Texas Spring 2019

[Ntxw]

Timing is actually the best it has been (for severe) tomorrow. Despite the risk percentage, if it were to overperform tomorrow could be it for North Texas.

[dhweather]

Timing is actually the best it has been (for severe) tomorrow. Despite the risk percentage, if it were to overperform tomorrow could be it for North Texas.

True - it seems most systems have moved through the metroplex at diurnal minimums

[rwfromkansas]

Definitely looks like a better severe setup depending on early convection. Doesn’t look like much early in the day currently. Tornado risk is technically pretty low but that hasn’t stopped things nearly daily.

[Brent]

best guess right now for the metroplex, looks like a broken line for the afternoon that would have the highest severe potential(or if anything can get going out ahead) that moves really slowly and transitions towards a flood threat in the evening(especially north/east)

[TheProfessor]

A lot of my friends from school were caught off guard by the tornado event last night. Ohio had only had a slight risk and only the HRRR had produced anything close to what happened. What happened last night is insanely rare for Ohio so a lot of the people there are in disbelief. So far I haven't heard of anyone I know directly impacted, so that's good news.

[weatherdude1108]

A lot of my friends from school were caught off guard by the tornado event last night. Ohio had only had a slight risk and only the HRRR had produced anything close to what happened. What happened last night is insanely rare for Ohio so a lot of the people there are in disbelief. So far I haven't heard of anyone I know directly impacted, so that's good news.

We know some friends (husband, wife, and two kids) that live in Beavercreek, just east of Dayton I guess. They said they had a shelter-in-place and their power went out. They were safe.

A post by the wife said, "Very lucky no fatalities in Beavercreek. 1 dead in neighboring town and 40+ hospitalized."

But they got their power restored just before 9am this morning. All of the stuff in their freezer/fridge was fine, including all the ice cream they just bought (husband LOLd about that;)), "We had just bought several cartons of milk and a few boxes of ice cream sandwiches. It looks like they made it! "

[Brent]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
304 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

TXZ092>095-102>106-117>120-131>133-290900-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.A.0004.190529T1200Z-190530T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Wise-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Parker-
Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-
Including the cities of Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham,
Paris, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville,
Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville,
Commerce, Cooper, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington,
Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, and Burleson
304 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Texas and
northeast Texas, including the following areas, in north
central Texas, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Fannin, Grayson,
Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Tarrant, and
Wise. In northeast Texas, Delta and Lamar.

* From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning

* Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts
possible.

* Flash flooding may occur in urban and poor drainage areas. Heavy
rainfall may also cause flooding of creeks, streams and rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued for
your area.

&&

$$

[weatherdude1108]

Getting thunder here!

Line of thundershowers to my west. Weird(?).

Raining heavy drops. My wife just gave a look saying, "That's really loud!"lol

[weatherdude1108]

The culprit.

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
844 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Made a quick update to include isolated thunderstorms for areas
between the northern Hill Country and the I-35 corridor as an upper
short-wave moves across the area this evening. Another short wave is
forecast to move across central Texas overnight and brings chances
for storms across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Most of the
energy associated with this second wave is forecast to stay well to
the north of the I-35 corridor to keep the Austin and San Antonio
metro areas dry through the overnight period.

[Brent]

battle of the hi-res models for DFW tomorrow afternoon

NAM has a line(and has consistently been linear)(although it does have a couple cells out ahead)

HRRR has quite a few supercells and is much less linear

[Brent]

From the new day 1

AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST

[bubba hotep]

[rwfromkansas]

Morning MCS west...unexpectedly. Surprised they kept enhanced.

[Ntxw]

Morning MCS west...unexpectedly. Surprised they kept enhanced.

The MCS will slowly progress east. Key today (for severe) is what if any cells pop ahead of it as it approaches.

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like it will get western Tarrant at 11 or so, so still pretty early in the day. Will likely miss any supercells ahead. The forecast yesterday called for only isolated cells until a line in the evening.

[funster]

Looks a little bow echo shaped currently in the warned part of the storms. Could be some strong winds in DFW later if it holds.

[rwfromkansas]

The first line is very small now for the part going through DFW. May have little impact on later if so.

I am getting more concerned.

[Brent]

Definitely concerned about supercells

[WacoWx]

Looks like the forward progression of this initial line is slowing down as it gets closer to DFW.

[rwfromkansas]

Definite rotation on storm near Weatherford.