednesday will see highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s.
This will be about 10-15 degrees below normal (yes we are going to
flip from being 10-15 degrees above normal on Friday to 4 days later
being that much below normal - Gotta love living in Texas!). Parts of
the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau could come close to the freezing
mark both Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.

The next weather maker will arrive on scene Thursday. A stout trough
of low pressure will dig south out of California across northern
Mexico and approach Texas Thursday into Friday. Lift ahead of the
system will bring the return of rain chances Thursday across much of
the area. The models do continue to show good rain chances with this
system as the base of the trough traverses across Texas next Friday.
Being a week out it is way too early to start looking at details
other than to say the end of next week looks wet.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Almost 80 today.

[Cerlin]

I swear most of the models said it would hit shot 74 today but it’s 77 right now where I’m at in Frisco. Yikes!

[Brent]

I swear most of the models said it would hit shot 74 today but it’s 77 right now where I’m at in Frisco. Yikes!

78 at the airport... gotta love SW winds


Increasing clouds ahead of the next system Wednesday and Thursday
will keep high temperatures cool and near 50 degrees, but lows
should get back up above freezing before any precipitation arrives
Thursday. The next system looks very dynamic so it could produce a lot
of rain, or if the warm sector can advance far enough north,
maybe some severe weather for the southeastern zones. We may have
to watch for winter weather potential on the backside of this
system across the northern zones Friday, but this would be more
likely to occur much farther north.

[bubba hotep]

Also, SPC has portions of DFW in D3 Slight:

https://i.ibb.co/Jndr44q/TX-swody3.png

FWD has gone from 20% storms to 70% svr storms - that escalated quickly!

[wxman22]

18z FV3 looks even nicer, due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. I'm liking the trend's but its far away still...

[bubba hotep]

18z FV3 looks even nicer, due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. I'm liking the trend's but its far away still...

https://i.ibb.co/x6r3rZC/fv3p-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-33.png

My favorite wx nerd saying from my time back east, "the models lock onto the big ones early!"

[bubba hotep]

18z FV3 looks even nicer, due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. I'm liking the trend's but its far away still...

https://i.ibb.co/x6r3rZC/fv3p-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-33.png

My favorite wx nerd saying from my time back east, "the models lock onto the big ones early!"

[Brent]

18z FV3 looks even nicer, due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. I'm liking the trend's but its far away still...

https://i.ibb.co/x6r3rZC/fv3p-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-33.png

My favorite wx nerd saying from my time back east, "the models lock onto the big ones early!"

https://i.ibb.co/WV10TKP/Capture-2018-11-29-17-56-09-1.png

Oh look a DFW special 8 days out

[gpsnowman]

At least it is under 10!!!

[SnowintheFalls]

Out of curiosity, what is the difference in the GFS model and the FV3-GFS?

[Cpv17]

Out of curiosity, what is the difference in the GFS model and the FV3-GFS?

I’d like to know this as well!!

[Brent]

Out of curiosity, what is the difference in the GFS model and the FV3-GFS?

I’d like to know this as well!!

Only thing i know is its the "upgraded" GFS and will be the new GFS soon. Now whether its better or not is the question

[Ntxw]

Out of curiosity, what is the difference in the GFS model and the FV3-GFS?

FV3 will replace the GFS. Not so much that it is a whole new weather model but rather the computing and physics of the GFS will change to the new system. Better data assimilation allows the new dynamic core to have better skill scores, trying to close the gap on the Euro. Each year essentially the GFS gets improvements in calculating formulas and computing power but this will be the first nearly complete change of the core dynamics of how the model is run. It's like gutting a car for a new and better engine.

[SnowintheFalls]

Out of curiosity, what is the difference in the GFS model and the FV3-GFS?

FV3 will replace the GFS. Not so much that it is a whole new weather model but rather the computing and physics of the GFS will change to the new system. Better data assimilation allows the new dynamic core to have better skill scores, trying to close the gap on the Euro. Each year essentially the GFS gets improvements in calculating formulas and computing power but this will be the first nearly complete change of the core dynamics of how the model is run. It's like gutting a car for a new and better engine.

Thanks Ntxw! I hope it is an improvement over the current GFS.

[orangeblood]

That is one potent airmass on the FV3 - Arctic Origin HP with a deep snowcover in the central plains...hmmmm????