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Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:16 pm
by Cpv17
SnowintheFalls wrote:Ntxw wrote:SnowintheFalls wrote:Out of curiosity, what is the difference in the GFS model and the FV3-GFS?
FV3 will replace the GFS. Not so much that it is a whole new weather model but rather the computing and physics of the GFS will change to the new system. Better data assimilation allows the new dynamic core to have better skill scores, trying to close the gap on the Euro. Each year essentially the GFS gets improvements in calculating formulas and computing power but this will be the first nearly complete change of the core dynamics of how the model is run. It's like gutting a car for a new and better engine.
Thanks Ntxw! I hope it is an improvement over the GFS.
Well the FV3 did a very good job with the last artic blast we had a couple weeks ago. It was the first model to latch onto the cold.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:17 pm
by Brent
Before we get to any cold weather the HRRR has a line of supercells over the metro after dark tomorrow
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:14 pm
by bubba hotep
Euro Weeklies are much improved from the Monday run.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:21 pm
by Haris
Yeah was just about to post that. Quite chilly for the S
Side note: For the month of November, I have ended up with 2.19" of rain. 1" below normal. Most of it came during the 1st week. Not terrible but rain is still overdue
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:23 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
So maybe the winter folklore is true. Tornadoes and severe weather mean snow in a week. It happened in houston earlier this month!
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:30 pm
by Brent
0z GFS is totally different than the 18z FV GFS... zero cold air
CMC also not even close
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:57 pm
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:0z GFS is totally different than the 18z FV GFS... zero cold air
CMC also not even close
I’m sure it’ll change 100 times.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:59 pm
by Cpv17
The last few runs of the GFS are really cutting back on rain totals for next weeks system as well. Looking more like the Euro now.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:10 am
by Captmorg70
Cpv17 wrote:The last few runs of the GFS are really cutting back on rain totals for next weeks system as well. Looking more like the Euro now.
The CMC has 4” in DFW in the same time frame. With a week out I think right now we just need to keep tabs on the system and the cold. Run to run there will be change. Same way the Dec 3rd system is still changing back a forth.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:24 am
by Brent
FV GFS warmer at 0z no wintry in DFW
Long way to go with this one
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:20 am
by SnowintheFalls
Brent wrote:FV GFS warmer at 0z no wintry in DFW
Long way to go with this one
At least the FV3 is showing cold nearby though.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:46 am
by Brent
Euro is mostly rain but looks like there may be a little and I mean little backside snow as it ends next Saturday morning, good snow up in Oklahoma
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:56 am
by Haris
good euro run. a lot wetter too
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:09 am
by Cpv17
Haris wrote:good euro run. a lot wetter too
Nice! Hope this is the start of a good trend.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:16 am
by Cpv17
My Weatherbug app is giving me a 30% chance of a rain/snow mix here in Wharton for next Saturday. Makes me wonder what model they are using cuz I haven’t seen any that have snow this far south. It’s kind of weird cuz usually that app is conservative.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:14 am
by gpsnowman
Air is warm and juicy on this last day of November. Will be interesting to see how far west the severe threat advances this evening.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:12 am
by bubba hotep
Hi res models don't really show anything for DFW today but the Euro hits NE areas pretty hard.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:16 am
by Ntxw
Friendly reminder today is the last day to post in this thread. At midnight all discussion will be moved to the Winter Thread for meteorological Winter Dec-Jan-Feb!
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:59 am
by CaptinCrunch
On this last day of November 2018 the current monthly mean is 52.0 @ -4.8 below average. We wont get as warm today with the cloud cover so November is locked to end with a below average mean.
This will make Fall 2018 for NTX the coolest since 2009, and wettest on record
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:19 am
by Ntxw
CaptinCrunch wrote:On this last day of November 2018 the current monthly mean is 52.0 @ -4.8 below average. We wont get as warm today with the cloud cover so November is locked to end with a below average mean.
This will make Fall 2018 for NTX the coolest since 2009, and wettest on record
Today will likely keep the average up a little bit for the month but as you said well below normal from start to finish. In fact Fall 2018 will finish somewhere a little bit more than 65F average which barely misses top 10. 65F is right at #10. Considering how warm Falls have been the past 20-25 years it's been a long, long time since a true cold Fall..